NIGERIA: SOUTH-SOUTH ELECTION LOSERS PLAY WAITING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000886

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR POL -- MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/27/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR KDEM ASEC SOCI NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SOUTH-SOUTH ELECTION LOSERS PLAY WAITING
GAME


Classified By: POL-ECON CHIEF JOSEPH GREGOIRE. REASON: 1.5 (B & D).



1. (C) SUMMARY. In Nigeria's South-south, all six of the
incumbent governors of the ruling People's Democratic Party
(PDP) had their reelection confirmed by the Independent
National Electoral Commission (INEC) after the April 19
election. The degree of election tampering varied starkly
across and within the region's states (details to follow
septel). Similarly, the losing parties are engaging in
divergent tactics in response to the reported outcomes,
ranging from "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" to "let's
bring back military rule and attack the oil companies."
Though cause for monitoring, most of the losers' rhetoric can
be dismissed as bluster. The likelihood of their grievances'
being redressed by legal or extralegal means is slim at best.
Delta, Edo, and Rivers states offer comparative examples of
the major themes reverberating from the losing parties'
drums. Meanwhile, the generality of the population they
profess to represent may disengage from politics at least
until 2007, when they may next have a chance to elect
representative candidates. END SUMMARY.


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THE BAD: DELTA STATE
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2. (C) THE PROCESS: Both the national legislative elections
on April 12th and gubernatorial-presidential elections on the
19th displayed marked variation between the inland areas and
the riverine and coastal areas of Delta State. Within the
capital's local government areas (LGAs),elections were
conducted reasonably well; in the swamps, elections were
essentially a sham (septel to elaborate on Poloff
observations in Delta).



3. (C) CONTESTING THE OUTCOME: Governor James Ibori's
runner-up was Chief Great Ogboru from the Alliance for
Democracy (AD) ticket. In his most significant statement so
far, Ogboru denied having declared victory, but stopped short
of conceding defeat. Ogboru's statement followed the
announcement that police were investigating him for falsely
claiming victory before the INEC results were announced, and
the State Security Service (SSS) reportedly invited him for
an interview as well. Police arrested five suspects,
including the radio station proprietor and his staff, for
allegedly airing news that Ogboru had won in Effurun on the
20th.



4. (C) At least one defeated AD candidate, Sunny Uwode of an
Ethiope constituency, was arrested. Other unsuccessful
candidates have called for cancellation of the National
Assembly election results and the removal of Police
Commissioner John Ahmada. The All Nigeria People's Party
(ANPP),a major competitor though less visible in Delta as an
adversary than in other states, has launched its share of
contests against the polls. ANPP's House of Representatives
candidate for Warri, Bolatsi Omatseye Dudu, petitioned the
state INEC after elections were postponed in his district,
but has yet to receive word that any will be rescheduled.
TheIgbo-based All People's Grand Alliance (APGA),whic had
a measurable showing in the national legisltive and
gubernatorial elections, has been less ocal in Delta about
contesting its losses.


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THE VERY BAD: EDO STATE
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5. (C) THE PROCESS: The PDP construed its overwhelming
victory over th ANPP's competition as evidence that the
party's core support is limited to the North. Observers
noted major irregularities from the capital through the
outlying areas. During the months leading up to the
elections, many of the PDP's rival politicians asserted
having been the subjects of assaults, arrests, and
intimidation.



6. (C) CONTESTING THE OUTCOME: No united front is likely to
challenge the outcome of Edo's gubernatorial election.
Governor Lucky Igbinedion's main challenger was ANPP's
Senator Roland Owie, followed by the AD's Dr. Odion Ojo, the
National Conscience Party's (NCP) Osagie Obayuwana, the
United Nigeria Peoples Party's (UNPP) Dr. Clement Alile, and
the NDP's Harry Igiehon. The ANPP in Edo has been torn for
months by internal wrangling. Nowa Omorogbe, special
assistant to the Governor's wife, told Poloff, "One of Owie's
competitors from the ANPP's gubernatorial primaries, Matthew
Urhoghide, has already publicly accepted the Governor's
reelection. We think Owie will eventually accept it too."
In the meantime, the course Owie's camp appears likely to
take is to publicly denounce the elections as flawed, and see
the reaction they get without hoping for much result. Owie's
party agent Isaiah Osifo, who was "manhandled" and his "life
threatened by PDP loyalists" at the state collation center,
thought the PDP should have left him to "celebrate the
decision of his conscience while they went about celebrating
their victory." (Osifo was himself a PDP member until
defecting to ANPP in March.) Another Osifo, Eddy Ehi Osifo,
gubernatorial candidate of the Movement for Democracy and
Justice (MDJ),publicly rejected the election results on
April 23, but said he would focus on ways to counter fraud in
future elections rather than contest the outcome of the last
elections. In short, the PDP anticipates that some of the
competition "will write to the courts," but "nobody will take
to the streets. If they do, they will be arrested."


