HUBERT INGRAHAM A YEAR LATER - NO EXCUSES, NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 NASSAU 000722

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR BF SNAR
SUBJECT: HUBERT INGRAHAM A YEAR LATER - NO EXCUSES, NO
APOLOGIES


Classified By: POL/ECON Section Chief Brian Bachman, Reasons 1.5(b) and
(d)

Summary
--------------


1. (C) POL/ECON section chief met with former Prime Minister
Hubert Ingraham on April 8 for a wide-ranging discussion of
his tenure in office and current Bahamian politics. Ingraham
freely gave his opinions about current political developments
such as the upcoming Free National Movement (FNM) convention
(thinks Tommy Turnquest will not be seriously challenged
until next convention),Perry Christie's management style and
character (says he's always been indecisive and lacks vision,
but is a good man),Christie's Cabinet (thinks they are a
collection of ambitious incompetents),the Progressive
Liberal Party (PLP) government's legislative agenda
(non-existent),and bilateral relations (hopes Embassy and
Christie government can improve cooperation). He also
vigorously defended his record during his ten years in
office, claiming to have no regrets. Ingraham said he was
unsurprised that the FNM lost last May, but only reluctantly
agreed that he might share some of the blame for that loss.
He said he was fully confident of his continued popularity
and consistently dodged questions about his own political
future. End Summary.

Out to Pasture?
--------------


2. (C) POL/ECON chief called on Ingraham at his Cable Beach
office, which was relatively small but nicely appointed.
Ingraham works there alone, with just a single employee, a
part-time receptionist who left before the meeting concluded.
He did not seem to be terribly busy, as the phone only rang
twice during an hour and half long conversation, and neither
call seemed work-related. His desk was near empty and his TV
was on and tuned to CNN to watch war news. Ingraham freely
admitted that he was not very active in Parliament and didn't
anticipate that he would become more active any time soon.
He said he still considers himself an FNM, and will vote with
the FNM block, but is taking no role in ongoing party
politics. When asked if he would complete his term or retire
completely from politics, Ingraham said he hadn't given it
much thought.

Perry and Hubert
--------------


3. (C) Ingraham quickly warmed to the political discussion
however, and his love for the game sparkled in his eyes as we
covered a broad range of topics. He told POL/ECON chief that
he and Perry Christie remained good friends and said they
talked by phone a couple of times a week. Ingraham said that
they didn't always talk politics, but didn't avoid the topic
either, and said that he offered advice to Christie
regularly. He said that he believes Christie is a good man,
and well-intentioned, but criticized his leadership style.
Ingraham said "Perry has always been indecisive, and will
always be indecisive. It's just the way he is. He can't
change." He also alleged that Christie had no real vision
other than a general desire to improve social programs, and
nothing he really wanted to accomplish. Ingraham contrasted
Christie with himself, saying he had come in with a definite
agenda and moved decisively to accomplish it, whereas
Christie "enjoys being Prime Minister" but doesn't really
feel any urgency to get things done. Ingraham also said that
Christie is, however, head and shoulders above anyone else in
the PLP, and their only real option as leader. He is the
only one with broad enough appeal to bring in swing voters,
largely because he, unlike many other PLP politicians, is
viewed as "trustworthy" and "solid". Even FNMs Ingraham
said, don't fear for the country with Christie in charge, as
he is unlikely to do anything rash. Combined with the fact
that he loves the job, Ingraham sees Christie as firmly
implanted in the PLP leadership and consequently, the PM's
office. "It would take dynamite to get him out of that
seat", said Ingraham, when asked if he thought Christie would
run for another term.

A Sorry Bunch
--------------


4. (C) Despite his generally complimentary words about
Christie, Ingraham had nothing good to say about the rest of
his government. He gleefully discussed at length PLP
missteps since coming into office, highlighting most of all
the fact that they "have no legislative agenda." Ingraham
pointed out that the PLP Parliament has passed almost no
legislation that hadn't been initially proposed by his
government, and doesn't seem to be working on anything now.
He also comprehensively criticized the PLP Cabinet, saying
"Once you get past Perry, what have you got?" Ingraham said
that the Christie Cabinet was inexperienced, incompetent and
politically unschooled. He also said many of them harbor
further political ambitions and have their own agendas, and
shook his head at Christie's seeming inability to control
them. Ingraham said he "never would have tolerated such
behavior" in his own Cabinet. He sympathized with Christie,
however, noting how, under the Westminster system, it is
difficult to just remove a Cabinet Minister or discipline him
effectively, as all it may do is create a political enemy who
retains his seat in Parliament. Ingraham acknowledged that
this had never stopped him, but claimed, with a mischievous
gleam in his eye, that that was "because I was always
confident -- confident that I had the support of the people.
Perry doesn't have that confidence." In fact, Ingraham said
he believed the PLP had squandered its mandate almost
immediately and no longer enjoyed the support of the people,
because of its inaction and political stumbles. One
political blunder he highlighted was the PLP' apparent
hostility toward the civil service, whom they believe to be
in bed with the FNM after ten years of FNM rule. Ingraham
said "They don't even realize that the public service
overwhelmingly voted for them (the PLP) in the election, and
now they're alienating this key block of swing voters."

FNM Needs Unity
--------------


5. (C) Ingraham acknowledged that just because the PLP was
losing support didn't mean that people were ready to turn
back to the FNM. He said that the FNM had a lot of work to
do before it would be competitive politically again. What
was most needed, he said, was unity. According to Ingraham,
many of the FNM's wounds were self-inflicted, and he had
harsh criticism for former ministers Algernon Allen and
Tennyson Wells, who attacked the leadership process that saw
them unsuccessfully challenge Tommy Turnquest, Ingraham's
hand-picked successor and then complain bitterly in public
about Ingraham's stacking the deck. Ingraham vehemently (but
unconvincingly) denied influencing the leadership process,
and defended Turnquest as "the best man for the job at the
time." He did criticize Turnquest's decision to accept a
celebratory party financed by a contractor doing business
with his Ministry, saying it gave the PLP and Allen and Wells
a convenient target. Ingraham said it was an "unfortunate
decision", because until then no one could say Tommy wasn't
honest." He thought it was very damaging to Tommy's chances
in the election.


