UPDATE ON NEPAL'S MAOIST INSURGENCY, JULY 12-18

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PINS PTER CASC PGOV NP
SUBJECT: UPDATE ON NEPAL'S MAOIST INSURGENCY, JULY 12-18

SUMMARY
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1. The deadlock over peace talks between the Government of
Nepal (GON) and the Maoists remains unresolved. The GON has
increased security in many districts throughout Nepal
following reports of increased Maoist activities. The local
press reported on July 14 that Maoists are importing weapons
from points along the Nepal-India border. The GON, yielding
to Maoist demands once again, released the three remaining
Maoist Central Committee Members from prison on July 12. On
July 17 a team of security forces reportedly arrested
fourteen Maoists who were armed and carrying explosives.
Bharat Dhungana, head of the Maoists' office in Kathmandu,
alleged that he was handcuffed and held for five hours by
security forces on July 17. Maoist disregard for the code
of conduct continued, with the brazen abduction of two
unarmed Royal Nepal Army (RNA) soldiers on July 9. The
insurgents reportedly also killed a district committee
member of the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist
Leninist (CPN-UML),and abducted five other civilians,
including two youths and a police constable. End Summary.

THIRD ROUND OF TALKS REMAINS ELUSIVE
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2. The future of peace negotiations remains uncertain as
Maoist leaders still have not responded to the formal letter
from the GON inviting them to a third round of talks.
Initial reports suggested that the Maoists would issue a
response on July 17, but to date there has been no reply.
Kamal Thapa, Minister for Communication and Information and
government negotiating team member, reportedly sent a formal
letter to Baburam Bhattarai, head of the Maoist negotiating
team, on July 13. Krishna Bahadur Mahara, Maoist spokesman,
claimed on July 14 that he had no knowledge of the letter.
However, the local press reported on July 17 that Maoist
team members were meeting in the mid-western district of
Bardiya to discuss the letter. Security forces reportedly
are suspicious of the apparent "closed-door" session and
have speculated that a high command meeting was actually
being held with Prachanda, Maoist chairman, and Bhattarai
present as well. Maoist cadres in the region have denied
any knowledge of the whereabouts of the top two leaders.
(Note: Bhattarai continues to remain absent from the public
spotlight, and speculation remains that he is in India. End
Note).


3. As the fragility of the peace process becomes more
evident, concern over impending violence grows. An article
published on July 17 by a pro-monarchy weekly English
language newspaper quotes a Maoist source as saying that the
Maoists used the ceasefire to "reorganize their party," and
are now equipped with "a good stock of arms." The source
further claims that not only are Maoist leaders using India
as a safehaven, but are also receiving intelligence
information from India's external intelligence agency, the
Research and Analysis Wing (RAW).

SECURITY STEPPED UP
--------------


4. The local press reported on July 15 that the GON is
stepping up security due to what an army official called
"suspicious activities" by Maoist cadres. The unnamed
source alleged that the insurgents have dramatically
increased their movements, acquired more arms, and stepped
up extortion demands. The newspaper also quoted the army
official as saying that the Maoist leaders have gone
underground, and there was no way to "ensure that they will
return to the talks table." Armed Police Force (APF)
personnel reportedly have resumed nighttime security
patrols, and increased security checks along routes
frequented by Maoists.


5. Amid speculation over the disappearance of Baburam
Bhattarai, the GON has increased security in many of the mid-
western districts, and imposed a curfew in the mid-western
district of Dang, a Maoist stronghold and scene of a deadly
attack on an army base in 2002. The decision comes after
reports that Bhattarai allegedly used an ambulance in Dang
to facilitate the transport of arms and ammunition to
Maoists in that region.


6. A curfew imposed by security personnel in the western
district of Syangja will continue to be enforced despite
objections from residents. District officials said the
curfew is necessary in light of continued security threats.

MAOISTS TRANSPORTING ARMS
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7. The local press reported on July 14 that Maoists in the
far western district of Kailali are importing weapons from
points along the Nepal-India border. According to security
forces, the insurgents are working with the People's War
Group (PWG) and the Maoist Communist Center (MCC),Indian
extremist groups. Papers linking the insurgents to the
Indian Maoist groups reportedly were confiscated along with
weapons and ammunition.


8. Maoists in Kavre, a district east of Kathmandu,
reportedly have declared the region as a base. According to
July 11 press reports, Maoist cadres have sealed the borders
of the district and do not allow new people to enter.
Maoist cadres reportedly claim that they are preparing to
fight a "people's war" against "imperialistic forces."

MAOIST CENTRAL COMMITTEE MEMBERS RELEASED
--------------


9. In yet another concession to Maoist demands, the GON
released the three remaining Maoist Central Committee
Members from prison on July 12. Maoists had demanded the
release of all five of their Central Committee Members as a
precondition of peace talks, but previously only two had
been released. The move is an apparent effort to entice the
Maoists to return to the negotiating table for a third round
of talks.


10. On July 17 Bharat Dhungana, the Secretary of the
Maoists' office in Kathmandu, alleged that he was
handcuffed, blindfolded and held for five hours by security
forces. Dhungana claims that five people in civilian
clothes questioned him on the whereabouts of senior Maoist
leaders, on their plans regarding participation in a third
round of talks, and extortion demands by the insurgents.
Dhungana said his "arrest" would hinder the return of Maoist
leaders to the capital as they would be unsure of their own
security. On that same day, a team of security forces
reportedly arrested fourteen armed Maoists, including four
women, in Dolakha District while on routine patrol.
Security forces confiscated explosives from the insurgents
and militia uniforms.


11. On July 15 fourteen Maoist cadres were released from
detention in Panchthar District.

MAOISTS ABDUCT RNA SOLDIERS;
VIOLATIONS CONTINUE TO RISE
--------------


12. Two unarmed RNA soldiers reportedly were abducted by
Maoists on July 9 in Makwanpur District. The Defense
Ministry condemned the Maoists' action as "inhuman
irresponsible behavior," and has demanded the immediate
release of the soldiers.


13. A group of Maoists reportedly killed a district
committee member of the Communist Party of Nepal-United
Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML) on July 15 in Butwal District.
The activist was returning home when the insurgents
allegedly stabbed him to death.


14. Maoists reportedly abducted two youths on July 12 in
Makwanpur District. The youths were tied up and taken to an
undisclosed location. On July 13 the registrar of the
District Soil Conservation Office in Gulmi District was
abducted by insurgents. On that same day in Jajarkot
District, Maoists abducted a police constable and a Village
Development Committee (VDC) secretary. Both men remain
missing.


15. Two powerful pipe bombs were found on the ground floor
of a court in Siraha District on July 15. The bombs are
similar to those normally planted by Maoist insurgents
during the insurgency, although no one has claimed
responsibility.


16. Citizenship certificates distributed during RNA health
camps, which Krishna Bahadur Mahara, Maoist spokesman,
publicly condemned on July 14 as a ploy to disrupt talks,
have been confiscated by Maoists in Banke District. The
insurgents, who have attempted to disrupt the health camps
numerous times in the past, confiscated the cards after the
RNA team departed.

MALINOWSKI