CANADIAN CABINET DISCUSSES MISSILE DEFENSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001284

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2013
TAGS: MARR PREL PARM CA
SUBJECT: CANADIAN CABINET DISCUSSES MISSILE DEFENSE

REF: (A) OTTAWA 1123 (B) OTTAWA 492 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Brian Flora,
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (C) The Canadian Cabinet discussed missile defense
cooperation with the U.S. in its May 6 meeting, but reached
no conclusion and will continue discussions on May 13.
Foreign Minister Graham and Defense Minister McCallum briefed
Cabinet and encouraged a decision to engage in missile
defense negotations with the U.S. Deputy Prime Minister
Manley told the Ambassador after the meeting that a consensus
seems to be forming in favor of missile defense negotiations,
and that some Cabinet officials whom he expected to be
opposed were grudgingly supportive. He also noted that
Heritage Minister Sheila Copps, who is publicly opposed to
Canadian participation in missile defense, did not attend the
meeting.


2. (C) Foreign Affairs sources told us that the lack of a
Cabinet decision did not indicate a change in course. Given
"differing views" and other topics on the Cabinet agenda,
there simply was not enough time to hear from all Cabinet
members who wanted to speak on missile defense. They
cautioned that there will be intense debate in the days
ahead, including at the Liberal MPs' weekly caucus meeting on
May 7. But they expected Cabinet to approve a negotiating
mandate on May 13, and said that senior Canadian officials
(probably Foreign Affairs Assistant Deputy Minister (ADM) Jim
Wright and Defense ADM Ken Calder) would want to visit
Washington in the following days for preliminary discussions.



3. (C) Up until now, the GoC has carefully avoided taking a
position on missile defense. Chretien made his first
positive public comments on May 5, telling Commons that
"there has been an evolution in this file" with Russia and
China toning down their opposition, and saying that the GoC
is reconsidering the program. A few Liberal and opposition
MPs immediately responded, criticizing missile defense as
leading to a new arms race. The chairman of the Foreign
Affairs Committee recalled that the Committee had recommended
against participation as recently as December.


4. (C) Missile defense has also become an issue in the race
to succeed Chretien, which will be decided at the Liberal
Party leadership convention in November. Last week,
leadership frontrunner Paul Martin announced his support for
missile defense cooperation with the U.S., which prompted
Heritage Minister Copps, another leadership candidate, to
reiterate her opposition. Deputy Prime Minister Manley, the
third Liberal leadership contender, is known to support
Canadian participation in missile defense but has not yet
gone public.


5. (C) COMMENT: Graham and McCallum agreed in October that it
made sense for Canada to participate in North American
missile defense, but this proposed policy shift has been
closely held until now (reftels). Martin's endorsement
lessens opposition within caucus, as most Liberal MPs want to
stay onside with him. There will be much criticism in coming
days by opposition MPs and journalists, who charge that the
Government's shift is an attempt to curry favor with the U.S.
after the fallout over Iraq. But with Chretien apparently on
board, we expect to finally get a decision from Cabinet on
May 13 to proceed with negotiations.
CELLUCCI