Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03KUWAIT4613
2003-10-08 05:54:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kuwait
Cable title:  

(C) SPEAKER KHORAFI PREDICTS INCREMENTAL PROGRESS

Tags:  PGOV PHUM KWMN KISL ETRD PINR KU 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 004613 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/RA, DRL, G/IWI, INR/NESA, INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KWMN KISL ETRD PINR KU
SUBJECT: (C) SPEAKER KHORAFI PREDICTS INCREMENTAL PROGRESS
ON WOMEN'S RIGHTS, IS RECEPTIVE TO MEPI COOPERATION

Classified By: AMB. RICHARD H. JONES; REASON 1.5 (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUWAIT 004613

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP, NEA/RA, DRL, G/IWI, INR/NESA, INR/B

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KWMN KISL ETRD PINR KU
SUBJECT: (C) SPEAKER KHORAFI PREDICTS INCREMENTAL PROGRESS
ON WOMEN'S RIGHTS, IS RECEPTIVE TO MEPI COOPERATION

Classified By: AMB. RICHARD H. JONES; REASON 1.5 (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: National Assembly Speaker Jassem al-Khorafi
told the Ambassador October 6 the Government should be able
to muster a majority in the Assembly, but it will only become
clear after parliament reconvenes later this month whether
the Assembly (elected in July) will be more or less
cooperative than the previous one. Khorafi expected the
Government to push women's rights incrementally, by seeking
to start with voting/election rights at municipal level. He
was open to the Ambassador's suggestions about MEPI
cooperation, specifically regarding economic reforms and
possible establishment of a parliamentary research service.
He suggested that the US also consider working with
parliaments on a GCC-wide basis. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) COUNTING HEADS: The Ambassador, accompanied by Pol
Chief (Notetaker),met with National Assembly Speaker Jassem
al-Khorafi October 6 to preview the first session of the new
Assembly (elected July 5),which will begin later this month.
Khorafi thought the Government could find the new Assembly
"tough," though this would only become clear once the
parliament was in session. The aggressive talk by some MPs
during the summer recess was mainly posturing for media
attention. The first message to be drawn from the election
results, Khorafi said, was that the people want results, "not
loud voices." He noted that 18 of the 50 elected members are
new, and 6 were not in the last Assembly, though they have
served prior terms. Khorafi reckoned there are now five main
groups in parliament: Popular Action Bloc - 6; Islamists
10-11; Liberals - 5-6; Independents - "about 10";
pro-Government "service deputies" - "about 8." (NOTE:
Political parties are forbidden, so all candidates are
officially self-selected, though many enjoy overt or discreet
support from de-facto parties. There are several other valid
ways of categorizing MPs, and Khorafi's breakdown only totals

about 40. One of the 50 elected members, Ahmed Baqer, is
Minister of Justice. He and the other 15 members of the
Cabinet are considered ex-officio members of parliament. In
order to pass legislation, the Government needs a total of 33
votes, i.e. it needs the support of 17 of the 49 elected
members besides the Minister of Justice. It can generally
count on the service deputies, especially if it makes clear
that it really cares about a particular bill. Thus, it only
needs about 10 additional votes; for bills advancing a
progressive agenda, the likeliest supporters are liberals and
some independents, and the most likely opponents are the
Islamists and the Popular Action Bloc. END NOTE.)


3. (C) ONUS ON GOVT.: Khorafi (generally seen as a
Pro-Government Independent) put the onus on the Government to
show the capability and seriousness of purpose to coordinate
effectively with parliament. One way to show seriousness, in
his view, was for the Government to refer issues to the
constitutional court when the Assembly challenged its
prerogatives (i.e. rather than just shelving the issues).
Khorafi predicted that if, after one or two years, Prime
Minister Shaykh Sabah were to conclude the National Assembly
was unmanageable, it would likely be dissolved (by the Amir,
Shaykh Sabah's brother) and new elections held.


4. (C) WOMEN'S RIGHTS: The Speaker did not think women's
rights would be a big political problem for the Government:
if it fails to obtain passage of legislation granting women
political rights, "it can say it tried its best." (COMMENT:
This remark implies that Khorafi does not think the
Government has much at stake in succeeding on this issue.
END COMMENT.) The first test for the Government, he said,
would come when the Assembly considered the Amiri decree
dissolving the Municipal Council and holding up elections
pending a new law currently being drafted. If parliament
rejected the decree outright, that would be "an embarrassment
for the Government." If it accepted the decree but inserted
amendments (in the new law) not to the Government's liking,
there would be no embarrassment. Khorafi said he had not
seen the draft law, but understood it would change the
structure of the Council, differentiate between the executive
and legislative functions, and give women the same right to
vote and be elected as men. He thought the Government was
being "wise" to try to make incremental progress on women's
rights, instead of making a frontal assault on the Islamists'
strongly held view that their religion forbids giving
"wilaya" (governing power, as that of a ruler or judge) to
women. He explained that whereas the National Assembly is a
form of wilaya, the municipality is not, therefore the
Islamists' main objection to women's rights does not apply to
municipal-affairs legislation. Khorafi stressed that he
always counsels against attacking traditions directly,
because that only increases resistance -- it is far more
effective to work around the edges quietly, gradually
building up faits-accomplis that undermine resistance. He
cited the example of satellite dishes, which were initially
condemned as agents of moral corruption but have now become
so ubiquitous that they are no longer an issue. If the
Government tried to ram through full political rights for
women all at once, even most of the service deputies would
balk, because it would hurt them with their constituents.
Starting with municipal elections was a good way to prepare
the way for the future.


