NIGERIA: SOUTH TENSE AS POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000563

SIPDIS


CAIRO FOR POL -- MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/16/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR PHUM KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SOUTH TENSE AS POLITICAL VIOLENCE RISES


REF: A. ABUJA 00448

B. ABUJA 00449

C. LAGOS 504

D. LAGOS 505


Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL ROBYN HINSON-JONES. REASON: 1.5 (B & D)


.



1. (C) SUMMARY. Southern civic and media groups have
diverse views of the coming elections, ranging from
optimistic anticipation of leadership change to fear of
ruthless power tactics. Some analysts predict "bloody"
elections in Kwara and the South-South states, but relative
calm in Lagos and elsewhere. Across the South, the
increasing frequency and prominence of apparent political
assassinations has heightened the public's nervousness. None
of the scenarios for violence include attacks against foreign
nationals. END SUMMARY.


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SOUTHERN TENSIONS RISING; IMPUNITY REIGNS SUPREME
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2. (C) Beyond the on-going societal violence and
extrajudicial killings, which result in corpses on the
streets and in the lagoons or rivers of Lagos State, numerous
prominent Nigerian citizens have been murdered in recent
months. Southern Nigerians express universal horror at the
murders, several of which have taken place in the victims'
homes. While the 2001 case of felled Attorney General Bola
Ige remains under prosecution, to date no suspects have been
convicted for politically motivated murders in the post-1999
administration. Over a dozen such murders and additional
reported attempted murders remain unsolved from the past two
years. Whatever the reasons for the stinted administration
of justice, many Nigerians view the GON as complacent toward
or impotent against political violence in the South.
Southern human rights groups have warned poloffs since
September 2002 that the number of deaths would surely rise as
elections drew nearer. This sad prediction is being
fulfilled, though the reasons behind the violence remain
hazy.



3. (C) Tensions in the South have increased steadily since
last fall. Multiple sources accuse political leaders and
their supporters of plotting various murders that have taken
place under suspicious circumstances. Some candidates appear
to be wearing bullet-proof vests. Sources attribute
assassinations generally to one of two possible motives: a
major "business deal gone bad" or a political vendetta.
Ledum Mitee, president of the Movement for the Survival of
the Ogoni People (MOSOP),says the motive itself is less
important in explaining the phenomenon of these killings than
the atmosphere of impunity they generate. The "real reason
why it happens," he argues, is the "lack of accountability"
combined with an "irrational instinct to dominate that comes
with power." Political killings may occur if someone
obsessed with power, or allies, views a person as an
opponent's supporter. The target may not be the opponent
directly. Some politicians are allegedly detaining opponents
and critics with impunity. For example, Eni Akinsola of CDHR
reports that authorities are repeatedly detaining polytechnic
professor John Okam without charges, allegedly under orders
by a member of the Cross River State House of Assembly.


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FORECAST: MORE VIOLENCE AHEAD
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4. (C) POLITICAL KILLINGS, THUGGERY, AND VIGILANTISM. In
southern Nigeria, persons who initiate violence will usually
appeal more to ethnic than to religious ties, most sources
agree. More dangerous than sporadic societal uprisings, some
sources claim, are threats by hired thugs. Southern human
rights NGOs expect political violence will continue to rise
throughout the election season. Many see it as indisputable
fact that some politicians recruit thugs to influence the
outcome of elections or other political gatherings. Other
politicians, failing to discourage criminal actions by their
supporters who are seeking to maintain or gain power,
passively permit such violence. Members of the Committee for
the Defense of Human Rights (CDHR),including Eni Akinsola,
Shina Loremikan, Belo Aideloje, and Ropo Ewenla, described
first-hand experience they had in university when dominant
military rulers paid friends to disrupt political and social
meetings that could undermine the strongman's agenda. The
same methods are used to affect political agendas in
democracy today, they claim.



