NEPAL: MAOISTS POSTURING FOR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 000507

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL/ERIEDEL
NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2008
TAGS: PINS PTER NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOISTS POSTURING FOR CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY

REF: KATHMANDU 480

Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski for reasons 1.5 (d).

Summary
=======


1. (SBU) On March 19, the Ambassador met with Kul Chandra
Gautam, Deputy Executive Director with UNICEF in New York,
and a Nepali visiting the country for personal and
professional reasons. Gautam related a conversation with the
Maoists' second-in-command regarding the latter's desire for
a constituent assembly and his expectations for the form it
should take. Gautam's conversation is reflective of the
Maoists' ongoing charm offensive, in which they are trying to
project the image of a democratic party. As reported in
reftel, however, there is no evidence the Maoists have
abandoned their basic goal of gaining power in Nepal at the
head of a communist, single-party state. End summary.

Content Is Less Important than Form
===================================


2. (SBU) On March 19, the Ambassador met with Kul Chandra
Gautam, Deputy Executive Director with UNICEF in New York,
and a Nepali visiting the country out of personal and
professional concerns. Gautam described his meetings with a
range of political leaders, including phone calls with Maoist
second-in-command, Baburam Bhattarai, about the political
future of Nepal.


3. (C) According to Gautam, Bhattarai stated that the
process for resolving Nepal's conflict is as important as the
content of the final resolution. Even if the King issued a
"progressive" constitution, in doing so he would undermine
the people's sovereignty, Bhattarai argued. Gautam reported
Bhattarai's contention that resolution of Nepal's domestic
conflict can come only through a constituent assembly.
Bhattarai claims the Maoists are on a winning streak.
However, the Maoist leadership cannot satisfy the demands of
its cadres with promises of only amendments to the present
constitution. For Maoist leaders to satisfy their followers,
they must persuade the government to accede to a sovereign
constituent assembly. (Note: The term "sovereign" was not
defined during the discussion and could refer either to the
people's sovereignty as defined by the existing constitution
or to an agreement that the conclusions of the constituent
assembly have sovereign status.)

Maoists as Supposed Defenders of Democracy?
===========================================


4. (C) As reported by Gautam, Bhattarai expects elections to
be held for representation to a constituent assembly. During
the campaign, all parties, including the Maoists, should be
allowed to compete on their respective platforms. For the
Maoists, this includes calling for the establishment of a
communist republic. Bhattarai, according to Gautam, stated
that if the Maoists' vision is not accepted by the people
during the constituent assembly elections, they will abide by
the will of the people. Gautam's own opinion is that all
parties should contest constituent assembly elections because
that mechanism would either resolve the conflict through
democratic means or serve to "call the Maoists's bluff."

Comment
=======


5. (C) The conversation related by Gautam appears to reflect
part of an ongoing charm offensive by the Maoists to improve
their stature as a legitimate political party--a strategy
made necessary by their loss of public support due to their
violent excesses over the past year. Gautam's contact with
Bhattarai provides insight into the Maoists' political
strategy, particularly in light of evidence that they
continue to pursue their fundamental goal of the creation of
a communist republic (reftel). Bhattarai's promise to abide
by the electorate's free choice of delegates to a constituent
assembly is credible only as a tactic to curry favor among
political party leaders, human rights advocates, and the
international community. By reaching out to political
parties, in particular, the Maoists may hope to muster enough
support in a constituent assembly to engineer a new
constitution that would marginalize the monarchy and make the
army susceptible to Maoist infiltration and eventual control.
MALINOWSKI