WANTED: LEADERSHIP AT DRC'S HELM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 003015


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2008
TAGS: MARR PGOV PINS PREL CG
SUBJECT: WANTED: LEADERSHIP AT DRC'S HELM

REF: KINSHASA 2653

CLASSIFIED BY: POLOFF EDWARD BESTIC FOR REASONS 1.5 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY: AFTER AN INITIAL BURST OF ACTIVITY, THE
DRC'S TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT HAS LOST MOMENTUM TOWARDS
REUNIFYING THE COUNTRY. PRESIDENT KABILA IN PARTICULAR HAS
FAILED TO ENERGIZE HIS CUMBERSOME GOVERNMENTAL STRUCTURE, BUT
PARLIAMENT AND MINISTERS HAVE LIKEWISE FAILED THE LEADERSHIP
CHALLENGE. FAILING TO BREAK THE LEADERSHIP LOGJAM COULD
RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY FRUSTRATED SOLDIERY AND POPULACE,
AND POSTPONED NATIONAL ELECTIONS. POST, IN CONJUNCTION WITH
OTHER KEY DIPLOMATIC ACTORS, IS WORKING TO JUMP-START JOSEPH
KABILA AND HIS STALLING TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT. END SUMMARY.


STUCK AT FIRST BASE
--------------

2. (C) AFTER AN INITIAL BURST OF ACTIVITY--SWEARING-IN OF THE
NEW GOVERNMENT IN JULY, INAUGURATION OF PARLIAMENT IN AUGUST,
CREATION OF AN INTEGRATED MILITARY COMMAND STRUCTURE IN
SEPTEMBER, AND APPOINTMENT OF MILITARY REGION COMMANDERS IN
OCTOBER--THE DRC'S TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT HAS SETTLED INTO A
LAZY PATTERN OF DRIFT AND NEGLECT. THE COUNTRY IS STILL
DIVIDED IN FACT, WITH EACH OF THE FORMER WARRING FACTIONS
STILL EFFECTIVELY IN CONTROL OF "ITS" TERRITORY. THERE HAS
BEEN VIRTUALLY NO ORGANIZED PROGRESS ON DEMOBILIZATION OF
FORMER COMBATANTS OR UNIFICATION OF THE VARIOUS ARMIES. THE
POLICE, INTELLIGENCE, IMMIGRATION, TERRITORIAL
ADMINISTRATION, DIPLOMATIC SERVICES AND STATE-OWNED
ENTERPRISES ALL REMAIN UNINTEGRATED. APPARENTLY LULLED BY
RECENT IMPROVEMENTS, ITURI HAS VIRTUALLY FALLEN OFF THE
TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT'S RADAR SCREEN.


3. (C) ENGROSSED IN SELF-ORGANIZATION, PARLIAMENT HAS ADOPTED
ONLY TWO SETS OF MINOR LEGISLATION SINCE IT WAS INAUGURATED
IN LATE AUGUST, NAMELY, THE 2003 BUDGET (COVERING ONLY THE
LAST SIX WEEKS IN CY2003),AND A SERIES OF AGREEMENTS ON
INTERNATIONAL LOANS. THE LIST OF KEY OUTSTANDING LEGISLATION
IS LONG AND INCLUDES THE 2004 BUDGET PLUS LAWS ON THE
ELECTORAL SYSTEM, NATIONALITY, DECENTRALIZATION, POLITICAL
PARTIES AND THE FIVE "CIVIL INSTITUTIONS." (NOTE: ACCORDING
TO THE TRANSITIONAL CONSTITUTION, ORGANIC LAWS ON THE LATTER
WERE SUPPOSED TO HAVE BEEN ADOPTED WITHIN THE FIRST THIRTY
DAYS OF PARLIAMENT. END NOTE.) KABILA'S DEPUTY CABINET
DIRECTOR, GUILLAUME SAMBA KAPUTO, TOLD DCM 26 NOVEMBER THAT
PARLIAMENT WOULD LIKELY HAVE A JANUARY RECESS. GIVEN THAT
THE OVERALL PACE IN KINSHASA TENDS TO SLOW BEFORE CHRISTMAS,
THIS MEANS THAT PARLIAMENT WOULD NOT REALLY BEGIN TO WORK
AGAIN UNTIL FEBRUARY.


A LEADERSHIP VACUUM
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4. (C) INSTEAD OF WORKING TO SOLVE PROBLEMS, THE TOP
POLITICAL LEADERS IN KINSHASA ARE MORE INTERESTED IN
APPORTIONING BLAME FOR INERTIA. IN RECENT MEETINGS WITH THE
AMBASSADOR, THREE OF THE FOUR VICE-PRESIDENTS EACH BLAMED
OTHERS FOR THE GOVERNMENT'S INACTION. PRESIDENT JOSEPH
KABILA, HABITUALLY SLOW TO MAKE DECISIONS, SHOWS FEW PUBLIC
SIGNS OF INITIATIVE OR LEADERSHIP. HE MEETS WITH HIS FOUR
VICE-PRESIDENTS ONLY SPORADICALLY; THERE IS LITTLE
SUBSTANTIVE COMMUNICATION BETWEEN THEM. SAMBA KAPUTO HIMSELF
TOLD DCM ON 26 NOVEMBER THAT THE CUMBERSOME 61-MEMBER COUNCIL
OF MINISTERS RATHER THAN THE "PRESIDENCY" (KABILA AND HIS
VP'S) IS SUPPOSED TO SERVE AS THE MAIN DECISION-MAKING BODY.


