(C/NF) CANADA,S LIBERAL LEADERSHIP CONTEST: A RACE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 OTTAWA 001567

SIPDIS

NOFORN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/02/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL CA
SUBJECT: (C/NF) CANADA,S LIBERAL LEADERSHIP CONTEST: A RACE
FOR THE CURE


Classified By: POL M/C BRIAN M. FLORA. REASON 1.5 B and D.


1. (C/NF) SUMMARY. With the official launching in April of
the leadership campaigns of Deputy PM John Manley and Liberal
backbencher Paul Martin, the three-way contest to succeed PM
Jean Chretien -- Canada's race for a political cure -- is
officially on. Though the Liberal Leadership convention is
slated for November, observers believe that Martin,s victory
will be sealed in September when the dozen or so delegates
from each of 301 Liberal ridings across the country are
announced. The trick will be getting Chretien to quit before
his announced date of February 2004 -- a daunting task -- in
order to minimize the transition chaos. Meanwhile, our
meetings with Martin supporters and close advisors indicate a
pragmatic leadership-in-waiting already engaged in damage
control within the GOC and at work on a blueprint for
U.S.-Canada relations. If Martin's May 1 foreign policy
speech is any indication, under his leadership we can expect
a positive change in Canada's handling of the bilateral
agenda. END SUMMARY.


2. (C/NF) A successful businessman and former Finance
Minister, Paul Martin leads the three-way race in campaign
funds, organization and name recognition. Discussions with a
range of Martin supporters, from consultants to Members of
Parliament, and Martin staffers, suggest that PM Chretien,s
likely successor already has a quiet handle on the rudder of
the Canadian ship of state. Chretien's reputation as a
gritty and tenacious politician notwithstanding, we
understand that pro-Martin MPs dominate the Liberal Caucus
and are poised to quash controversial "legacy" initiatives --
such as political party finance reform and, it appears,
marijuana decriminalization -- that would undermine the new
PM,s agenda. Whether the Caucus and the Party can persuade
Chretien to retire early -- for the sake of Party and Country
-- is another question.


3. (C/NF) In his first major foreign policy statement May 1,
Martin painted a pragmatic and business-practical vision of
"Canada,s Role in a Complex World," identifying Canada,s
relationship with the U.S. as a cornerstone of that role. He
pledged a "systematic and coordinated effort to confirm and
strengthen the Canada-US partnership," to include a permanent
Cabinet Committee on Canada-US Relations chaired by the Prime
Minister and a House of Commons Committee on Canada-US
relations. In the context of North American security, Martin
called for development of a comprehensive national security
policy for Canada, the only G-8 country without such a
policy. Though the very fact of articulating a "vision"
would distinguish Martin from Chretien, the one-time Finance
Minister and backbench challenger was also well spoken and
thoughtful in his delivery.


4. (C/NF) A key element of the Martin campaign strategy has
been to emphasize the differences between Martin and the PM,
in both style and content, and to portray a pro-active and
pragmatic (as opposed to reactive and ambivalent) philosophy
of governance. The contrast could not be greater, or easier,
to achieve: While the PM pledges (non-existent) support for
a UN intervention in the Congo, Martin offers to share
federal gas tax revenues with Canada,s beleaguered,
cash-hungry cities. Similarly, as Martin and his advisors
focus on a blueprint to re-invigorate the US-Canada bilateral
relationship (6 months ahead of the convention),Chretien
seizes the international venue of the G-8 summit to sharply
criticize the economic leadership of President Bush and boast
about Canada,s economic success. Fortunately, if anecdotal
evidence and media comments contain a shred of truth, so far
the PM is not winning the PR battle.


5. (C/NF) Veteran observers have speculated that the
three-way leadership contest is a fig leaf to avoid the
"un-Canadian" and "un-Liberal" appearance of a Martin
coronation, and probably involves behind-the-scenes
agreements among the PMO, the Liberal Party and the
candidates themselves. A retired former Canadian
Ambassador-turned-consultant who claims to "know" Chretien
says that such political arrangements are not unusual and
would be desirable for the sake of image among the Canadian
public. Deputy PM John Manley's stake in such an arrangement
would be to develop his prospects for a post-Martin Prime
Ministership (visibility, experience etc.) whereas Heritage
Minister Sheila Copps' likely reward might be a prestigious
"permanent" (to age 75) appointment -- perhaps as Senator --
that would guarantee her income to retirement age and a
generous government pension. Proponents of this theory point
to the recent and unexpected retirement of a senior Senator
-- at Chretien's "request"-- as paving the way for such
rewards to loyalists.


6. (C/NF) COMMENT: With a majority of Liberal MPs (including
Cabinet Ministers) openly in the Martin camp, as well as
Liberal Party President Stephen LeDrew, the logical reality
is that PM Chretien no longer controls the House Caucus.
This could explain his bizarre anti-American public musings
-- the only thing under his control, and with the added
benefit of making PR mischief for the growing majority only
too eager to push him out the door. In this regard, we
should not underestimate Chretien's capacity to manipulate
the system if it serves his purpose, including to prorogue
the Parliament until after the November election and/or
sticking around as PM some three months after Paul Martin is
elected Liberal Leader. At the same time, at least there is a
light at the end of the tunnel. END COMMENT.
CELLUCCI