NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH NLC TO DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 000673

SIPDIS


C O R R E C T E D C O P Y -- PARAGRAPH MARKINGS ADDED


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/30/2013
TAGS: ECON ELAB KDEM NI PGOV
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR MEETS WITH NLC TO DISCUSS
UNION PLANS TO STRIKE ON APRIL 1



1. (C) Ambassador Jeter met with the Acting President of the
National Labour Congress (NLC),Joseph Akinlaja, on Thursday,
March 27, 2003, to discuss, inter alia, NLC plans to begin a
nationwide civil service strike on April 1. Akinlaja, who is
also General Secretary of the National Union of Petroleum and
Natural Gas Workers (NUPENG),issued a 14-day ultimatum to
the GON on March 13 to either implement a September 2002
agreement to increase government salaries by 12.5 percent or
face a nationwide indefinite strike by Nigeria's civil
servants. The decision to call the strike was made while NLC
President Adams Oshiomhole was in Geneva attending an
International Labor Organization conference. Oshiomhole
returned to Nigeria on March 30.



2. (C) During the meeting, the Ambassador emphasized the
importance of peaceful, transparent elections as the nation
moves toward its first successful civilian-to-civilian
transition. He expressed concern that a strike could increase
tensions in an already volatile environment, adding that
whatever happens in Nigeria will affect the rest of West
Africa. Akinlaja explained that GON mismanagement created
the dispute; although the NLC tried to remain flexible in the
interest of moving democracy forward, workers were no longer
willing to make unnecessary sacrifices. He dismissed claims
that the GON could not afford the increase and stated that
state governments were consulted when the decision was made
to reduce the salary increase from 25 percent to 12.5 percent
since many states are already behind in paying their civil
servants. Akinlaja assured the Ambassador that despite
growing unhappiness among workers the NLC favors peace. As
many as 4000 NLC members will register to serve as election
monitors; this fact is clear evidence, Akinlaja said, of the
NLC's commitment to lead Nigeria toward free and fair
elections.



3. (C) Laboff spoke to Akinlaja on Monday, March 31, as the NLC
finalized plans for the April 1 strike. Akinlaja said the
NLC would not call off the strike unless the GON reopens
negotiations before midnight on March 31. If the GON does
not respond by midnight, civil servants will begin a
three-day warning strike. NLC leaders are meeting today to
plan their next steps if the issue is not resolved by April

4. Akinlaja said that after the three-day warning strike the
NLC could suspend further action until after the elections.



4. (C) Comment: Although Oshiomhole returned to Nigeria only
three days before the scheduled strike, he should still have
enough time to work with President Obasanjo to defuse this
impending strike action. Oshiomhole has little to gain from
a major labor crisis two weeks before the elections. While a
three-day warning strike or symbolic protest is likely, a
disruptive strike could exacerbate tensions and lead to
accusations that the NLC, which has championed preservation
of democracy, is purposely trying to sabotage the process.



5. (C) Obasanjo may approve the increase only if he thinks the
issue will derail the elections. However, a GON-approved pay
raise that state governments could not fund could be more
destabilizing. We therefore think that Oshiomhole will press
for a solution that does not compromise his credibility
within the NLC. While a symbolic or three-day warning strike
is probable, Oshiomhole will likely play up labor's
commitment to free and fair elections in order to convince
NLC members to postpone further action related to the 12.5
percent increase until after the post-election transition in
May. Oshiomhole may argue that as a quid pro quo for the
NLC's deferring the strike, Obasanjo should agree to pay
salary arrears and incremental salary increases until the
12.5 percent agreement is fully implemented. End Comment.
HINSON-JONES