5. (C) ARMED STUDENTS TO TAKE TO THE STREETS. Contacts from
CDHR, MOSOP, the Catholic Secretariat, and the Civil
Liberties Organization continue to raise allegations with
poloffs that some candidates actively recruit student
"cultists" to join street armies and intimidate voters at the
polls. Groups such as the Vikings in Rivers and Black Ax in
Enugu are receiving funds in exchange for their "support."
Arms are being stockpiled on university campuses, they claim.
"Students will tell you, 'I'm for so-and-so,'" said CDHR's
Eni Akinsola. "When you ask them, 'Why?' they'll tell you
simply, 'He's my candidate.' You know what they mean. They
have been paid."



6. (C) DEADLY PLACES TO WATCH? Akinsola and Chukwuma
Ezeala, national coordinator of the Justice Development and
Peace Commission (JDPC),predict that roughly half of
Nigeria's states will be violent and half will be peaceful
come elections. Kwara's capital of Illorin will be "one big
pool of blood," they say. "Kwara is anybody's game: Lawal,
Saraki, or Lai Mohammed." Rivers and Delta will also be
"very bloody." Bayelsa and Cross River will have "problems."
In Akwa Ibom, though the urban centers may be peaceful, the
villages may endure the "worst potential violence." They
expect violence in Ondo and Oyo "because the people there do
not support the candidates they are bringing, and the PDP
will win these states at all costs." Potential hotspots in
the North include Kano, Kebbi, and especially Katsina, they
believe. Kaduna and Plateau will be "dicey." Borno will be
interesting because of the balanced strength of competing
parties, they argue. Nassarawa may have skirmishes as well.


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TENTATIVE TRUCES AND "TRANSPARENT RIGGING"
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7. (C) Lagos will be relatively peaceful, think Akinsola and
Ezeala, because "the two factions of the OPC have agreed not
to fight each other here." Representatives of these two
organizations believe that the OPC may be involved in
violence elsewhere, namely Kwara, but the police have "agreed
to allow the OPC to participate in Lagos politics as long as
no violence is involved." In Ogun, where the vote is being
"more transparently rigged--no, 'allocated,'" voting will be
relatively peaceful. Kogi "will be very peaceful, for the
most part." In Niger, "the big-wigs won't allow their
domains to deteriorate into violence." Ekiti "would have
been a bloody tag team, but the four parties are not fighting
each other now." Other states that will not experience
"much" violence include Osun, Sokoto, Abia, Bauchi, Benue,
Zamfara, Adamawa, and Gombe. Anambra will be violent, but to
a lesser degree than the norm.



8. (C) RIGGING LEGITIMATELY: WHEN THEY'LL THROW IN THE
TOWEL. "You need to have genuine support in order to rig an
election," asserted Akinsola. "If you cross the 30 percent
threshold of support, then you can rig it to get the
mandate." Most rigging, according to Ledum Mitee of the
Movement for the Survival of the Ogoni People (MOSOP),does
not involve the literal "stuffing of the ballot box." The
process is less definable than the outcome in some cases. How
electoral officers are chosen and what they do with the
resources they are given are important. Do they make voting
materials available? Do they distribute fraudulent ballots?
To combat rigging and increase the perceived legitimacy of
election outcomes, several NGOs say, results should be
announced on site by the local government offices, rather
than passing the results all the way to Abuja for final
announcement.



9. (C) COMMENT. Political fears in the South are largely
by-products of societal clashes between indigenous groups
(e.g. Warri, Delta State),alleged assassinations, and
political legitimacy questions (as some candidates across the
South are reportedly "imposed" on voters without popular
consent). Despite Obasanjo's popularity with many
Southerners, his recent efforts to shore up political support
have failed to convince people who feel that the GON has done
little to engender economic development and social welfare,
issues repeatedly highlighted as paramount to Southern
constituents. The climate remains volatile in pockets across
the South; moreover, tensions continue to riddle
relationships between the international oil companies
operating in the region and the local residents. The
coincidence of tensions in the Middle East and domestic
violence in Nigeria is thus making many an expat
uncomfortable. Whatever election violence there may be in
the South is not expected to involve foreign nationals,
however. Prudence and common sense should help keep foreign
nationals away from the election fray. END COMMENT.
HINSON-JONES