Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03KINSHASA477
2003-02-27 14:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kinshasa
Cable title:  

NEW BREED OF HARDLINERS INFLUENCES KABILA

Tags:  PGOV PREL CG 
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P 271457Z FEB 03
FM AMEMBASSY KINSHASA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5287
INFO RWANDA COLLECTIVE
SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
JAC MOLESWORTH RAF
USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000477 

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2008
TAGS: PGOV PREL CG
SUBJECT: NEW BREED OF HARDLINERS INFLUENCES KABILA

REF: A. 2/25 E-MAIL HOOKS-BELLAMY/EASTHAM/AMADEO

B. KINSHASA 172

C. KINSHASA 447

CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF EDWARD BESTIC FOR REASONS 1.5 B AND D

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 000477

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2008
TAGS: PGOV PREL CG
SUBJECT: NEW BREED OF HARDLINERS INFLUENCES KABILA

REF: A. 2/25 E-MAIL HOOKS-BELLAMY/EASTHAM/AMADEO

B. KINSHASA 172

C. KINSHASA 447

CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF EDWARD BESTIC FOR REASONS 1.5 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY: IN RECENT WEEKS GDRC PRESIDENT JOSEPH KABILA
HAS APPROVED SEVERAL ACTIONS WHICH ARE REPRESENTATIVE OF A
SLOW-BUILDING EVOLUTION TOWARDS HARDLINE POLICIES. "HAWKISH"
ADVISERS SUCH AS AUGUSTIN KATUMBA, SAMBA KAPUTO AND EVARISTE
BOSHAB HAVE GAINED THE ASCENDANCY OVER MORE "MODERATE"
FIGURES SUCH AS VITAL KAMERHE, ANDRE KAPANGA AND THEOPHILE
MBEMBA. KABILA HIMSELF IS NOT AN INNOCENT VICTIM IN THIS
STORY. HE HAS NOW SURROUNDED HIMSELF WITH A NEW BREED OF
HARDLINERS--NOT HIS FATHER'S CRONIES, BUT A YOUNGER, MORE
SOPHISTICATED GROUP OF HAWKS. IN THE PAST, KABILA APPEARED
TO SHOW GREATER APPRECIATION FOR THE LONGER-TERM CONSEQUENCES
OF HIS CHOICES, IN PARTICULAR THE REACTION OF THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. THESE DAYS, HE IS TAKING HIS
ADVISERS' ADVICE SEEMINGLY WITH LESS REGARD FOR THEIR BROADER
IMPACT, AND APPEARS TO BE MOTIVATED BY A DESIRE TO STAY IN
POWER. END SUMMARY.

INCREASING HARDLINE TENDENCIES
--------------

2. (C) OVER THE PAST YEAR, THERE HAVE BEEN SIGNS THAT KABILA
HAS INCREASINGLY BEEN FAVORING THE VIEWS SHARED BY THE
"HAWKS" AROUND HIM. IN THE PAST FEW MONTHS ALONE, THE GDRC
HAS TAKEN SEVERAL ACTIONS IN LINE WITH THIS MODE OF THINKING.
EXAMPLES INCLUDE THE ATTEMPT TO EXPEL CONGOLESE LIBERATION
MOVEMENT (MLC) REPRESENTATIVES FROM KINSHASA IN JANUARY (REF
B),THE FIRING OF THE FINANCE MINISTER MATANGULU IN FEBRUARY
(REF C),AND, SINCE LATE 2002, THE DEPLOYMENT OF REGULAR GDRC
TROOPS TO THE BENI-BUTEMBO REGION--PUTTING THEM BEYOND THE
LUSAKA CEASEFIRE LINES.


3. (C) IN GENERAL, HARDLINERS TEND TO ESPOUSE THE BELIEF THAT
TIME IS ON KINSHASA'S SIDE IN THE REUNIFICATION PROCESS, THAT
THE OPPOSING BELLIGERENTS CAN BE OUTMANEUVERED, OUTLASTED,
AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY DEFEATED MILITARILY. INTERNATIONAL
PRESSURE CAN BE FENDED OFF BY SIGNING AGREEMENTS IN SUN CITY
AND PRETORIA, BUT ENOUGH OUTSTANDING DISPUTES (SUCH AS OVER
SECURITY) REMAIN THAT KINSHASA CAN MANIPULATE WITHOUT
APPEARING TO BE THE HOLDOUT. IN KEEPING WITH LONGTIME
CONGOLESE POLITICAL NORMS AND PRACTICES, THESE ADVISERS ARE
DOUBTLESS MOTIVATED IN NO SMALL PART BY A DESIRE TO KEEP
THEIR JOBS AND THEIR ACCESS TO WEALTH AND POWER. DESPITE

NATIONALIST RHETORIC--MODERATES ARE DENOUNCED AS
"TRAITORS"--SOME MAY IN FACT PREFER TO RULE UNCHALLENGED IN
PART OF THE COUNTRY RATHER THAN SHARE POWER WITH OTHERS IN A
NEW NATIONAL GOVERNMENT.

