NIGERIA: YORUBA LEADER PA ADESANYA'S VIEWS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 001211

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY
CAIRO FOR MAXSTADT


E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/27/2008
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: YORUBA LEADER PA ADESANYA'S VIEWS ON
STATUS OF AD, AFENIFERE, YCE, AND US-NIGERIAN RELATIONS

Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL ROBYN HINSON-JONES FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AN


D (D).



1. (U) Summary. Leader of Afenifere and member of the
Patriot's group, Pa Abraham Adesanya, says that the April
elections must be canceled and an interim government
installed until "free and fair" elections can be held. He
claims Afenifere is not seriously weakened after the defeat
of many Alliance for Democracy (AD) candidates in the
elections, and that the organization will continue to promote
the political issues that concern Yorubas. Adesanya defends
Afenifere as the true mouthpiece of Yoruba political
aspirations and stoutly denies that any other group,
including the rival Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE),can
adequately represent pan-Yoruba interests. Adesanya's
claims notwithstanding, the elections gave both Afenifere and
the AD a jarring blow. With the Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) having swept the Southwest, President Obasanjo has
emerged as the preeminent Yoruba politician, casting a large
shadow over territory that, until April, seemed like the
exclusive domain of Afenifere and the AD. End summary.


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The Patriots propose five-year term limits...again
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2. (U) On May 23, a group of prominent, mostly Southern,
Nigerians, the "Patriots", issued a press statement calling
for Nigerians to reject the results of the April 19
Presidential and National Assembly elections. The statement
contended that the elections were so riddled with
irregularities that a government based on such fraud would be
"a disservice to democracy." The group called for a one-year
interim government comprised of political party
representatives and "other interested groups" that would rule
Nigeria until "free and fair" elections would be held.


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Afenifere is not dead, not even wounded
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3. (U) PolOff met with Chief Pa Abraham Adesanya, head of
Afenifere (pan-Yoruba social and cultural organization),
member of the Patriots, former Senator from Ogun State, and
among the leaders who formed the AD party. The octogenerian
Adesanya asked for a meeting at his home, as he was
recovering from an illness and under doctor's orders to "get
some rest."



4. (C) Adesanya adamantly rejected the prevailing verdict
that Afenifere had lost its clout in the southwest after the
defeat in the April/May elections of almost all AD
candidates. According to Adesanya, Afenifere, is and will be
the only organization to pursue issues of concern to Yorubas
worldwide. He also rejected the notion that AD is a party
for Yorubas and the southwest States only and pointed out
that the party has other objectives in different parts of the
country and for different constituencies. He noted the facts
that AD had fielded opposition candidates in the Hausa north
as well as the Igbo southeast, and that the Igbo candidate,
Chief Nnanna Uzor Kalu, was one of the few AD winners. As
for the notion that the elections revealed Afenifere as a
moribund organization for old Yoruba men, Adesanya declared
that any Yoruba, male or female, young or old, could join
Afenifere. (Comment. Adesanya's statements that Afenifere
has an open membership and a pan-Yoruba scope may be true.
However, a harder truth was that Afenifere and the AD were
routed by the PDP in this last election. Additionally, the
criticism from the Southwest about electoral irregularities
has, so far, been mild relative to the decibels heard from
the Northwest and Southeast. Afenifere and the AD have not
even been able to marshall enough strength to complain
vigorously. This is not only a sign of weakness of both
groups, but also an acceptance of the election results in the
Southwest. End comment.)


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Liars, traitors and the Yoruba Council of Elders (YCE)
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5. (C) Adesanya became even more acerbic when asked about
the relationship among the AD, Afenifere and the YCE. He
said that the YCE is comprised of disgruntled Afenifere
members who "crawled away" in opposition to his being named
leader. He continued, saying that the YCE is not really made
up of Yoruba "elders", and has an age threshold of sixty for
membership that it does not strictly impose. "Some of their
members are in their fifties and even their forties," he
complained. According to Adesanya, he was lied to by a
founding member of the YCE, Judge Adewale Thompson. Adesanya
says he met with Thompson when the first rumors were
circulating that a break-away group was forming. He says
that Thompson assured him that no such group would be formed.
He asserted that elderly founding members of Afenifere
(notably ninety-year old Anglican Archdeacon Pa Emmanuel
Alayande) were "tricked" into supporting the YCE. Adesanya
is totally opposed to a multiplicity of groups representing
the Yoruba, saying the "selfish traitors" of the YCE will
only bring "trouble into the fold of the Yoruba."



6. (C) (Comment. The YCE was among the first to criticize the
Patriots' interim government proposal. In a statement to the
Guardian newspaper, a YCE spokesman called the Patriots plan
"an invitation to anarchy." The spokesman also said that the
YCE considered the April/May elections "the freest and
fairest in the history of Nigeria." The YCE position is not
surprising. The organization is the brainchild of late
Attorney General Bola Ige. Since Ige's demise, President
Obasanjo and his allies have progressively taken control of
the YCE. Now the YCE, backed by the weight of the President
and by PDP electoral gains in the Southwest, is ready to
challenge Afenifere for the mantle of the preeminent Yoruba
organization. End comment.)


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The "so-called" elections and US-Nigerian relations
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7. (C) Seeming to gain more energy with each new topic,
Adesanya asked PolOff how the US could congratulate the GON
on an obviously rigged election and continue relations with
any government formed by fraud. PolOff informed him that US
Mission goals in Nigeria included supporting stable political
and economic growth for Nigeria, and that the USG had
congratulated only the Nigerian people on conducting the
elections and on the transition from one civilian government
to a successor without the military interventions and
violence of the past. Adesanya retorted that his complaint
against the US was that "your economy and trade are placed
above anything else." He continued, saying "I take all your
promises and pronouncements with a grain of salt, because I
know you are prepared to sacrifice us before your trade."



8. (C) Adesanya said he met with President Olusegun Obasanjo
before the elections in April and had promised that the
Southwest would be peaceful. He also promised Afenifere and
AD support for Obasanjo, a Yoruba. Adesanya said that,
because of his pact with Obasanjo, Yorubas did not protest
election irregularities, implying that it was he, not
Obasanjo's power and influence, that staved off unrest in
the Southwest. He added that AD National Chairman Alhaji
Ahmed Adamu Abdulkadir, who had at first endorsed the results
of the elections then recanted, was unable to speak for the
Yorubas. He said Afenifere had opposed Abdulkadir's
appointment from the very beginning because Abdulkadir was
not a member of any of the founding organizations of the
party. Abdulkadir was "surreptitiously" brought in by a
group of "traitors" and Adesanya refuses to accept him as
Chairman of AD. He added that Afenifere will not support any
"new" AD party led by Abdulkadir.



9. (C) Comment. Adesanya has been a prominent politician for
decades. He is respected as an elder statesman by Yorubas
and non-Yorubas. His views have in the past and will
continue to have influence in the Southwest. However, that
influence may be on the wane thanks to the elections that put
Obasanjo, the PDP and the YCE in a more advantageous position
in the Southwest. For many observers, Pa Adesanya
personifies what may be a problem with Afenifere and what led
to the AD's electoral meltdown--that it is controlled by
octogenarians, out of touch with the younger generation of
Yorubas who would rather support a Yoruba already in power
than someone who is more ethno-centric but has no chance at
national power. Despite Pa's protestations that Afenifere
and the AD are not ailing, President Obasanjo now casts a
formidable shadow over the Southwestern real estate the two
groups once controlled. End comment.
HINSON-JONES