NEPAL: LAST DITCH EFFORTS TO RESUME PEACE TALKS

C O N F I D E N T I A L KATHMANDU 001418

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR SA/INS, SA/RA
LONDON FOR POL/GURNEY
NSC FOR MILLARD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/28/2013
TAGS: PGOV PTER PINS CASC NP
SUBJECT: NEPAL: LAST DITCH EFFORTS TO RESUME PEACE TALKS
LIKELY TO FAIL

REF: KATHMANDU 1413

Classified By: Ambassador Michael E. Malinowski for reasons 1.5 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) As reported in reftel, Nepal's Maoists have
established a July 31 deadline for the Government of Nepal
(GoN) to meet their conditions for a third round of peace
talks. Embassy contacts in the police concur with our
assessment that all the preconditions will not be met,
thereby seriously imperiling no just the peace dialogue but
also the cease-fire. Despite these dire predictions, the GoN
negotiating team is attempting a last ditch effort to save
the talks; the team is offering the Maoists the release of
three Central Committee Members held in Kathmandu's central
jail in exchange for talks. The offer has been forwarded to
the Maoist negotiation team through the peace talk
coordinators. A Maoist response is expected as early as
tomorrow, July 30. The GoN may also request former
government negotiator, Narayan Singh Pun, to assist in
reviving the peace talks. He is expected to return to
Kathmandu from London tomorrow.


2. (SBU) Kathmandu residents are becoming increasingly
alarmed by rumors of a Maoist offensive to strike the valley
after July 31 deadline. Police sources speculate that
elements of the Maoist People's Liberation Army are actually
mobilizing in the East and West and that any attack on
Kathmandu Valley would serve to distract the security forces.


3. (C) Comment: The GoN's last-minute efforts will fall
well short of Maoist demands. While some in the security
forces see the benefits of preemptive action against the
Maoists before the deadline, we believe it unlikely the GoN
will move to break the cease-fire. However, our concern that
the Maoists may strike before July 31 is much higher.
Security forces, while hopeful peace efforts will succeed,
continue their elevated defensive posture.
MALINOWSKI