NEPAL'S TOP POLITICOS SHUN PM; PUSH FOR ALL-PARTY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KATHMANDU 000468

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL
NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/11/2013
TAGS: PGOV NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL'S TOP POLITICOS SHUN PM; PUSH FOR ALL-PARTY
GOVERNMENT

REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 0426


B. (B) KATHMANDU 0292

Classified By: AMB. MICHAEL E. MALINOWSKI. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) On March 10 leaders of most political parties
boycotted for the second time an all-party meeting called by
interim Prime Minister Chand. One day later, 11 left-wing
parties, including the Maoists, met to discuss "a joint
movement" against Chand's government. King Gyanendra met
separately with leaders of most major political parties on
March 10 and 11. In at least one of these meetings, the King
reportedly hinted at dissatisfaction with the performance of
the interim government, thereby presumably opening the
possibility of a replacement. On March 12 the leaders of the
two largest political parties agreed to press the King either
to reinstate Parliament or establish an all-party government
to replace the Chand government. The parties' continued
opposition to the Chand government and increasingly unified
stand may increase pressure on the Palace to consider an
all-party government. The Maoists, however, are likely to
object strongly to such a government if it is headed by the
moderate Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist
(UML). End summary.

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PARTIES MEET KING;
SHUN CHAND
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2. (C) On March 10 and 11 King Gyanendra met separately
with the leaders of most political parties that had members
in the previous Parliament. (Note: The King did not meet
with the heads of the National Democratic Party and the Nepal
Sadbhavana Party, the parties of the Prime Minister and
Deputy Prime Minister respectively, as they are already
represented in the interim government. Amik Sherchan, leader
of the far-left People's Front Nepal, declined the King's
invitation because it did not satisfy the parties' previous
request to meet the monarch as a group. End note.) In his
March 11 meeting with Sher Bahadur Deuba, former Prime
Minister and current head of the Nepali Congress
(Democratic),the King "conveyed the impression that he is
not satisfied with the current government" of Prime Minister
Lokendra Bahadur Chand, according to Minendra Rijal, a Deuba
confidante, and hinted at the possibility of an all-party
government. Deuba reportedly told the King that he would
participate, if asked, in such a government. Deuba's party
has not formed "a firm opinion" regarding prospects for
peace, Rijal said, since "we don't know what arrangements
(have been made) between the King and the Maoists" and are
thus only "second-guessing the Government."


3. (U) While nearly all of the parties accepted the King's
invitation to meet, none (except the National Democratic
Party and the Nepal Sadbhavana Party) extended similar
courtesy to PM Chand on March 10, when they boycotted for the
second time in two months an all-party meeting he called to
discuss propsective negotiations with the Maoists. The local
independent press reporting the boycott accorded prominent
coverage to party leaders' derisive characterizations of the
Chand government ("unconstitutional," "illegitimate,"
"puppet") to justify their decisions to stay away. With so
many no-shows, an all-party meeting originally intended to
discuss how the interim government can bring the Maoists into
the political mainstream focused instead on how the interim
government could induce parties already in the political
mainstream to recognize its legitimacy.

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LEFT-WING UNITY
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4. (SBU) On March 11 Madhav Kumar Nepal, General Secretary
of the Communist Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist
(UML),hosted a meeting of representatives of 11 far-left
parties, including the Maoists--the first time all 11 parties
had met together since the early 1990s, according to one
participant. (Note: Only 3 of the 11 had representatives in
the most recent Parliament. End note.) C.P. Mainali,
Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal - Marxist Leninist
(ML),who attended the meeting, said Nepal proposed the
formation of an all-party government to replace the current
non-party government. All of the legal party participants
supported the proposal, Mainali reported. Maoist
representative Dinanath Sharma said he must seek his
leadership's permission before making a commitment, but
pledged support for "progressive change," including the
parties' "united move" to protest the King's "regressive
action" (i.e., his appointment of a non-party interim
government in October). The proposal must be approved by the
three political forces--the King, the parties, and the
Maoists--if it is to work, Mainali noted. He said he is
optimistic that both the Palace and the Maoists, who he said
do not recognize the Chand government, will accept the
proposal. The Maoists would not be able to participate
directly in the envisioned all-party government, Mainali
said, but could perhaps nominate surrogate representatives
from legal far-left parties sympathetic to them. Whether the
Maoists would accept an all-party government headed by Madhav
Nepal is a "difficult question," Mainali conceded, but
suggested that the contentious question of leadership could
be amicably sorted out once the Maoists endorse the concept
of an all-party government.

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KOIRALA CLIMBS DOWN
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5. (SBU) In a show of unprecedented unity, on March 12 the
leaders of four Parliamentary parties, including UML General
Secretary Nepal and Nepali Congress President G.P. Koirala,

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announced that they would support replacing the Chand
government with either an all-party government (Nepal's
preferred option) or through the reinstatement of Parliament
(Koirala's pet proposal). (Note: Although the National
Democratic Party did not attend that meeting, its leadership
has indicated privately it would join an all-party
government. End note.) The leaders said they will seek a
joint meeting with the King to explain their proposals, and
will foster public support and pressure through a series of
mass meetings. The statement marks the first time Nepali
Congress President Koirala has compromised on his previously
rigid stand that Parliament must be reinstated.

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COMMENT
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6. (C) Before March 12 the Parliamentary parties (minus the
PM's National Democratic and the Deputy PM's Nepal Sadbhavana
Parties) had been united only in their opposition to the
Chand government. Disagreement over what (or, more
accurately, who) would replace the King's appointed Cabinet
had prevented the formation of a unified multipartisan front.
The Nepali Congress' Koirala had been especially rigid in
his near-monomaniacal insistence on reinstating Parliament.
As long as the parties remained divided, the Palace could
more easily dismiss their complaints about the "illegitimate"
interim government by citing their failure to propose a
workable alternative. The parties' new-found unity and
Koirala's atypical compromise will make this more difficult.
The multi-partisan unity, if it lasts, will also complicate
matters for the Maoists, who had thrived on the partisan
strife of the domestic political arena over the past decade.
We agree with Mainali's analysis that the all-party proposal
must win the approval of the Palace, parties, and the Maoists
in order to succeed, but are less sanguine that the
all-important question of who would lead this government may
not prove a deal-breaker. Despite the lip service to
"progressive change" the Maoist representative offered in his
meeting with the left parties, we sincerely doubt the
insurgents would welcome any "progressive change" that
results in a government led by its arch enemy, the UML.




MALINOWSKI