NIGERIA; A VISIT TO THE SOUTHEAST - PART 1: ABIA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000102

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2008
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA; A VISIT TO THE SOUTHEAST - PART 1: ABIA

Classified By: CONSUL GENERAL ROBYN HINSON-JONES FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AN


D D.



1. (C) Summary. Orji Kalu, dubbed the "Action Governor"
by President Obasanjo for his aggressive style and ability to
get programs and projects going in Abia state, recently won a
year-long administrative and political tussle with his
disgruntled Deputy Governor and half the State legislators.
Kalu, a young, rising star of the Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) was recently tapped to be the party's gubernatorial
candidate again, and with a pledge of support from the
President, he seems set to win another four-year term. End
Summary.


Background: Political Family Feud



2. (C) The political wrangling in Abia State that started in
2001 arose from an attempt by two rival groups within the
Abia Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to hijack the party
machinery. One of the two groups is led by the
current Governor, Orji Kalu. The other group, sometimes
referred to as the "Abuja Group," consists of Abia State
politicians who also hold important federal appointments,
such as Transport Minister Ojo Madueke, PDP National
Secretary, Vincent Ogbulafor, and Niger Delta Development

SIPDIS
Commission (NDDC) Chairman, Onyema Ugochukwu. This group
made moves to try to weaken the popularity and influence of
Governor Kalu, an Igbo of the Bende clan. Deputy Governor

H. Enyi Abaribe, an Igbo of the Ukwa Ngwa clan, deserted the
Kalu camp and teamed up with the Abuja Group, apparently
hoping for support from them should he challenge his old boss
for the governorship.



3. (C) Using Port Harcourt in Rivers State as the hub for
the visit to Abia State, ConOffs traveled by car to Umuahia,
Abia's capital, for a courtesy and orientation visit with
officials there. T. A. Orji, the Chief of Staff of the
Governor, met with us because the Governor and various senior
State and PDP officials had been called to Abuja by the
party's National Executive Committee for a "reconciliation"
meeting. Orji spent the first half hour of the meeting being
the archetypal "spin doctor" and public relations frontman
for Kalu. He proudly enumerated the Governor's achievements
during the past three and a half years and said that his
(Orji's) book on the achievements, "Unbroken Covenants," was
due in bookstores by Christmas.


Birth of the Dream



4. (C) Orji said that as a young and very successful
businessman in 1994, Kalu had had "a dream" about the future
of Abia State while sitting in a "go slow" (traffic gridlock)
one day. Since his election, according to Orji, Kalu had
focused on his dream of eradicating poverty in Abia State by
promoting the re-development of agriculture with a "back to
the soil" program featuring cultivation of rubber plants,
education and modern skills training through a "work to
learn" program for high school drop-outs, and small business
programs for women. "This administration is insuring that
our people get at least three meals per day," he boasted. He
quickly added that the Kalu administration is very "gender
sensitive": there are three senior, female appointees in the
State government--the Minister for Rural Development, the
Minister for Women and Youth Affairs, and the State Solicitor
General. The State government has also initiated and funded
special loan programs for women, as well as increased funding
for girls' education. Orji said Kalu has definitely lived up
to the title, "the Action Governor," bestowed on him early in
his tenure by President Olusegun Obasanjo owing to his
youthful, energetic, and aggressive pursuit of programs for
Abia State.


Friends No More



5. (C) Orji's face set in grim lines when the talk turned to
the rift between Governor Kalu and his Deputy, H. Enyi
Abaribe. Orji related a rambling story about how Kalu and
Abaribe had met by accident at a business meeting. Kalu was
so impressed by Abaribe that he immediately asked the
politically uninitiated Abaribe to join his administration
and subsequently appointed him Deputy Governor. Orji
dismissed with an impatient wave of his hand any possibility
that Abaribe would challenge Kalu for the top spot in Abia,
and declared that Kalu will run "unopposed." He continued
saying that Abaribe is just a "sweet talker" whose record was
sullied by allegations of graft, loan fraud and theft of
government funds. He dubbed Abaribe and his supporters "the
Taliban" and predicted they would be as soundly defeated as
were the Taliban in Afghanistan.