5. (C) THE INERTIA BEGINS AT THE TOP, BUT THROUGHOUT THE
GOVERNMENT THERE IS A MARKED LACK OF ENERGY AND ATTENTION TO
THE IMMEDIATE ISSUES. FEW OFFICIALS APPEAR TO BE DEVOTING
LONG HOURS TO THEIR WORK WHEN THEY ARE IN KINSHASA. KABILA
HIMSELF CHOSE TO SPEND A FULL WEEK IN KATANGA IN
MID-NOVEMBER, MEETING WITH LOCAL POLITICOS AND REPORTEDLY
DRIVING HIS 4X4 HUNDREDS OF KILOMETERS TO PERSONALLY INSPECT
ROAD CONDITIONS. OTHER OFFICIALS HAVE PREFERRED TO SPEND
THEIR TIME TRAVELING ABROAD, INCLUDING NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
PRESIDENT OLIVIER KAMITATU, WHO RECENTLY SPENT TWO WEEKS IN
EUROPE. ON 27 NOVEMBER THE FRENCH AMBASSADOR TOLD THE
AMBASSADOR THAT ON THE DAY OF 25 NOVEMBER, FIVE DIFFERENT
CONGOLESE MINISTERS WERE IN PARIS.


TIME, PATIENCE WEARING THIN?
--------------

6. (C) ONE IMMEDIATE EFFECT OF THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT'S
LEISURELY PACE IS AN INVOLUNTARY DISSEMINATION OF AUTHORITY
TO THE PROVINCES, WHERE REGIONAL MILITARY COMMANDERS ARE
RUNNING AD-HOC DDR PROGRAMS AND SOME GOVERNORS ARE
CONSOLIDATING THEIR FIEFDOMS. ANOTHER EFFECT OF FAILING TO
MEET--OR AT LEAST MANAGE--PUBLIC EXPECTATIONS IS RISING
LEVELS OF DISCONTENT AMONG THE POPULACE. THERE HAVE BEEN
INITIAL SIGNS OF FRUSTRATION AMONG THE MOSTLY-UNPAID FOR
SEVERAL DAYS RECENTLY, DUE TO NON-PAYMENT OF SALARIES.
ELECTORAL PREPARATIONS--IN A MASSIVE COUNTRY WITH DEVASTATED
INFRASTRUCTURE AND VIRTUALLY NO DEMOCRATIC EXPERIENCE--HAVE ALSO
STALLED AT THE INITIAL PLANNING STAGE. THE TRANSITIONAL
GOVERNMENT HAS ALREADY USED UP ALMOST A QUARTER OF ITS
SELF-IMPOSED 24 MONTH DEADLINE FOR HOLDING NATIONAL ELECTIONS,
RAISING THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT WILL EXTEND PAST TWO PERMISSIBLE
SIX-MONTH EXTENSIONS INTO LEGAL NEVER-NEVER LAND.


GROUP INTERVENTION FOR DRC'S DYSFUNCTIONAL LEADERS
-------------- --------------

7. (C) THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT URGENTLY NEEDS TO FOCUS ON
REGAINING ITS LOST MOMENTUM, AND JOSEPH KABILA NEEDS TO BE
GOADED INTO ASSUMING HIS RESPONSIBILITIES AS HEAD OF STATE--A
POSITION HE STRUGGLED TO ATTAIN. THE AMBASSADOR WILL
PARTICIPATE IN A DECEMBER 2 MEETING OF THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMITTEE TO SUPPORT THE TRANSITION (CIAT),WHICH HAS A
THREE-FOLD AGENDA: FIRST, TO REQUEST A MEETING WITH KABILA,
THE VICE-PRESIDENTS, AND THE LEADERS OF PARLIAMENT, AND SHARE
THE CIAT'S ANALYSIS OF THE SITUATION WITH THEM; SECOND, TO
URGE THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT TO GET BACK TO WORK; AND
THIRD, TO PROPOSE SPECIFIC ACTIONS TO REENERGIZE THE
TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT SUCH AS SENDING MIXED OFFICIAL
DELEGATIONS TO EASTERN CONGO, REMITTANCE OF REVENUES
COLLECTED IN EX-REBEL TERRITORIES TO THE CENTRAL COFFER, AND
ADOPTION OF A NATIONAL DEMOBILIZATION PLAN.


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