NEPAL: MAOISTS CALL OFF GENERAL STRIKE;

UNCLAS KATHMANDU 000185

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

STATE FOR SA/INS AND DS/IP/SA
LONDON FOR POL - RIEDEL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PTER PGOV CASC SOCI NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOISTS CALL OFF GENERAL STRIKE;
EDUCATIONAL STRIKE THREAT REMAINS IN EFFECT

REF: A. (A) KATHMANDU 0175


B. (B) 02 KATHMANDU 2456


1. (U) The Maoists issued a press release on February 2
cancelling the general strike, or "bandh," scheduled to
commemorate the seventh anniversary of their insurgency on
February 13-14. The press statement said the strike is being
called off in consideration of the "present changing
circumstances" brought about by the ceasefire announced
January 29 (Ref A). At the same time, however, the statement
urges Maoist cadre to conduct peaceful observances of
unspecified "programs" to mark the anniversary.


2. (U) Despite the cancellation of the general strike, a
leader of the Maoist-affiliated All Nepal National
Independent Students Union (Revolutionary) (ANNISU-R) told
the local press on January 31 that the "indefinite"
educational strike called by his organization to begin
February 13 will go forward. (Note: The Government of Nepal
has not withdrawn the terrorist designation from ANNISU-R as
it has from the parent wing. End note.) The ANNISU-R cited
what it described as the failure by both the Government and
the Private and Boarding School Association of Nepal (PABSON)
to fulfill fully commitments they had made (in response to
ANNISU-R demands) to end the Maoist strike against private
schools December 9-23 (Ref B). A prolonged strike in
February will disrupt preparations for final examinations,
which are scheduled to begin the first week of March.


3. (SBU) One of ANNISU-R's major demands during the last
strike was that private schools slash their fees by up to 25
percent. (Note: The way the agreement was structured,
schools with the highest fees--and with presumably the most
affluent students--agreed to the steepest cuts. Thus,
paradoxically, the previous ANNISU-R strike succeeded in
getting tuition cuts for the richest families of students at
private schools. End note.) According to Rajesh Khadga, the
president of PABSON, about 75 percent of the schools that are
members of PABSON have reduced their fees "to some extent,"
although not necessarily by the amount agreed. He said his
organization is trying to contact ANNISU-R, whose members are
still underground, about their demands. He added that PABSON
member schools will not postpone final exams.


4. (SBU) Comment: As is all too typical, the Maoists
appear to be talking out of both sides of their mouths,
calling off a limited general closure as a show of purported
good will while cynically allowing an indefinite strike
targeting the most vulnerable elements of the
population--children--to go forward. Alternatively, the
question of bandhs may provide a public demonstration of
whether the Maoist high command can--or wants to--control the
actions of younger cadre who may have their own agenda.
Whether the strike goes ahead as planned--and whether the
Maoists, as in the past, use violence to enforce it--will be
important tests of the insurgents' good faith in pursuing
dialogue. The Embassy will hold an EAC meeting February 4 to
review the situation and to make recommendations to the
international school board.
MALINOWSKI