VISIT OF AF A/S WALTER KANSTEINER: US/UK DISCUSSION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 002465

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2010
TAGS: PGOV PINS PREL
SUBJECT: VISIT OF AF A/S WALTER KANSTEINER: US/UK DISCUSSION



1. Classified confidential by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter;
Reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).



2. Summary: Visiting AF Assistant Secretary Walter
Kansteiner and Ambassador
Jeter met July 25 with British High Commissioner Phillip
Thomas to discuss Nigeria's
pre-election political climate and tensions between Nigeria
and Cameroon over
the Bakassi Peninsula. There was agreement that steps can be
taken by the
U.S., U.K. and France before a World Court decision is
announced to encourage
both countries to peacefully abide by the Court's ruling.
End Summary



3. During a July 25 visit to Abuja, AF Assistant Secretary
Walter Kansteiner
and Ambassador Jeter told British High Commissioner Philip
Thomas that
President Obasanjo had been very agitated over the issue of
the Bakassi
Peninsula in a meeting earlier in that day (septel). The
Ambassador noted that
Nigeria might be willing to fight over Bakassi if the
International Court of Justice(ICJ) judgement goes against
Nigeria's interests. President Obasanjo may need outside
mediation to avoid being pushed towards military
intervention, and to foster dialog with
Cameroon, preferably before the ICJ ruling is announced. A/S
Kansteiner
observed that the new French Foreign Minister is very
interested in Africa and
could be an asset in joining the US and UK in sending a
strong and unified
message to Nigeria and Cameroon. Specifically, the message
would be that a
military response by either side to the Court's decision
would be
internationally unacceptable and would be catastrophic for
Nigeria's image, reputation and leadership in Africa.





2. The High Commissioner remarked that in his previous
conversations with the
Nigerian President, Obasanjo had indicated a willingness to
abide by the ICJ's decision, although he appears to have told
French President Chirac that the Army might not swallow a
verdict against Nigeria. The High Commissioner pointed out
that Cameroon's military capability does not match
Nigeria's which could cause Nigeria to do something
stupid. The Ambassador replied that while Nigeria's
military would take casualties in an encounter, they would
eventually overwhelm the Cameroonian military. He noted that
national pride and Presidential egos were factors in the
building tensions. Nigeria is already publicly accusing
Cameroon of mistreating Nigerian citizens who constitute 90
percent of the population in the Peninsula and, the
Ambassador observed, there are already unconfirmed reports
that Nigeria might do something pre-emptive.



3. Thomas turned to the broader problem of Nigeria's
difficult economic
situation and lack of institutional political strength that
could lead to a
power grab before the 2003 elections. He said that former
President Babangida
is a wild card in the political game. Furthermore, it is
still unclear if
the Obasanjo-Abubakar ticket will survive and, if it does
not, who else might emerge as alternatives. The High
Commisioner agreed that there are no quick fixes to ensure
Nigeria's democracy and the country is too important to walk
away from.



4. Thomas fully endorsed the idea of holding a bilateral
meeting on Nigeria in London during October and suggested
that the World Bank and perhaps the EU be included along with
representatives from the Department of State, the FCO and
Number 10. Ambassador Jeter recommended including
representation by Canada. The Ambassador proposed that DFID
and USAID meet on one day while political meetings take place
simultaneously; a second day could be devoted to a joint
political/economic/assistance session on Nigeria.



5. The High Commissioner strongly agreed with the Assistant
Secretary's views that the shared goal of both the US and the

SIPDIS
U.K. is the preservation of civilian rule in Nigeria and a
peaceful election in 2003. The alternative -- implosion in
Nigeria -- would be an enormous humanitarian tragedy.



6. Comment: The concerns expressed in the meeting over
saber-rattling between Nigeria and Cameroon were underlined
in the July 28 issue of the widely read Sunday Vanguard
newspaper. An article expressed fear that Cameroonian
authorities have something up their sleeves and are deploying
their troops close to the border with Nigeria. The article
goes on to assure the reader that Nigeria has taken steps to
"have as many men on the ground in case of any surprise act
of aggression by Cameroon." End Comment.



7. Assistant Secretary Kansteiner did not clear this cable
before his
departure.


HINSON-JONES