NIGERIA: WARRI: A PAUSE IN THE VIOLENCE?

C O N F I D E N T I A L LAGOS 001866

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/05/2004
TAGS: PINS EPET PGOV ASEC PHUM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: WARRI: A PAUSE IN THE VIOLENCE?


REF: ABUJA 1441


Classified By: RHINSON-JONES for reasons 1.5 (b) and (d).



1. (SBU) There has been no serious violence reported in Warri
for almost two weeks, other than what has been described as
an inter-factional "skirmish" over the weekend of August 30
in the settlement of Ugbomro lying between Warri and Effurun.
Military patrols sent to restore peace found the body of a
Police Inspector said to have been ambushed. On Thursday,
September 4, Halliburton's security director described the
situation in Warri as an "uneasy quiet."



2. (C) He also told Econoff that the Itshekiri are on the
verge of an attack against the Ijaw in retaliation for an
earlier Ijaw attack. He said he informed the local military
and police commanders of what he knows. He thinks it could
happen this weekend. Others in the Warri business community
are also discussing this report and are making arrangements
for the safety and security of their employees.



3. (C) At least one newspaper has reported that a serious
clash is expected this weekend in Warri. There are also
reports that the Nigerian military has moved helicopters in
the area, and has been flying low altitude runs over the city
and environs. A Lagos businessman with close ties to Warri
told Econoff that the presence of military helicopters has
fueled rumors that the military expects a large scale clash
and is trying to deter against it. However, he also suggests
that the entire situation is rumor only: in his opinion, no
faction ever announces its attacks in advance, and no one can
ever predict what will happen between the feuding ethnic
groups in Warri.


4.(C) Meanwhile, the boat loaded with Halliburton equipment
hijacked on August 18 by Ijaw "pirates" (reftel) was released
this week through peaceful mediation by the Delta state
government. The expected military action never occurred.
The captain and crew held hostage went unharmed and returned
to Forcados. Halliburton has not yet recovered its equipment.
HINSON-JONES