WHO HAS KABILA'S EAR?
--------------

4. (C) OVER THE PAST TWO YEARS, KABILA HAS REPLACED A GREAT
MANY OF THE "OLD GUARD" OF ADVISORS AND MINISTERS APPOINTED
BY HIS FATHER. ONCE-POWERFUL INDIVIDUALS SUCH AS MWENZE
KONGOLO, GAETAN KAKUDJI AND ABDOULAYE YERODIA HAVE LARGELY
BEEN SIDELINED. (YERODIA OCCASIONALLY RESURFACES TO SUPPORT
THE GOVERNMENT IN HIS BAS-CONGO HOME REGION, AND HAS RECENTLY
BEEN RUMORED--VERY SPECULATIVELY--AS A POSSIBLE GDRC VICE
PRESIDENT.)


5. (C) AMONG THE NEWER BREED, THE MOST INFLUENTIAL "HAWKS"
APPEAR TO BE ON KABILA'S OWN PERSONAL STAFF: CABINET DIRECTOR
EVARISTE BOSHAB, DEPUTY CABINET DIRECTOR SAMBA KAPUTO, AND
PIERRE LUMBI, DIRECTOR OF STRATEGIC STUDIES. PRESIDENTIAL
SPOKESMAN MULEGWA ZIHINDULA, IN A 23 FEB. PRIVATE MEETING
WITH THE AMBASSADOR, LEVELED CHARGES OF CORRUPTION AT ALL
THREE OF THESE INDIVIDUALS.

--BOSHAB IS FROM KASAI, A LAW PROFESSOR BY TRAINING AND
BACKGROUND, WHO HAD BEEN DEPUTY CABINET DIRECTOR UNTIL THE
OCTOBER 2002 SHUFFLE.

--KAPUTO, WHO IS PERHAPS MORE INFLUENTIAL THAN BOSHAB ON
POLICY MATTERS, WAS BORN IN KATANGA BUT RAISED IN THE KIVUS,
AND IS A POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR BY TRAINING. GOVERNOR
OF BANDUNDU AND ORIENTALE PROVINCES IN THE MOBUTU ERA, HE WAS
VITAL KAMERHE'S DEPUTY AT THE GREAT LAKES PEACE COMMISSION
UNTIL OCTOBER 2002, WHEN HE WAS TAKEN ON BOARD IN HIS CURRENT
CAPACITY. HE IS CONSIDERED THE PROTEGE OF AUGUSTIN KATUMBA.

--LUMBI, FROM MANIEMA, WAS AN UNOFFICIAL ADVISER PRIOR TO
OCTOBER 2002. AN EARLY CIVIL SOCIETY LEADER (HE FOUNDED A
SELF-HELP NGO IN 1978 WHEN SUCH ORGANIZATIONS WERE STILL
TECHNICALLY ILLEGAL),HE BECAME ETIENNE TSHISEKEDI'S FOREIGN
MINISTER IN 1992-3 AND THEN POST & COMMUNICATIONS MINISTER IN
THE KENGO WA DONDO GOVERNMENT.


6. (C) PERHAPS MORE IMPORTANT THAN THESE FORMAL ADVISERS IS
AUGUSTIN KATUMBA, WHO WAS MINISTER OF THE PRESIDENCY UNTIL HE
WAS SUSPENDED IN OCTOBER 2002 (FOLLOWING THE RELEASE OF THE
UN PANEL REPORT ON PLUNDERING THE DRC'S RESOURCES). KATUMBA,
LONG CONSIDERED KABILA'S RIGHT-HAND MAN, HAS BEEN ACTIVELY
INVOLVED IN ALL INTER-CONGOLESE DIALOGUE NEGOTIATIONS SINCE
SUN CITY. THIS HAS ENABLED HIM TO TRANSLATE THE HARDLINE
VIEW INTO THE GDRC'S NEGOTIATING POSITIONS AT THE VARIOUS
ROUNDS OF TALKS. CURRENT RUMOR HAS IT THAT HE MAY REPLACE
JEAN MBUYU AS KABILA'S SPECIAL SECURITY ADVISOR AND CHIEF OF
THE COMMITTEE FOR STATE SECURITY.


7. (C) REGARDING MILITARY MATTERS, HERETOFORE KABILA HAS
LISTENED TO ARMED FORCES CHIEF OF STAFF, LIEUTENANT GENERAL
LIWANGA MATA, AN EX-FAZ OFFICER. HOWEVER, HE ALSO LISTENS TO
ARMY COMMANDER GENERAL FRANCOIS OLENGA AND AIR FORCE
COMMANDER GENERAL JOHN NUMBI. OLENGA AND NUMBI ARE SIMILAR
IN THAT THEY ARE BOTH POLITICAL APPOINTEES WITH NO
PROFESSIONAL MILITARY BACKGROUND, HAVE VIOLENT STREAKS, AND
ARE REPUTED TO BE CORRUPT. THE TWO ARE RIVALS, EACH VYING
FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO TRAVEL ABROAD ON ARMS-BUYING TRIPS,
WHICH ENABLES THEM TO SKIM OFF A PERCENTAGE OF ANY SALES
TRANSACTION. THEY STAND TO LOSE SUCH OPPORTUNITIES AND
PERHAPS EVEN THEIR JOBS IF THE VARIOUS BELLIGERENTS' ARMIES
ARE MERGED.