5. (C) OTHER CONTROVERSIAL ISSUES: Other controversial
issues the Speaker cited:

-- An initiative by some MPs to increase the maximum amount
of GOK-subsidized housing loans, which he predicted the
Government would oppose;
-- Kuwaitization of the work-force, including stiff fines for
employers who do not meet the mandatory quota of Kuwaiti
employees (two percent). He explained: if a company had
3,000 employees, 60 of them should be Kuwaitis; if only 20
are Kuwaitis, the company should pay a fine of 500 Kuwaiti
Dinars (about $1,650) multiplied by the shortfall, in this
case 40. The Government is now saying a reduced fine of KD
100 should apply to all the non-Kuwaiti employees, in this
case 2,980. "We say the Government is doing this on purpose,
to have the private sector complain and therefore kill the
law."


6. (C) U.S. INTERESTS: In addition to women's rights, the
Ambassador raised other US interests:

-- Allowing foreign investment in the northern oil fields.
Khorafi said the only issue is whether each agreement of this
type with a foreign company needs to be a separate law, as
the oil companies want, or whether all those agreements can
be covered under one law, which would be much less of a
burden and would enable faster progress.

-- Economic reforms, including strengthening the copyright
law. The Speaker said new copyright legislation should
present no problem.


7. (C) MEPI: The Ambassador raised MEPI, stressing the
Secretary's commitment and the new philosophy of building

SIPDIS
partnerships rather than doling out aid. He proposed to work
with the National Assembly on such activities as exploring
Kuwaiti interest in establishing a body similar to the
Congressional Research Service, explaining the intricacies of
TIFA and reforms needed for the Free Trade Area to become a
reality. The Speaker said "we will look at this with
interest." He added that the GCC parliaments coordinate
together at staff level, and encouraged the US to see how it
could help. To this end, he invited the Embassy to contact
the National Assembly Director General. The Ambassador
accepted this suggestion, noting that MEPI has funds
available for regional projects.


8. (C) FOREIGN POLICY: Khorafi raised Guantanamo (septel),
the Prime Minister's visit to Washington, Iraq, the Kuwaiti
missing persons from the Iraqi occupation, and Israel-Syria.

-- Prime Minister's visit: he understood it had been very
successful. The Ambassador agreed, noting that he had been
there. He mentioned the decision to give Kuwait Major
Non-NATO Ally status, and the willingness of both sides to
enter talks for a Trade and Investment Framework Agreement
(TIFA) as a first step on the road to a Free Trade Area.

-- On Iraq, he urged the fastest possible transfer of
authority to Iraqis. The Ambassador assured him we are
hoping to reach agreement on a new UNSCR before the Madrid
conference, and explained that the Kay Report has been
misportrayed in the media: in fact, it documents that
Saddam's regime was continuing to engage in prohibited
activities.

-- Kuwaiti Missing: Khorafi remarked sadly that hopes of
recovering the Kuwaiti missing alive have given way to the
discovery of mass graves in Iraq. The Ambassador briefed on
progress in recovering remains through the Tripartite
Commission (TPC) process (at least 36 positively identified
to date),and noted that the next meeting of the TPC's
Technical Sub-Committee (TSC) was scheduled for October 12 in
Kuwait. The Speaker pointed out that so far, none of the
positively-identified remains are those of the 15-20
"heavyweight" prisoners such as Assistant Undersecretary of
the Interior Yusuf Meshari. He wondered whether these
high-value captives might have been kept alive as bargaining
chips. The Ambassador replied that he had held the same
hope, but Saddam never tried to use them. Khorafi rejoined
that the same was true of Iranian prisoners who were
unacknowledged for years, then suddenly released. The
Ambassador took the point, and said the question could be put
to the Iraqi side at the TSC.

-- On Israel-Syria, Khorafi urged the US not to veto a UNSC
Resolution condemning Israel for its attack inside Syria, as
that would "make it more difficult for your friends." He
asserted that Syria was "working hard on a good resolution;
don't veto it." The Ambassador reminded Khorafi of the state
of US-Syrian relations and pointed out that Syria has a
record of refusing to work for a reasonable text, preferring
to make us use our veto so as to embarrass us.


9. (C) COMMENT AND BIO NOTE: Khorafi was unopposed for
re-election as Speaker after the July elections. His bottom
line on the upcoming parliamentary session seems to be that
if the Government tries hard enough, it can make headway, but
it will have to work hard at it. He conducted the meeting
entirely in English, which he speaks quite serviceably, if
not always grammatically -- he seemed to understand virtually
everything, and only occasionally had to fish for words.
JONES