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THE VERY, VERY BAD: RIVERS STATE
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7. (C) THE PROCESS: In Rivers, poloffs witnessed outright
rigging and ballot stuffing throughout the state in both the
national legislative and the gubernatorial-presidential
elections. Massive vote rigging took place with the
egregious collaboration of PDP agents and security personnel.
In no LGAs did foreign or domestic observers find the
process remotely approaching free or fair elections.



8. (C) CONTESTING THE OUTCOME: The major challenger to
Rivers Governor Peter Odili was ANPP's Chief Sergeant Chidi
Awuse. He may seek redress via the courts, but does not
share the Rivers State ANPP secretary's radical minority
viewpoint that "the army should take over the country and
people should start blowing up oil pipelines in Rivers
State." Some candidates from the losing parties have already
decamped to the PDP, such as House of Assembly aspirant from
the National Democratic Party (NDP) Benibo Granville. Saying
the elections in Rivers thus far have been "free but not
fair," Granville decided to follow former NDP gubernatorial
candidate Dumo Lulu Briggs, who withdrew from the race. The
"high level of corruption inherent in Nigerian political
elections, which adversely affected all the opposition
parties", provoked Lulu Briggs's decision. Other parties
are weighing the merits of pursuing what appears to be a lost
cause by contesting the election outcomes, against the
potential gains to be had from supporting the party that
cheated them.



9. (C) ANPP's other losing candidates have decided to take
their cues for further action from the party's national
leadership. ANPP collective stance is that no elections have
taken place to date in Rivers. Ben Naanen, ANPP senatorial
candidate for Southeast Rivers, confirmed to Poloff his
belief that no elections took place in his constituency on
April 12 and characterized the election as President
Obasanjo's "civilian coup d'etat." (The only ward where
Naanen carried the vote was in his stronghold of Ogoniland,
where President Ledum Mitee of the Movement for the Survival
of the Ogoni People (MOSOP) resides.) Although Naanen feels
the losing candidates are not obliged to accept the outcome,
he intends to follow whatever course of action is charted
from the ANPP's top leadership and General Buhari. This
would not extend, however, to Buhari's reported calls for
military intervention. "I can't imagine ANPP calling for a
military coup," Naanen said. "We wouldn't support that."


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COMMENT
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10. (C) The South-south holds Nigeria's most critical
resources, the arteries of the Federal Government: oil, gas,
and a few refineries, ports and export-import processing
zones. The PDP-controlled GON is unlikely to tolerate legal
challenges to the PDP's victories in the region. The
question of INEC and the judicial system's impartiality
aside, the losing candidates' potential recourse is limited
(septel to follow on judicial system's preparations for
election challenges in court). South-south public opinion
seems to be leaning toward acknowledging the futility of
challenging the outcomes if not agreeing with the PDP
victory. Without popular backing for a massive challenge to
the outcome of the elections, the losing parties are unlikely
to get far.



11. (C) COMMENT CONT'D. We do not think it unwise for us to
dismiss most of the defeated candidates' rhetoric as bluster.
They know that the likelihood of their grievances' being
redressed by legal or extralegal means is slim at best.
Those who might persist in challenging the election outcomes
outside of the courts would almost surely face arrest on
grounds of sedition or risk violent encounters with armed
personnel, ranging from military forces in Delta's Warri and
Escravos areas to police and state security throughout the
South. Menwhie the PDP will continue to consolidate its
power i the coming weeks. The electorate will react by
hoosing one of three options: mounting organized eforts to
sway the state and local governments toard policies they
favor, looking to 2007 as thei next chance to elect
representative candidates,or disengaging from politics with
apathy. Unfortunately, the last option is apt to be the
choice f the much-abused population. END COMMENT.
GREGIRE