Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03LAGOS630
2003-03-24 16:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: ETHNIC POLITICS AND NIGER DELTA CRISIS

Tags:  CASC EPET ENRG PINS PGOV PHUM KDEM NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000630 

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR POL -- MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2013
TAGS: CASC EPET ENRG PINS PGOV PHUM KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ETHNIC POLITICS AND NIGER DELTA CRISIS


REF: A. ABUJA 00558

B. ABUJA 00555

C. ABUJA 00554

D. LAGOS 624

E. LAGOS 575

F. LAGOS 568


Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL ROBYN HINSON-JONES. REASON: 1.5 (B & D)


.


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000630

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR POL -- MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2013
TAGS: CASC EPET ENRG PINS PGOV PHUM KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ETHNIC POLITICS AND NIGER DELTA CRISIS


REF: A. ABUJA 00558

B. ABUJA 00555

C. ABUJA 00554

D. LAGOS 624

E. LAGOS 575

F. LAGOS 568


Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL ROBYN HINSON-JONES. REASON: 1.5 (B & D)


.



1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The violent Ijaw confrontations of the
Itsekiri in the oil-rich Escravos area result from their
fierce political competition to control the South-west Warri
Local Government. The chairmanship of this local government
is seen as a lynchpin to the Ijaw's economic survival. If
their demands are not met, the Ijaw intend to keep fighting
to disrupt the April 12 local elections. Although the Ijaw's
stated target is neither the oil companies nor the Federal
Government, ethnic dimensions of outside groups color the
Ijaws' views of Niger Delta politics and the larger polity.
Among the many stakes in the crisis is the legitimacy of the
election outcome. END SUMMARY.


-------------- --------------
IJAW MOTIVATIONS & INTENT TO DISRUPT LOCAL ELECTIONS
-------------- --------------



2. (C) Joshua Fumodoh (strictly protect),former president
of the Ijaw National Congress, confirms that Ijaw youths
intend to "correct the anomaly" of the distribution of wards
in the South-west Warri Local Government of Delta State "by
any means necessary" before local elections take place. Oil
companies are not the target. The target is strictly the
balance of political power between Ijaw and Itsekiri, the two
main riverine groups of the area. The Ijaw regard themselves
as the majority ethnic group in this area and the Itsekiri as
a minority group. Under redistricting enacted after the 1999
elections, 6 of the 10 wards of this local government were
demarcated to the Itsekiri, according to Fumodoh. The Ijaw
view the chairmanship to the local government as paramount to
allocating government revenue, and they see government as the
region's sole means of economic resources outside of the oil
industry. The Ijaw see attaining the local government
chairmanship as a life-or-death issue.


--------------
IJAW AND NIGER DELTA ETHNIC POLITICS
--------------



3. (C) The Ijaw do not think President Obasanjo is a neutral
actor in the crisis, due in part to his Yoruba ethnic
heritage. The Ijaw believe the Itsekiri are actually Yoruba
affiliates, saying the Itsekiri actually "speak Yoruba with
an accent." Fumudoh says, "Despite Obasanjo's style to
appear indifferent and aloof regarding all conflict
situations, we believe he feels strongly about these issues
on the inside. All the Ijaw want is for the president to be
fair. We see him as siding with the Itsekiri, though he
covers up his true feelings through his official language."
This belief was further fueled over the weekend of March
22-23 by reports of press statements given by Afenifere and
the Yoruba Council of Elders (traditional Yoruba political
interest groups) condemning the Ijaw's moves against the
Itsekiri. Fumodoh said the reports indicate that Yoruba
groups would "take up arms against the Ijaw" if the fighting
does not end.



4. (C) As discussed in ref B, the Army Chief of Staff is
regarded by the Ijaw as a member of the Isoko ethnic group, a
subset of the Urhobo group. Fumodoh says the Urhobo, as a
mainland and not riverine ethnic group, are generally seen as
neutral and outside this conflict between Ijaw and Itsekiri
(septel will explain complexities and contradictions of this
issue). Delta State Governor James Ibori is generally
respected by the Ijaw as a peace-maker for his former roles
in the ethnic conflict, although his mother is Itsekiri and
his father Urhobo (septel to follow on Warri-Niger Delta
politics).



5. (C) COMMENT. Although the Ijaw may outnumber the
Itsekiri nation-wide, Fumudoh has previously conceded to
poloffs that the Ijaw constituency's status within a
geopolitical area depends heavily on the boundary
demarcations. Gerrymandering directly impacts Ijaw political
power. The Ijaw believe that oil production has disrupted
their traditional means of economic sustenance (i.e.
fishing),and that government provides their only alternate
means of survival. Until a third option of viable private
sector employment develops in their region, or until the
spoils of power are seen by constituents as being distributed
among minority and majority groups alike, the Ijaw are
unlikely to end their quest for political power by any means
necessary. At risk are lives, long-term stability for oil
production, property, and the legitimacy of local government
elections in the Niger Delta. END COMMENT.
HINSON-JONES