6. (C) Nonetheless, Ingraham predicted that Tommy would
survive any leadership challenge in the upcoming May FNM
convention. In fact, he predicted that no serious challenge
would emerge at this convention. According to Ingraham,
those most likely to challenge Tommy Turnquest would lie low
at this convention, since they don't really have any desire
to be the leader of an opposition party for the next four
years, and would bring out their serious challenge at the
next convention, which he predicted would be in another 18
months, by which time the next election would already be in
sight on the horizon. Ingraham quickly and confidently
rattled off who he believed the new FNM leadership team would
be after the election: Turnquest as leader, former Minister
of Industry and Development Zhivargo Laing as deputy leader,
former Attorney General Carl Bethel as party chairman, and
former legislators Johnley Ferguson and Darrin Cash to round
out the leadership slate, a group he characterized as "young,
energetic and talented." With respect to Brent Symonette,
who has publicly ruminated about challenging for the
leadership, Ingraham dismissed his chances, but denied that
Symonette's race (he is white) had anything to do with it.
Rather, Ingraham said it was his personality and lack of
appeal outside the bounds of his wealthy constituency. In
fact, he said the best thing that could happen would be for
Symonette to challenge for the leadership, because he "would
be beaten so soundly that it would shatter all his
illusions." Ingraham confidently predicted that the FNM
would win the next election, saying Christie's PLP "already
had the markings of a one term government."

No Mistakes
--------------


7. (C) When asked if he had any regrets from his ten years
in office, or if he would do anything differently if given
the opportunity, Ingraham quickly responded "Absolutely not!"
He said he was a contented man, and that he had accomplished
virtually everything he set out to do. On further
reflection, he admitted that he wished that the FNM
leadership transition had been handled better, but he
deflected blame for that, saying that it should have been
done earlier and smoother, but he was delayed by FNMs who
kept urging him to put it off and trying to get him to run
again. With regard to the failed constitutional referendum,
which many point to as a key factor in the FNM's electoral
loss, Ingraham denied that it was a factor. In fact, he
said, he had already become convinced by January of 2002 that
the FNM would lose the general election, and scheduled the
referendum because he was confident that it would pass and
would give the FNM momentum going into the election. He
admitted to being shocked when the PLP came out against the
referendum, since they had all voted for the various
amendments in Parliament, but refused to characterize it as a
political miscalculation. Ingraham showed a glint of anger at
the suggestion that some in the FNM blamed him for the
electoral loss, and fired back. He strongly defended his
record and claimed that he was still the FNM's most popular
politician. He pointed out that he had won in 1992 and 1997
by strong margins, and that it was only after he left the
leadership that the FNM lost. According to Ingraham, the FNM
asked him to step away from the campaign not because he was
unpopular, but because his popularity left Turnquest in his
shadow. Finally he did grudgingly admit that he might have
to share some of the blame for the FNM loss. "I guess if I
take credit for the victories I also have to take credit for
the losses," Ingraham said, but added with fire in his voice,
"And no one can deny that I was responsible for the victories
in 1992 and 1997!"

Bilateral Relations
--------------


8. (C) Ingraham also raised his concern with publicly
reported spats between the Embassy and the PLP government.
He offered no criticism of the Embassy, but said "I hope
things are patched up and calm down. We need a strong
bilateral relationship." He offered some mild criticism of
the GOCB's handling of the bilateral relationship. In
particular, he obliquely criticized Christie by saying that
under his government, ministers would not have been given as
much leeway. He also said he believed Foreign Minister
Mitchell could have handled the controversy over the
Ambassador's remarks at the Joint Task Force meeting in
December better, and chalked it up to "inexperience and
pride." Ingraham acknowledged, that with the exception of
what he termed "the Defense Force allegations", none of the
issues raised by the Ambassador were new or should have been
a surprise. In particular, he ruefully admitted that his own
government had failed to fulfill its promise of several years
to create a national drug control strategy, but said that it
was his understanding that it had been "nearly done" when he
left office.

Cagey About the Future
--------------


9. (C) When asked about his own political future, Ingraham,
dodged artfully. He said that he had only run for MP this
last election at the urging of the party, and considers
himself retired. Ingraham claimed that he had no intention
of defending his seat in 2007, and does not intend to take an
active role in the upcoming FNM convention. When asked
directly if he would ever consider reentering politics,
Ingraham dodged the question completely. He did admit that
various people within the FNM continued to push him to retake
the leadership, however, and refused several clear
opportunities to say he was definitely not interested.

Comment
--------------


10. (C) Supremely self-confident, unapologetic and, dare we
say, arrogant as ever, Ingraham still has a forceful and
formidable presence. Currently inactive in Parliament and
largely out of the public view, he obviously is still keeping
a close eye on political events both inside and outside the
party, and we have little doubt that he still has influence
within the FNM if he chooses to use it. Ingraham is still a
relatively young man for a politician, and seems to have
little desire to return to his former trade (the law). If
the Christie government continues to struggle against a weak
economy and the widespread perception that it is inactive,
and Bahamian voters begin to feel a little nostalgia for the
strong hand on the tiller, we wouldn't be surprised if Hubert
Ingraham reemerges as a potential "savior" for his party and
The Bahamas. End Comment.


BLANKENSHIP