NEPAL: MAOISTS BREAK CEASE-FIRE, ATTEMPT TO BLAME

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 KATHMANDU 001644

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA, SA/INS, DS/IP/SA, CA/OCS
LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY
NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/26/2013
TAGS: PTER CASC ASEC NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: MAOISTS BREAK CEASE-FIRE, ATTEMPT TO BLAME
GOVERNMENT

REF: KATHMANDU 1620

Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski for reasons 1.5 (b) and
(d).

Summary
========


1. (SBU) On August 27, the Maoists unilaterally withdrew
from the cease-fire, blaming the Government of Nepal (GON)
for refusing to accept a constituent assembly and for alleged
attacks on Maoist cadres over the past month. The security
forces have adopted new Rules of Engagement that allow
commanders to aggressively pursue Maoists in the field.
Although at least one facilitator in the peace talks is
continuing last-ditch efforts to save the peace process, we
expect the Maoists to resume full-scale violence against
GON--and possibly civilian--targets. The Embassy held an EAC
(septel) and disseminated a Warden Message. End summary.

Maoists Withdraw from Cease-Fire
=================================


2. (U) In a chilling replay of their unilateral decision to
break the 2001 ceasefire, on August 27, the Communist Party
of Nepal (Maoist),CPN(M),leader Pushpa Kamal Dahal (a.k.a.
Prachanda) announced via the group's website that the
cease-fire, code of conduct, and peace talks have "lost their
relevance" (website: http://cpnm.org). (Note: The "loss of
relevance" line echoes a similar Maoist press release that
ended the 2001 government-Maoist peace talks. The
announcement in 2001 was followed by simultaneous attacks on
security forces. End note.) Prachanda blamed the Government
of Nepal's (GoN's) refusal to accept a constituent assembly
and attacks on Maoist cadres that were "intiated" by the
Royal Nepalese Army (RNA). (Full translation of the
statement is provided at paragraph 7.) Prachanda states that
the Maoists remain open to talks, but only if the GoN
concedes to all of the Maoists' demands.

Security Forces Reply
======================


3. (C) Brigadier General Kul Bahadur Khadka, Director of
Military Operations, reported to the DATT that groups of
Maoists are massing in the districts of Pyuthan (in Nepal's
mid-west region),Lamjung (in Nepal's western region),and
Udayapur (in Nepal's eastern region). He stated further that
the National Security Council has directed the RNA to use its
pre-cease-fire Rules of Engagement, which allows security
forces to actively patrol and pursue armed Maoist
concentrations. The RNA Division Commanders have been given
authority to conduct operations within their theater of
responsbility, as they see fit. According to Khadka, the
Police and Army have ordered the abandonment of roughly 50
small posts in the Terai (Nepal's lowlands),with the
personnel to be concentrated in larger, more defensible
positions. Some small posts in the hills and mountains have
already been abandoned.

Peace Talks Facilitator Holds Out Hope
========================================


4. (SBU) The Ambassador met with peace talks facilitator
Shailendra Upadhaya on August 27. Upadhaya reported that the
Maoists were "suspicious" of the GoN's actions and intentions
even before the first round of negotiations in April. He
credited the facilitators' efforts with reassuring the
Maoists enough to bring them to the table. Upadhaya said he
hopes to meet with Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa on
August 28 or 29 to press him to issue an unequivocal
statement committing the Government to continue the peace
talks and to sign a proposed human rights monitoring accord.
A clear statement of the GON's peaceful intentions would help
dispel the "confusion" generated by Maoist propaganda that
the Government is not interested in negotiations. In
Upadhaya's opinion, the Maoists are not anxious to return to
large-scale conflict at this point, and some hope that the
peace process can be rescued remains. He believes that
Prachanda's statement is only a tactic to pressure the
Government into conceding to the Maoist demand for a
constituent assembly. Upadhaya reported that Padma Ratna
Tuladhar, the peace talks facilitator most closely associated
with the Maoist leadership, had a meeting with the Prime
Minister on August 27, in which the Prime Minister requested
Tuladhar use his influence to keep the Maoists at the
negotiating table. Upadhaya expects that the Maoists will
utilize contacts and surrogates within civil society to
assist them in shifting responsibility for the collapse of
the talks on the GoN. Upadhaya does not believe his efforts
have a good chance of success. However, he believes that the
effort is worthwhile. If it fails and the Maoists remain
intransigent, then the only recourse the Government would
have is to try to "crush" the Maoists.

Police
======


5. (C) A senior police official told us on August 27 that
he believes that the Maoists have already set up special
commando units prepared to carry out targeted bombings
attacks against high-ranking GON officials in the Kathmandu
Valley. Another police source confirmed that the Maoists
have already drafted a target list of 22 GON officials.

Security of American Citizens
==============================


6. (U) The Embassy held an EAC meeting today to discuss the
security situation (septel). The Embassy disseminated a
Warden Message notifying American citizens on the turn of
events. The Embassy will continue to monitor the situation
and notify American citizens as appropriate.


