NIGERIA: YORUBA CONTROL OF SOUTHWEST POLITICS A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000888

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2008
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: YORUBA CONTROL OF SOUTHWEST POLITICS A
THING OF THE PAST?

Classified By: ACTING CONSUL GENERAL JOSEPH GREGOIRE FOR REASONS 1.5 (B


) AND (D).



1. (U) Summary. Ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
sweeps in recent legislative and gubernatorial elections show
that rule of "old line" leaders of the mainly-Yoruba Alliance
for Democracy Party and the Yoruba socio-cultural
organization, Afenifere, has ended. Five of the six States
in the southwest have gone to PDP and a younger group of
politicians. This may signal a more progressive governance
in the region, at least for the near term. End Summary.


Licking the wounds



2. (C) Leaders of the largely-Yoruba Alliance for Democracy
Party (AD) and the Yoruba socio-cultural organization,
Afenifere, met four days after the April 19 presidential and
gubernatorial elections to try to muddle together a position
in the face of the AD's astonishing defeat in five of the six
southwestern States they had controlled since the elections
of 1999. The group issued a resolution rejecting the
election results but stopped short of threats of court
challenges that other politicians have made. Instead, they
stated that the validity of the elections and the
determination of the rightful winner would be left to the
"tribunal of God and the court of public opinion." The
resolution also rejected reports that AD National Chairman
Ahmed Abdulkadri had officially conceded a presidential
victory to Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate and
current President, Olusegun Obasanjo. Trying to find someone
to blame for the debacle, an AD source told PolOffs that some
in the group accused Abdulkadri of being in cahoots with the
PDP to the detriment and destruction of the AD.



3. (C) AD and Afenifere have given the media a list of
alleged irregularities in the April 12 legislative elections
and the April 19 gubernatorial elections. (AD did not field
a presidential candidate, and thus, has no standing to
challenge that election.) The leaders of the two groups were
to have met again on April 24th to consider what action they
will take with respect to this matter, but sources have told
PolOffs that the decision is unlikely to contradict the
decision already taken, i. e. not to challenge the elections
in court. Ironically, the PDP is apparently going after the
one southwestern State it did not capture, Lagos State. The
losing candidate, Funso Williams (PDP),has submitted a
petition charging gross irregularities in the gubernatorial
election that went to AD Governor Bola Tinubu. Although some
irregularities were reported by all elections observers,
there appears to be little chance that Williams' challenge
will succeed.


What happened and what's next?



4. (C) Consulate sources and most media observers blame the
AD and Afenifere current troubles on complacency. Since the
First Republic, AD (evolving from the Yoruba base in
predecessor organization like the United Party of Nigeria and
the Social Democratic Party) and Afenifere had an easy time
of marshaling support of the Yoruba in the southwest. This
was so much so that many observers still refer to the region
as the "monolithic" southwest. However, beginning with the
elections of 1999, leaders of the group apparently became
over-confident and began to neglect the constant care and
feeding necessary to sustain a loyal constituency. Added to
this, Afenifere began to try to reshape itself as a political
organization, if not superior to AD, then at least AD's equal
in demanding Yoruba loyalty. Obansanjo, a Yoruba and PDP
candidate, won neither the hearts nor the votes of Yorubas in
the southwest and got no support from Afenifere in 1999. As
a consequence, he is reportedly behind the formation of the
Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE) in 2001. The YCE, widely
regarded as the tool of Obasanjo, publicly eschews any
political aspirations and claims its focus is only
"socio-cultural."



5. (C) An aide to Governor Tinubu told PolOff that leaders
of AD would be meeting during the next months to shape a "new
AD" and a "new Deal" for the Yoruba. With five of the
governors in the southwest heavily financed, solidly backed
by the majority party and ready to make names for themselves
and their party, AD will have a difficult road ahead. Media
observers have commented that the new bloc of young Yoruba
governors will no longer be directed by the "politics of
gerontocratics" of the old leaders of any political party and
Afenifere has lost its influence over this generation of
political leaders. Some observers have pointed to the
assassination of Justice Minister Chief Bola Ige, a strong
opponent of Afenifere's mixing in politics, as the point
where Yorubas began to lose faith in both the AD and
Afenifere.


State by State



6. (C) Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu was always expected
to be retained in office. Despite grumbling from some losing
candidates, Tinubu has already begun to consolidate his win
by accepting congratulations from opponents and beginning to
pay off campaign debts. In Ondo State age, in the person of
incumbent Adebayo Adefarati, bowed to the relative youth of
PDP candidate Dr. Oluegun Agagu. Although, Adefarati had
made no statement rejecting or accepting defeat to date,
Agagu has already published a victory message and solicited
"suggestions from the people to improve the State." Chief
Bisi Akande, in Osun State is apparently the only loser to
step aside gracefully. One day after Prince Olagunsoye
Oyinlola (PDP) was declared the winner, Akande set up a
seventeen member transition team to handle the turn-over to
his successor.



7. (C) The biggest surprise upset came in Ogun State where
Governor Olusegun Osoba was unseated by Otunba Gbenga Daniel.
Osoba was expected to win re-election because he had turned
in the best performance of any of the southwest governors
except Tinubu. He was described by observers as a superb
politician campaigning tirelessly across the State and
drawing large enthusiastic crowds. He was also reported to
have the support of the traditional rulers in Ogun. However,
as soon as Daniel was declared the winner and President
Obasanjo sent a congratulatory message, the traditional
rulers hurried to congratulate Daniel, too, and urge the
loser to "accept defeat in good faith and the spirit of
sportsmanship."



8. (C) After the April 12 legislative elections showed PDP
making big inroads into AD's southwest power base, many
projected that of the six vulnerable governors, Lamidi
Adesina of Oyo State would most certainly lose his job.
Adesina had lost support of the Oyo citizens by failure to
deliver government services, alienating local leaders, and
lavishing government money and jobs on his friends and
family. As predicted, Adesina lost to rival Senator Rasheed
Ladoja of the PDP.



9. (C) Following the April 12 legislative loses, Governor
Niyi Adebyo, charged out with renewed vigor to wage a
week-long, door-to-door campaign to save his seat in tiny
Eketi State. Although a close race down to the finish,
Adeboyo lost to PDP's Peter Ayo Fayose. There has been no
word from either camp on whether the election will be
challenged or accepted.



10. (C) Comment. Nigerian voters in this series of
elections appeared to be more enthusiastic about their
ability to affect government by their votes. Political
parties, especially the AD, were taken by surprise that
voters would not only complain about bad government but come
out in significant numbers and stand in the hot sun or
driving rain to vote to make changes in their leadership.
The new governors and legislators now have four years to
prove that the voters were right to trust democracy, and the
voters have four years to see that they can have change if
the new leaders fail to deliver. AD and Afenifere leaders
seem to have rejected, however, any notion that their ousting
from southwest seats of power had any direct link to voter
preference. They claim that fraud alone explains their poor
showing in the elections.
HINSON-JONES