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Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03OTTAWA274
2003-01-24 22:22:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa
Cable title:  

YOUR JANUARY 30 MEETING WITH CANADIAN FOREIGN

Tags:   PREL  MARR  ETRD  PTER  CVIS  CA  IZ  KN  VE 
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						C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 000274 

SIPDIS

FOR SECRETARY POWELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/23/2013
TAGS: PREL MARR ETRD PTER CVIS CA IZ KN VE
SUBJECT: YOUR JANUARY 30 MEETING WITH CANADIAN FOREIGN
MINISTER GRAHAM

REF: (A) 02 STATE 234708 (B) 02 STATE 234719 (C)
OTTAWA 178

Classified By: Deputy Chief of Mission Stephen R. Kelly,
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

-------
SUMMARY
-------



1. (C) Your January 30 meeting with Foreign Minister Bill
Graham will be an important opportunity to bolster Canadian
support for our Iraq policy. The Canadian Government's
natural preference is for giving the inspectors more time and
for the UN Security Council to reach consensus, but it wants
to stand with the U.S. in the end. Like in other countries,
public skepticism is growing here over military action
against Iraq. Graham needs to hear the same message that
President Bush gave the UNGA on September 12, that this is a
test of the UN's ability to impose its will and to respond
effectively to a crisis. In addition to Iraq, Graham will
want to discuss North Korea, Latin America, missile defense,
softwood lumber trade, and entry/exit controls at border.
END SUMMARY.



--------------------------


IRAQ


--------------------------





2. (C) While Canada's position on Iraq has not changed since
your November 14 Ottawa meeting with Graham (refs. A and B),
divisions among allies on the Security Council and within
Canada's Liberal Party have increased pressure on the
Chretien Government. The Canadian position remains that it
will participate in a UN-blessed operation against Iraq, and
that it is reserving judgement on participation if there is
no explicit Security Council approval. Canadian military
planners have been in Tampa since early January, consulting
with CENTCOM planners about a possible Canadian contribution.
Publicly, Chretien does not want to admit the possibility
that Canada might participate without UN blessing, and he
reined in Defense Minister McCallum for doing so after
McCallum's January 9 meeting with Defense Secretary Rumsfeld
(ref. C).



3. (C) Claude Laverdure, the Prime Minister's Foreign Policy
Advisor, told the DCM on January 17 that Canada could indeed
support military action in Iraq absent a second UNSC
resolution, especially in a case where 11 or 12 Security
Council members think there has been a material breach but
China or another country vetoes a resolution. Laverdure said
there should be an "international consensus," but not
necessarily UN action. Chretien and Graham both told the
press on January 23 that there is not yet justification for a
war on Iraq, and that the inspectors need to keep up the
pressure.



--------------------------


NORTH KOREA


--------------------------





4. (C) Graham has been a vocal critic of North Korea since
the October announcement on its nuclear weapons program.
Canada pushed hard for a G-8 statement during its Presidency,
and called for the International Atomic Energy Agency to

refer North Korea's actions to the UN Security Council.
Canada established diplomatic relations with North Korea in
2001, and North Korean diplomats have been searching for an
Embassy location in Ottawa. Canada is continuing
humanitarian assistance to North Korea, but otherwise the
bilateral relationship is on hold.



--------------------------


LATIN AMERICA


--------------------------





5. (SBU) Graham will brief you on his January 20-21 trip to
Brasilia, where he met with Foreign Minister Celso Amorim and
other newly appointed members of the Brazilian government.
He will also want to discuss the situations in Venezuela,
Colombia and Haiti. Canada supports the mediation efforts
of OAS Secretary General Gaviria in Venezuela, and has called
for an end to political violence in all three countries.



--------------------------


MISSILE DEFENSE


--------------------------





6. (C) Canadian officials from Foreign Affairs and Defense
will be taking part in missile defense consultations with
U.S. counterparts on January 28. Graham and McCallum plan to
brief Cabinet following these consultations, and come to a
decision sooner rather than later on Canadaian participation.
While missile defense remains a controversial issue in
Canada becaue of arms control concerns, the GoC realizes that
the train is leaving the station and that other allies are
getting on board. Graham may also note that our new
binational Planning Group is up and running at NORAD, and
that this will help us coordinate our military response to
terrorist threats to North America.



--------------------------


SOFTWOOD LUMBER


--------------------------





7. (SBU) Under U.S. trade law, the Department of Commerce can
determine that the circumstances leading to a U.S. industry
request for countervailing duties have materially changed.
Having made that determination through a "changed
circumstances" review, Commerce can reduce or eliminate the
duties in question without further formal action by the
affected U.S. industry. Except for British Columbia,
lumber-producing provinces have been agnostic about current
efforts to encourage changes in provincial lumber policies
through this review process. Commerce has set February 14 as
the deadline for publication of the draft policy bulletin
that will be the basis on which provinces may apply for
changed circumstances reviews. The draft will reflect input
from GOC and provincial officials as well as Canadian and
U.S. industry organizations, and will be open to further
revision during the 30-day comment period ending in
mid-March.



8. (SBU) The changed circumstances review has been useful in
encouraging all the provinces to look for market-oriented
policies that are consistent with their own needs and
forestry management objectives. But the review is only a
small step forward, even if BC manages to take full advantage
of it. At some point we will need to get back to the
negotiating table. The U.S. Government has made it clear to
U.S. industry that we are not interested in border measures
(export taxes or quotas) unless they are temporary and are a
transition to an already negotiated end point. You may wish
to stress this point with Minister Graham if he raises the
issue.



--------------------------


BIOTECH


--------------------------





9. (C) The European Union,s refusal even to accept
applications for new biotech food products is an outrageous
breach of WTO rules, sound science, good governance and
common sense. There is good reason for the United States to
take the matter to a WTO dispute panel. If we do, USTR
Zoellick has a commitment from Canadian Trade Minister Pierre
Pettigrew for Canada to join the United States as a
co-complainant. Graham is generally supportive of Canada,s
being a co-complainant, but it would be useful to reiterate
to him our strong interest in partnering with Canada on this
issue.



--------------------------


BORDER


--------------------------





10. (SBU) Graham may raise the National Security Entry/Exit
Registration System (NSEERS), which you discussed in your
November meeting. NSEERS requires fingerprinting and
registration of certain naturalized Canadian citizens and
landed immigrants seeking admission at U.S. ports of entry.
U.S. law still requires that nationals (including dual
nationals) from an expanding list of "criteria" countries be
registered, but the earlier public controversy over
registration based solely on country of birth has dwindled.
What may now be worrying Graham, as it does Deputy Prime
Minister Manley, is implementation - by 2005 - of a new
entry-exit tracking system for all visitors to the U.S.,
which may include Canadians. Ottawa fears that the
entry-exit system will create huge delays at border
crossings, and continues to seek some sort of exemption or
expedited measures for Canadians.
KELLY