8. (C) IN TERMS OF FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC POLICY, AS NOTED
EARLIER THE FIRING OF FINANCE MINISTER MATANGULU SENT
SHUDDERS THROUGH THE DONOR COMMUNITY. UNTIL RECENTLY,
MATANGULU HAD SUFFICIENT INFLUENCE OVER KABILA THAT ENABLED
THE FORMER TO "HOLD THE LINE" ON PUBLIC EXPENDITURES. HIS
OUSTER--OVER THE ISSUE OF MAINTAINING FISCAL DISCIPLINE--HAS
RAISED SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT THE GDRC'S INTENT TO ADHERE TO
IFI-APPROVED ECONOMIC POLICIES. IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT THERE
IS ANYONE LEFT AMONG KABILA'S CLOSE ADVISERS WHO IS PREPARED
TO CARRY ON MATANGULU'S ROLE AND PROVIDE SOUND, IF UNPOPULAR,
ADVICE ON ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL MATTERS. JEAN-CLAUDE
MASANGU AS CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR IS STILL MAINTAINING A
STABLE MONETARY POLICY, HOWEVER THERE HAVE BEEN FREQUENT
RUMORS THAT HE HIMSELF IS LESS THAN SQUEAKY CLEAN.


MODERATES, TAKING A BACK SEAT
--------------

9. (C) THOSE WHO PUBLICLY EXPRESS A MORE "MODERATE" VIEW
APPEAR TO HAVE WANING INFLUENCE. SUCH FIGURES INCLUDE:

--THEOPHILE MBEMBA, CABINET DIRECTOR UNTIL OCTOBER 2002,
SINCE THEN INTERIOR MINISTER, LED THE GDRC DELEGATION AT THE
PRETORIA NEGOTIATIONS IN DECEMBER, BUT HAS NOT PLAYED A
VISIBLE ROLE IN THESE NEGOTIATIONS SINCE.

--ANDRE KAPANGA, FORMERLY LAURENT KABILA'S PERMREP AT THE UN
IN NEW YORK, CURRENTLY KABILA'S POLITICAL AND DIPLOMATIC
ADVISER, HAS NOT TAKEN CHARGE OF HIS NEW BRIEF AND ALREADY
HAS BEEN MARGINALIZED; HE WAS ILL-INFORMED ABOUT KEY
DECISIONS SUCH AS THE ABORTIVE MLC EXPULSION ORDER.

--VITAL KAMERHE, LONGTIME CHIEF NEGOTIATORS IN THE INTERNAL
AND EXTERNAL PEACE PROCESSES, NOW PLAYS SECOND FIDDLE TO
SAMBA KAPUTO IN THESE TALKS.

--MULEGWA ZIHINDULA, PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESMAN SINCE OCTOBER
2002, CLAIMS TO BE EAGER TO SEE REFORM BUT HAS NOT
DEMONSTRATED SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON KABILA'S DECISIONS.

--LEONARD SHE OKITUNDU, FOREIGN MINISTER SINCE LAURENT
KABILA'S TIME, CURRENTLY HAS VIRTUALLY NO SAY IN IMPORTANT
MATTERS. HIS STAFF HAS COMPLAINED TO EMBOFFS SEVERAL TIMES
IN RECENT MONTHS ABOUT BEING MARGINALIZED.


COMMENT
--------------

10. (C) OVER THE PAST YEAR, THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW BUT
SIGNIFICANT EVOLUTION TOWARDS HARDLINE POLICIES ON THE PART
OF THE GDRC. KABILA HIMSELF IS NOT AN INNOCENT VICTIM IN
THIS STORY, HAVING APPOINTED THE VERY ADVISORS TO WHOM HE IS
CURRENTLY LISTENING. HE HAS NOW SURROUNDED HIMSELF WITH A
NEW BREED OF HARDLINERS--NOT HIS FATHER'S CRONIES, BUT A
YOUNGER, MORE SOPHISTICATED GROUP OF HAWKS. IN THE PAST,
KABILA APPEARED TO SHOW GREATER APPRECIATION FOR THE
LONGER-TERM CONSEQUENCES OF HIS CHOICES, IN PARTICULAR THE
REACTION OF THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. THESE DAYS, HE IS
TAKING HIS ADVISERS' ADVICE SEEMINGLY WITH LESS REGARD FOR
THEIR BROADER IMPACT, AND APPEARS TO BE MOTIVATED BY A DESIRE
TO STAY IN POWER. END COMMENT.


HOOKS