6. (C) In a separate conversation, Sir I. K. Daniel, Special
Assistant (Political) to Governor Kalu, told us on our visit
to Abia in November that a party primary held the previous
week had failed to unseat the Deputy Governor and had further
aggravated the crisis. The split within the PDP in Abia
extended to the State House of Assembly as well as the PDP
Executive Committee. "The people feel cheated after this
primary," he said, "and we are expecting protest petitions to
be filed after primary results are announced from Abuja. A
reconciliatory attempt by the National Assembly on the day of
ConOff's visit, and a previous move by the PDP National
Executive, only temporarily succeeded in reconciling the
warring factions.


The "Taliban"

7. (C) Abaribe and his supporters, all unpaid for the
preceding eighteen months, were hunkered down holding siege
at the State Assembly building at the time of ConOff's
visit. (Kalu's supporters have moved into offices across
from the Governor's office at Government House.) ConOffs
waited at the gate to the Assembly grounds while armed guards
and State Security Service men conferred with the Deputy
Governor; and finally, with the additional efforts of ConGen
Political Specialist, persuaded him to tell us his side of
the story. ConOffs
managed to meet with the Deputy Governor just minutes before
he left for Abuja for the "reconciliation" meeting. Abaribe
was even more grim-faced and squint-eyed than Orji when
discussing his rival, Governor Kalu.



8. (C) Abaribe even had a list of complaints about the
administration including mismanagement of funds and failure
to provide basic services. He said it was the "Action
Governor's" fault that State finances were in such a
disastrous condition. The Governor had been overly ambitious
and had started too many projects never to finish any of
them. He criticized Kalu's plans to increase tax revenues,
saying "We must enhance other sources of revenue and
distribute the fruits of our democracy before we can increase
the tax burden." The Governor has not done anything positive
on this issue, according to Abaribe. The State suffers from
an unemployment rate of 60 percent. "These people can't pay
taxes if they don't have income," he pointed out. "Even the
20 percent in this State who do pay are underpaying." He
went on to add that Abians are "disgusted with bad leaders
and government corruption" and will not pay taxes to a
government that is accountable to no one.



9. (C) On his decision whether or not to oppose Kalu for the
2003 governorship, Orji told us during our visit that a 1991
document signed by the founding fathers of Abia State
declared that there would be a "sharing of State government
and political offices among the factions" of Abia State to
ensure that "everybody is carried
along and everybody feels that they are part of the
government." Abaribe, himself from the Ukwa-Ngwa ethnic
group that has long complained about its marginalization in
contravention of the 1991 agreement, recently left the PDP to
join the All Nigerian Peoples' Party (ANPP). At the recent
ANPP convention in the capital city of Abuja, Abaribe was
tapped to be the party's candidate for Governor of Abia.



10. (C) Comment. In late November, 47 Igbo traditional
rulers met to try to dispel tension and conflict in Abia and
other areas of the Southeast. They urged citizens of Abia to
back Governor Kalu for the good of the Igbo people. Abaribe,
however, being of another clan, felt no special
responsibility to Kalu and decided to change parties and
challenge his boss and former friend. High-level backers he
may have cultivated in the PDP are gone, first because
Abaribe changed parties and, second, because these backers
must support whomever the President and leader of their party
supports. That would be incumbent Governor Kalu. ConGen
FSNs from Abia, say that while many in the State admire
Abaribe as an honorable and principled young man, almost no
one gives him any chance at beating Kalu. As Obasanjo
indicated support for any incumbent governor who wants to try
for a second term, and Kalu still apparently enjoys
significant voter support in the region, it is likely that he
will be re-elected. Although none of the officials we spoke
to specifically mentioned the possibility that the lingering
ill-will among Kalu, Abaribe and some State legislators would
engender election-related violence, Abaribe still travels
with an armed escort, and he and Kalu are still not at all
"reconciled."
HINSON-JONES