NATO SYG RACE: SPECULATION ABOUT CANADIAN DEPUTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 002261

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2013
TAGS: PREL MARR CA NATO
SUBJECT: NATO SYG RACE: SPECULATION ABOUT CANADIAN DEPUTY
PM MANLEY

REF: USNATO 832

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Brian Flora,
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: While NATO has never before had a
non-European Secretary General, the name of Canadian Deputy
Prime Minister John Manley has now surfaced as a possible
candidate. While we do not have a sense for what Manley's
prospects are in Brussels, we expect that he would jump at
the chance to serve in this prestigious position. The GoC
will be seeking U.S. and European views on a Manley
candidacy, and Manley may want to discuss the NATO SYG
position during an upcoming visit to Washington (date tbd).
END SUMMARY.


2. (U) The Canadian press reported on August 8 that Deputy PM
Manley is being considered as a potential successor to Lord
Robertson as NATO Secretary General. Manley, who is on
vacation, has not yet made any public statement concerning a
potential candidacy. Manley's spokesman said that the Deputy
PM "is not campaigning for this. He's not a candidate. This
idea did not come from us. It's coming out of Brussels and
we're not going to speculate on it any further."


3. (C) Manley, who dropped out of the Liberal Party
leadership race on July 22, in fact told the Ambassador on
July 28 that he was exploring the possibility of becoming
NATO SYG. The timing would work well for Manley, as Paul
Martin (the prohibitive favorite to replace PM Chretien) is
expected to form a new Cabinet when he becomes Prime Minister
sometime in the December 2003 - February 2004 timeframe.
Manley has expressed interest in serving in a Martin
Government, but Martin's plans are unclear and Manley
certainly would not have the vast portfolio he has held over
the past year under Chretien. In addition to being Deputy
Prime Minister, Manley is Finance Minister, Political
Minister for Ontario, and oversees the sensitive U.S./Canada
border file.


4. (C) Manley did a solid job overall during two years
(2000-2002) as Foreign Minister, and shifted Canada's foreign
policy away from Lloyd Axworthy's "human security" agenda and
toward stronger partnership with the U.S. During his
leadership candidacy, Manley called for reforming and
bolstering the United Nations. He is steeped in the Liberal
Party's multilateral tradition, but he has publicly rejected
the anti-American attitudes of some Liberals, including in
the aftermath of the Iraq War. According to unconfirmed
press reports, Manley was one of the Cabinet members who
supported Canadian participation in the war but were
overruled by Chretien.


5. (C) Manley has worked closely with Homeland Security
Secretary Ridge to make the U.S./Canada border more secure

SIPDIS
and more efficient in the wake of September 11. On the
defense front, Manley has admitted that Canada is not pulling
its weight, and in his only budget as Finance Minister he
approved a significant increase in military spending. Manley
has called for Canadian participation in North American
missile defense, and negotiations over a U.S.-Canada
cooperation agreement are ongoing.


6. (C) Manley has not weighed in personally on some of the
key issues confronting NATO, but the GoC shares our
commitment to NATO remaining the pre-eminent security
organization in Europe and has the same concerns as we do
about competing EU efforts (reftel). Canada supports NATO
transformation, including creation of a NATO Response Force,
and is open to NATO taking on out-of-area missions (as in
Afghanistan, where NATO leadership is facilitating Canada's
large contribution to ISAF).
KELLY