Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03KATHMANDU991
2003-05-30 09:31:00
SECRET
Embassy Kathmandu
Cable title:  

NEPAL: PM RESIGNS; NEW GOVERNMENT,PROBABLY WITH

Tags:  PGOV PREL NP GON 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000991 

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL: PM RESIGNS; NEW GOVERNMENT,PROBABLY WITH
SOME OLD FACES, TO BE FORMED

REF: A. KATHMANDU 0961

B. KATHMANDU 0978

Classified By: CDA ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

-------
SUMMARY
--------

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000991

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/29/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL: PM RESIGNS; NEW GOVERNMENT,PROBABLY WITH
SOME OLD FACES, TO BE FORMED

REF: A. KATHMANDU 0961

B. KATHMANDU 0978

Classified By: CDA ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) Prime Minister Lokendra Bahadur Chand resigned from
office on May 30. Well-placed Palace sources predict the
Palace will approach leaders of the Parliamentary parties to
form an all-party government. A confidant of the King
credits US (and, we believe, Indian) pressure with
encouraging the King to compromise. Palace sources are
suggesting former Panchayat Prime Minister and head of the
National Democratic Party Surya Bahadur Thapa as the parties'
consensus candidate for Prime Minister. Whether the parties
will accept this initiative, if it is indeed offered, depends
on several factors, including whether all can agree on the
aging, four-time former Prime Minister to head an all-party
Cabinet. End summary.

--------------
KING TAPPING THAPA?
--------------


2. (S) Royal confidant Prabhakar Rana told Charge on May 29
that he had been instructed by King Gyanendra to inform him
that Prime Minster Lokendra Bahadur Chand would step down the
following day and that the King would invite leaders of the
Parliamentary parties to form a new all-party interim
government. Rana predicted that the parties will choose
former leader of the rightist National Democratic Party
(known by its Nepali acronym as RPP) and four-time former
Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa as the consensus nominee
to head the new government. Thapa will be more acceptable to
the parties than Chand (another former RPP leader and
Panchayat Prime Minister),Rana said confidently, because he
is perceived as being more supportive of democracy and has a
reputation as a savvy politician, able to build consensus and
take decisions. (Note: This is the second time we have
heard this prospective scenario from Rana. The first
time--in mid-April--events did not unfold as described. End
note.)


3. (S) Rana said the King had been influenced to act
because of USG concerns, conveyed by Charge in a May 28
meeting with Rana, that the Palace was missing an opportunity
to bring the parties together for the good of the nation.

(Comment: Indian pressure on the King may have proved even
more decisive. See Para 4 below. End comment.) For the
initiative to work, however, the Palace is relying on the
Embassy to help persuade the parties to cooperate, Rana said.
Should the parties fail to take advantage of this opening,
the King will be forced "to take other action," Rana
cautioned. The Charge asked what effect a change in Cabinet
might have on ongoing dialogue with Maoist insurgents, since
all the members of the Government negotiating team are also
Cabinet members. Rana related that since the Maoists had
expressed discontent with the head of the Government team,
Information Minister Ramesh Nath Pandey, and that some
reportedly were even complaining about dialogue coordinator
and Physical Planning Minister Narayan Singh Pun, perhaps a
change would be good. (Comment: We're willing to believe
the Maoists want to get rid of Pandey; the comments about Pun
seem less credible. In our view, retaining Pun, who first
established dialogue with the Maoists, would help maintain
continuity and confidence in the talks. End comment.)


4. (S) Later the same evening Charge was contacted at home
by Geeta Joshi, an advisor to PM Chand, who confirmed that
Chand would step down. Joshi said the move was prompted by
the "tremendous pressure" the Indians had brought to bear on
the King to compromise with the political parties.


5. (SBU) On May 30 Prime Minister Chand announced his
resignation. According to the state-owned news agency, the
rest of his Cabinet will continue until a new government can
be formed. According to police sources, by mid-afternoon the
King had invited members of the parliamentary parties to the
long-deferred "tea party" to discuss formation of a new
Cabinet.


6. (S) A high-ranking member of the National Security
Council told us on May 30 that the King plans to invite first
all former Prime Ministers to a discussion, to be followed by
members of the Parliamentary parties. Besides Thapa, he
suggested former Speaker of Parliament Taranath Ranabhat as a
possible consensus candidate. Madhav Nepal, the head of the
Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML),
currently the largest party in the country, is no longer in
the running, he indicated.

--------------
PARTIES ARE WEIGHING OPTIONS
--------------


7. (SBU) Even before the PM's announcement, on May 30 the
local press was reporting the rumor that Chand would step
down and be replaced by Thapa. Jhala Nath Khanal, a Central
Committee member of the Communist Party of Nepal - United
Marxist Leninist (UML) told us that Thapa had been informally
proposed to the UML as a consensus candidate by current RPP
President Pashupati S.J.B. Rana. The UML would obviously
prefer that someone from one of the two largest parties--the
UML or the Nepali Congress--be tapped, but the UML respects
Thapa's pro-democracy stance and would not reject his
candidacy out of hand, Khanal said.


8. (U) Khanal's comparatively conciliatory tone contrasts
sharply with recent hard-line rhetoric emanating from the
parties, especially since their May 28-29 "reconvening" of
the dissolved Parliament at the Royal Nepal Academy (Ref B).
Some former MPs at the May 29 sit-in--including some from the
UML--reportedly called for the establishment of a republic if
the King continues his "activism." The meeting, which was
chaired by Nepali Congress President and former Prime
Minister G.P. Koirala, adopted a six-point statement,
featuring a proposal that the Chand government be replaced by
either an all-party government or by reinstatement of the
Parliament.

--------------
PARTIES' PROBABLE REACTION:
A LOT DEPENDS ON PACKAGING
--------------


9. (S) Comment: Whether or not the parties will accept this
initiative depends, to a large degree, on how it is presented
to them. Chand was, by all accounts, the parties' consensus
candidate for interim Prime Minister in October. Only after
the King appointed all the rest of the Cabinet as well (a
move which royal confidant Rana now acknowledges as a
misstep) did the parties begin to complain that the
government was "unconstitutional." However much the UML and
the Nepali Congress might wish it, the King is unlikely to
accept the head of either party as PM. There is too much bad
blood by now between Koirala (who had apparently threatened
to accuse the King publicly of involvement in the royal
massacre) and the King, while both the Indians and the
Maoists harbor strong objections (albeit for different
reasons) to the nomination of UML General Secretary Madhav
Nepal. As a former leader of the pro-Palace RPP and a former
Prime Minister during the autocratic Panchayat regime, Surya
Bahadur Thapa is obviously more preferable--and can be
expected to be more sympathetic--to the King. His
pro-democracy credentials, on the other hand, could make him
more palatable to the parties, who could see him as less
easily manipulated by the Palace than long-time rival Chand.


10. (S) Comment continued: The King's reported intention
to seek a consensus PM and form a consensus Cabinet is indeed
welcome news. But since the parties already feel, whether
justifiably or not, that they were hoodwinked by the Palace
the last time into agreeing to Chand with the understanding
that other portfolios in the Cabinet would be equitably doled
out--only to have the King appoint the rest of the Cabinet as
well--the parties may be doubly cautious and suspicious this
time. If the parties perceive that Thapa is being forced
upon them, they may become recalcitrant--thereby possibly
incurring the "other action" by the King that Rana hinted at.
If the "tea party" initiative fails to result in the desired
consensus, the King may harden his stance against the
parties, and mutual suspicion will increase. We will
continue to encourage both the parties and our Palace
interlocutors to work together to form a government that more
closely reflects Nepal's multi-party landscape.
BOGGS