NEPALI CONGRESS SAID TO BE JOINING NEW GOVERNMENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KATHMANDU 001060

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SA/INS
LONDON FOR POL - GURNEY
NSC FOR MILLARD
SECDEF FOR OSD/ISA/NESA - TAYLOR

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2013
TAGS: PGOV NP
SUBJECT: NEPALI CONGRESS SAID TO BE JOINING NEW GOVERNMENT

REF: KATHMANDU 1011

Classified By: CDA ROBERT K. BOGGS. REASON: 1.5 (B,D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) The Nepali Congress will likely join a Cabinet
headed by new Prime Minister Surya Bahadur Thapa, according
to a party Central Committee member, primarily because of
Indian pressure. If the Nepali Congress joins, the Communist
Party of Nepal - United Marxist Leninist (UML) will have to
overcome its disgruntlement and join, or risk being left out
in the cold, the source said. Nepali Congress Party
President G.P. Koirala has begun tempering his public
statements, noting his party might join the Thapa government
if the new Prime Minister commits to reinstating Parliament.
The Maoists, meanwhile, likely alarmed at the suggested
rapprochement between the Palace and the mainstream parties,
continue to try to discredit Thapa's appointment by claiming
it was motivated by foreign pressure. End summary.

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IF THE NEPALI CONGRESS JOINS,
CAN THE UML BE FAR BEHIND?
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2. (U) As of COB on June 9, newly appointed Prime Minister
Surya Bahadur Thapa had still not announced any members of
the new Cabinet. The local weekend press gave prominent
coverage to his efforts to coax such participation from the
two largest parties, the Communist Party of Nepal - United
Marxist Leninist (UML) and the Nepali Congress, as well as
the splinter Nepali Congress (Democratic),led by former PM
Sher Bahadur Deuba. The party leaders' public statements
since Thapa's appointment on June 4 reiterate their
disinclination to join his government, although Nepali
Congress Party President G.P. Koirala told the press on June
7 that his party would "support" the new PM if he reinstates
Parliament or sets a date for new elections.


3. (C) On June 7 Nepali Congress Central Committee member
Ram Thapaliya told poloff that he believes that his party
will join the Cabinet within a week or two. Thapaliya
pointed to Indian support for Thapa and Indian pressure on
Koirala to cooperate as the decisive factors. Koirala had
given only nominal support to UML General Secretary Madhav
Nepal as the consensus candidate for Prime Minister (Reftel)
because Koirala was fairly certain that his long-time rival's
candidacy, which was opposed by the Palace, the Maoists, and
the Indians, never had a chance of succeeding, Thapaliya
indicated. Koirala will be unable to withstand Indian
pressure to join the Cabinet, Thapaliya predicted, but will
likely exact some assurance that the new PM will reinstate
Parliament in return. If the Nepali Congress joins the
government, the UML, rather than being left out in the cold,
will have to swallow its disgruntlement at not gaining the
top post and join as well, he predicted. Although public
posturing against Thapa's appointment will persist for "a
week or two" for face-saving purposes, ultimately the PM will
succeed in broadening his Cabinet, Thapaliya concluded.


4. (U) The public posturing seems likely to continue in the
near term. The five parties already have announced the next
phase of their "joint agitation" against "royal regression,"
including a protest at tax offices on June 10, youth rallies
in assorted districts on June 13, and a nationwide women's
rally on June 18.

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MAOIST SHRILLNESS ON "FOREIGN
HAND" INTENSIFIES
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5. (U) Maoist rhetoric decrying Thapa's appointment as the
result of foreign--including US--interference continues
unabated. The insurgents have offered to join the five-party
"joint agitation" specifically to denounce "foreign
intervention" in Nepal--a theme the five parties so far have
not echoed. Speaking at a rally in the mid-western district
of Palpa on June 7, Ram Bahadur Thapa (a.k.a. "Badal"),the
Maoist military commander, said that his party is reviewing
"how we can launch a movement together" with the five
parties. On June 8 the Maoist-aligned All Nepal National
Independent Student Union - Revolutionary (ANNISU-R)
announced that it will support the indefinite strike against
educational institutions, set to commence on June 15, called
by seven other student unions aligned with the mainstream
political parties.


6. (U) Also on June 8 the "National People's Agitation
Committee" released a press statement blaming the
"involvement of Americans, Indians and other imperialist
powers" for obstructing progress in the peace talks and
criticizing "the appointment of Surya Bahadur Thapa as the
prime minister under the instruction of foreign forces." The
Committee's press statement announced its decision to seek
"joint agitation" to "create pressure from the people" to
make "the regressive forces bow down."

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Indian influence in Nepal's domestic politics in
general and the current scenario in particular is taken as an
article of faith among a wide range of our interlocutors.
Indian influence is believed to be particularly strong in the
Nepali Congress Party, which has benefited from covert Indian
financial and political support for decades. Koirala's
recent public statements indicating a softer stance--if the
new PM agrees to reinstate Parliament or at least schedule
elections--may well be the result of some of that influence
being brought to bear. The Maoists may perceive that Thapa's
appointment may array the mainstream political forces against
them. Hence their increasingly strident rhetoricical
attempts to discredit Thapa as a tool of "foreign
intervention." There is no evidence thus far that their
anti-American pitch is resonating, either with the political
parties or the general public, who largely perceive
(correctly, we believe) that Indian support was crucial to
Thapa's appointment.
BOGGS