NEPAL: GOVERNMENT-MAOIST NEGOTIATIONS GENERATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001565

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/17/2013
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS NP GON
SUBJECT: NEPAL: GOVERNMENT-MAOIST NEGOTIATIONS GENERATE
FRICTION, BUT CONTINUE

REF: A. KATHMANDU 1559

B. KATHMANDU 1552

Classified By: DCM ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Government of Nepal (GON) and Maoist insurgents
opened the third round of negotiations in the southwestern
city of Nepalgunj on August 17. The GON team presented a
package of proposed political reforms that include two of the
three main Maoist demands. Speaking to the press after the
first session on August 17, Maoist negotiator Baburam
Bhattarai denounced the GON package, which proposed an
all-party committee to amend the existing Constitution,
rather than an assembly to draft a new one, as inadequate.
The Maoist also blasted the GON bid to place disarming of the
insurgents on the agenda for future negotiations. Despite
Bhattarai's discouraging pronouncement, negotiators met for a
second session on August 18 in the southwestern district of
Dang. At this point, it is difficult to determine if
Bhattarai's categorically negative reaction is mere theatrics
or accurately reflects the Maoist position. If the latter,
there seems little hope that the Maoists will remain engaged
in negotiations that they perceive offer no immediate avenue
to their true objective--power. The GON proposals will
intensify pressure on the Maoists either to embark on serious
discussions of political reform or to break off talks and
resume violence. End summary.

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ROUND 3 OPENS IN NEPALGUNJ;
TO BE CONTINUED IN DANG
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2. (U) Government of Nepal (GON) and Maoist negotiators met
for a long-delayed third round of talks in the southwestern
city of Nepalgunj on August 17. Following the session, which
lasted until mid-afternoon, GON lead negotiator Finance
Minister Dr. Prakash Chandra Lohani, accompanied by his
Maoist counterpart Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, briefed the press
on their respective views on the discussion. Lohani
announced that the GON side had presented the Maoists with a
number of political reforms, which Bhattarai, in turn,
lambasted as "ridiculous" and "disappointing" because they
did not include the controversial demand for a constituent
assembly. Bhattarai also said that the Maoists "totally
disagreed" with the GON's refusal to shift control of the
Royal Nepal Army from the Palace to "the people." This
vituperation notwithstanding, the two team leaders announced
that negotiations would continue for the second consecutive
day in the southwestern district of Dang. The second session
in Dang reportedly began mid-day on August 18.

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GON PROPOSES SIGNIFICANT REFORMS
THROUGH CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT
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3. (SBU) As promised (Ref B),on August 17 the GON provided
the Embassy with a copy of the political reforms package
presented to the Maoists in Nepalgunj. (A summary of the
proposals has been faxed to SA/INS.) The document listed as
its non-negotiable "bottom line" the constitutional monarchy,
multi-party democracy, and the sovereignty of the people. It
suggested a five-step process toward reform: a) Maoists and
GON reach consensus on needed reforms through negotiation; b)
other parties are brought into the process by an all-party
round-table conference; c) an interim caretaker government,
with Maoist participation, is formed to oversee national
elections; d) elections are held; and e) the newly elected
Parliament amends the Constitution in line with the "national
consensus" developed through the four preceding steps. The
document tacitly rejects the Maoist demand for a constituent
assembly to draft a new Constitution by stating that
previously submitted Maoist proposals "seem to be achievable
through amending" the Constitution. The monarchy must be
retained as "a symbol of Nepalese nationality and national
unity" that brings together Nepalis of "various languages,
religions, ethnic groups and cultures."


4. (SBU) The document also contains several significant
proposals to address social inequities in the political
system. For example, the package suggests changing the
structure of the Upper House of Parliament, the National
Assembly, to include "the representation of ethnic groups,
indigenous peoples and Dalits in proportion to their
population," while reserving 25 percent of seats in both
nationally and locally elected bodies for women. Perhaps
most surprising, the proposals suggest a quota system for
ethnic minorities, members of the lower castes, and women
"for a certain period of time" in government, the
administrative services, and other professions like health
and education. Other proposed changes include greater
authority for local bodies, a program of land reform,
stronger constitutional guarantees for freedom of religion
and expression, a commitment to respect human rights "even in
difficult circumstances," and introduction of a system of
proportional representation. Besides political reforms, the
document also proposes the inclusion of a few key items on
the agenda for upcoming negotiations, e.g., disarming of
Maoist cadres and reconstruction of infrastructure damaged
during the insurgency. Finally, the document calls on both
sides to commit to maintaining the ceasefire.


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COMMENT
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5. (C) The GON proposals seem to us a realistic starting
point for dialogue regarding useful socio-economic reforms to
benefit the very sectors of society the Maoists claim to
champion. Sadly, Bhattarai's harsh rejection of the GON
proposals confirms what we have suspected all along--that the
Maoists are interested not in true reform but in the power
they believe they can achieve by manipulating a narrowly
based constituent assembly. The Maoists have never displayed
much relish for real negotiations that involve compromise and
concession, viewing the discussions instead as a vehicle to
publicize their own demands and maintain, through repeated
threats of a walk-out, the upper hand. The GON's unequivocal
position on its red lines--the constitutional monarchy and
multi-party democracy--has now left the Maoists little scope
for such posturing. The next few days will heighten pressure
on the rebels either to begin serious talks on an ambitious
program of political reform or to return to terrorist
violence.
MALINOWSKI