Comment
========


7. (C) As expected, the Maoists are attempting to blame the
GoN and RNA for its unilateral decision to break the
cease-fire. They will make an effort with their assets in
Nepalese civil society, including human rights groups, to
rationalize or justify renewed Maoist violence as a reaction
to Government abuses or aggression. This is unlikely to fly,
however, with a public increasingly aware of Maoist
depredations. As the Embassy reported in reftel, the Maoists
have been flagarantly violating the cease-fire since August

1. In the coming days, the Embassy expects that the Maoists
will folow up this rhetorical broadside with military attacks
on the security forces, although probably not on reinforced,
fixed positions. It is also possible that the Maoists will
increase operations in urban areas, including Kathmandu,
possibly including attacks on senior GON officials--a
signficant change in tactics from the Maoists' pre-cease-fire
modus operandi.

Maoist Press Statement
=======================


7. (U) Begin Translation:

Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist)
Central Committee

Press Release

It is a known fact that our party was involved in peace talks
and a cease-fire with the old regime with the view of the
strategic balance in the civil war and in order to honor the
people's desire to find a peaceful way out. Our party had
taken the cease-fire and the code of conduct very seriously,
and we naturally expected similar seriousness from the old
regime. The People's Liberation Army under our Party
observed the cease-fire and code of conduct in letter and
spirit, while from the very beginning the Royal Army under
the old regime kept on violating it. Even after the
announcement of the cease-fire, the Royal Army not only
increased unecessary checkpoints and arrests but also rounded
up and arrested a group of the People's Army personnel who
were peacefully staying in Kanchanpur and mercilessly killed
our workers in different places, including Darchula,
Makwanpur, and Bhojpur. Such activities carried out by the
Royal Army at the beginning of the cease-fire hurt the hopes
and aspirations of our Party and the people for a peaceful,
political way out.

In spite of all this, with the sense of responsbility to the
country and the people, our Party continued with efforts not
to spoil the environment for talks. At the first round of
formal peace talks, our party presented the minimum political
agenda. To strengthen the implementation of the cease-fire
and code of conduct, which had been weakened by the
undesirable activities of the Royal Army, and to continue
talks, an agreement was reached to confine the Royal Army
within five kilometers of their barracks during the second
round. The Royal Army not only rejected the agreement
outright, but the Army pressured the government to withdraw
from the commitment. After this incident, the peace talks
became orphaned and suffered from a serious crisis of
confidence on the possibility of a peaceful and progressive
political way out. When the new talks team of the old regime
committed in principle to discipline the Royal Army and in
the context of releasing our Party's Central Committee
members, our Party directed its talks team to participate in
the third round of peace talks with new hope.

The way the establishment presented its concept paper not
only ignored existing, fundamental problems, but also
appeared to hatch a conspiracy to strengthen the feudalistic
retrogression of October 4 with sweet toffees of reform. The
concept paper, which even failed to address the demands of
the major political parties who support constitutional
monarchy and multiparty democracy, virtually finished the
relevance of the talks by asking us to politically surrender
by laying down our arms. Our talks team, while rejecting the
offer totally, made it clear that the fourth round of talks
could only take place if the old regime comes up with a new
proposal that includes constituent assembly, otherwise there
is no meaning in the continuation of the talks. Just when
the third round of talks were on, the Royal Army rounded up
two civilians and seventeen of our unarmed workers, who were
holding their Area Committee Meeting in Doramba of Ramechhap
District, and slaughtered them by tying their hands behind
their backs. In this manner the concept paper presented by
the establishment and the genocide of nineteen people carried
out by the Royal Army in Doramba, virtually announced the
break-up of the peace talks militarily. The shedding of
crocodile tears and by making hue and cry about being
committed to the talks is an example of extreme immorality
and cunningness of the establishment to mislead the country
and the world at large.

It is known to everyone that our party is a revolutionary
party fighting for a people's republic. We had come to the
table for talks by withholding our slogan for people's
republic for the time being and sought to resolve the problem
through the election of a constituent assembly to fulfill the
people's desire for peace and for stopping foreign
interference carried out by the old regime, which is
dangerous to national independence. The slogan of
constituent assembly is not the slogan of communist
revolutionaries. We do not see any reason to hesitate for a
constituent assembly for those who believe in people's
sovereignty. To hold portions of the Constitution as
unchangeable and to protest against constituent assembly
proves that the old regime does not have faith in the people.
Our stand for constituent assembly is to ensure that the
right of the people to chose and run its own political system
is not undermined. There can be nothing more scientific and
democratic than letting the people decide, when there is a
triangular power struggle underway and danger to the nation's
independence is increasing, the national interests of the
country. Unfortunately, the old regime is not ready to make
the people sovereign through constituent assembly.

Under the circumstances, there is no alternative for the
Nepalese people than to protest against the despotic
activities of the old regime. Therefore, our Party wants to
make it clear that the relevance of the cease-fire, the code
of conduct, and the peace process with the old regime has
ended. Our Party wants to extend its sincere gratitude and
thanks to the peace talks facilitators, all the political
parties, human rights organizations, intellectuals, the
people, and friends here and abroad and express our desire to
continue our relationship through regular interactions. We
will not close the door for talks from our side. We can
again sit for talks in order to establish people's sovereign
power and fundamental interest. Our party heartily requests
all the people-oriented powers here and abroad to create such
environment and extend cooperation.

August 27, 2003

Prachanda
Chairman
CPN (Maoists) Central Committee

End translation.
MALINOWSKI