Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03OTTAWA1164
2003-04-25 19:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Ottawa
Cable title:  

MEPP: CANADIAN VIEWS ON POST-IRAQ DYNAMIC,

Tags:  PREL PREF CA MEPP 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001164 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2013
TAGS: PREL PREF CA MEPP
SUBJECT: MEPP: CANADIAN VIEWS ON POST-IRAQ DYNAMIC,
CONFERENCE ON PALESTINIAN REFUGEES


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Brian Flora,
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L OTTAWA 001164

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/22/2013
TAGS: PREL PREF CA MEPP
SUBJECT: MEPP: CANADIAN VIEWS ON POST-IRAQ DYNAMIC,
CONFERENCE ON PALESTINIAN REFUGEES


Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Brian Flora,
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Michael Molloy, Canada's Special Coordinator
for the Middle East Peace Process, believes the U.S. victory
in Iraq will have the biggest impact on the region of any
event since the 1967 War. How the U.S. handles the
post-conflict phase, he told us, will set the tone for the
West's relationship with the Islamic world. Molloy said that
most Palestinians are fed up with the intifadah, and that
Arab states are increasingly willing to compromise on
refugees in exchange for a Palestinian state. Israel sees
the war in Iraq as a reaffirmation of its muscular approach,
Molloy argued, and the U.S. will have to force Israeli
concessions on settlements in order to have a breakthrough in
the MEPP. Molloy encouraged the USG to send observers to a
conference Canada is hosting June 17-20 on Palestinian
refugees (see para 6). END SUMMARY.


2. (C) We met with Molloy and his staff on April 16 to
discuss the impact of the war in Iraq on the Middle East
peace process. Molloy believes we are at a crossroads in the
region, with the potential for catastrophe or exceptional
progress. He feels the parameters of an Israeli-Palestinian
agreement are pretty clear - a return to 1967 borders with
adjustments/offsets, a divided Jerusalem, security provisions
for Israel, and settlement of refugees.


3. (C) Molloy said that more and more Israelis see the West
Bank as a liability. He feels that 13 settlements, with
11-12,000 Israelis, are key. If the U.S. was willing to take
a tough approach with Israel on settlements, Molloy
contended, it would pay huge dividends in the Arab world.


4. (C) Molloy believes the refugee issue can be resolved with
very little return to Israel proper, and that Palestine needs
to be made the destination of choice. Large-scale
international funding will be needed, he continued, but money
alone is not enough. The dignity of the refugees is also
important. Molloy's Senior Advisor Jonathan Laine, who
returned in 2002 from a posting in Ramallah, contended that
the intifada had killed any chance of refugee return to
Israel.


5. (C) Molloy said there were indications that Syria and
other Arab countries would be flexible on refugee
resettlement in exchange for an agreement on a Palestinian
state. He said this subject was no longer taboo, as shown by
the planned participation of Arab scholars at a July 11-13
refugee conference at the Max Planck Institute in Heidelberg.



6. (U) Laine noted that the International Development
Research Centre (IDRC) of Canada will be hosting a conference
on Palestinian refugees June 17-20 in Ottawa. This will be a
stocktaking conference, where international experts will
discuss existing research on the refugee issue and identify
gaps where further study is needed. Confirmed U.S.
participants include Michael Fischbach, Robert Malley, Martin
Indyk, Geoffrey Aronson, and Susan Akram. The Canadian
Government, which chairs the Refugee Working Group, has
invited the USG (and other key countries/organizations) to
send two observers to the conference.


7. (U) Molloy also mentioned that Canada had been asked to
join a task force on Palestinian reform, and that he would
want to discuss with State NEA how Canada could be most
helpful.
CELLUCCI