Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03JAKARTA5111
2003-05-09 13:45:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Jakarta
Cable title:
ACEH: YUDHOYONO HOPES FOR "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD"
how-toO 091345Z MAY 03 FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3829 INFO ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS PRIORITY AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY AMEMBASSY OSLO PRIORITY AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM PRIORITY AMEMBASSY THE HAGUE PRIORITY AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY AMEMBASSY ATHENS PRIORITY NSC WASHDC PRIORITY SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI PRIORITY USMISSION GENEVA PRIORITY USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 005111
NSC FOR HADLEY, MORIARTY, BROOKS
STATE FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY, EAP
SECDEF FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY WOLFOWITZ
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2013
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV ID
SUBJECT: ACEH: YUDHOYONO HOPES FOR "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD"
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 005111
NSC FOR HADLEY, MORIARTY, BROOKS
STATE FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY, EAP
SECDEF FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY WOLFOWITZ
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2013
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV ID
SUBJECT: ACEH: YUDHOYONO HOPES FOR "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD"
1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TED LYNG FOR REASONS
1.5 (B) AND (D).
2. (C) SUMMARY. MINISTER YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR MAY 9
THAT HE HOPED FOR THE "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD" TO SAVE THE
ACEH PEACE PROCESS. YUDHOYONO SAID THE WINDOW IS STILL OPEN
FOR DIALOGUE AND HE PRAYS FOR A BREAKTHROUGH. THE AMBASSADOR
LOBBIED YUDHOYONO TO POSTPONE THE WITHDRAWAL OF INTERNATIONAL
MONITORS AND TO RECONSIDER THE ARREST OF THREE GAM JOINT
SECURITY COMMITTEE (JSC) NEGOTIATORS. YUDHOYONO'S REMARKS
ARE ENCOURAGING BUT, SHORT OF GAM'S CAPITULATION, WE VIEW A
RENEWED MILITARY OFFENSIVE AS NEARLY INEVITABLE. END SUMMARY.
HAND OF GOD?
--------------
3. (C) COORDINATING MINISTER FOR POLITICAL AND SECURITY
AFFAIRS SUSILO BAMBANG YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR MAY 9
THAT HE HOPED FOR "AN INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD" TO SAVE THE ACEH
PEACE PROCESS. YUDHOYONO SAID THAT THE WINDOW FOR A
NEGOTIATED SOLUTION REMAINED OPEN. HE NOTED THAT PRESIDENT
MEGAWATI HAD ENDORSED THE EFFORT OF A GROUP OF ACEHNESE
PARLIAMENTARIANS TO LOBBY GAM TO BE FLEXIBLE. YUDHOYONO
INFERRED FROM THE PRESIDENT'S ENDORSEMENT OF THIS EFFORT THAT
THERE WAS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT RENEWED MILITARY
OPERATIONS COULD BE AVOIDED. YUDHOYONO SAID HE PRAYED FOR A
BREAKTHROUGH.
YUDHOYONO PUSHES ZINNI MISSION
--------------
4. (C) YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT HE HAD PRAISED THE
ZINNI MISSION TO STOCKHOLM WITH PRESIDENT MEGAWATI. HE WENT
ON TO TELL HER THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE U.S., JAPAN AND EU
HAVE "ALWAYS BEEN THERE FOR INDONESIA." HE DID NOT DESCRIBE
MEGAWATI'S REACTION.
AMBASSADOR PRESSES ON WITHDRAWAL, ARRESTS
--------------
5. (C) THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THE CONFLICTING SIGNALS THAT THE
CENTRE FOR HUMANITARIAN DIALOGUE (HDC),WHICH HAS BEEN
BROKERING THE ACEH PEACE AGREEMENT, WAS RECEIVING ABOUT THE
WITHDRAWAL OF JSC INTERNATIONAL MONITORS. YUDHOYONO SAID HIS
OFFICE WAS PREPARING A LETTER INSTRUCTING HDC TO WITHDRAW ALL
INTERNATIONAL STAFF ON SUNDAY, MAY 11. THE AMBASSADOR
PRESSED YUDHOYONO TO POSTPONE THE WITHDRAWAL UNTIL THE
RESULTS OF THE ZINNI MISSION COULD BE ABSORBED, STRESSING
THAT EVEN THE GOI'S OWN DEADLINE EXTENDED UNTIL MAY 12.
YUDHOYONO REPLIED THAT THE AMBASSADOR'S REQUEST SEEMED QUITE
REASONABLE AND PROMISED TO SEE WHAT COULD BE DONE TO
ACCOMMODATE IT. YUDHOYONO ADDED THAT HDC STAFF NOT PART OF
THE FORMAL JSC STRUCTURE COULD STAY "FOR A FEW DAYS" OR MAYBE
LONGER. (NOTE: WE LATER RECEIVED A REPORT THAT YUDHOYONO'S
OFFICE IN FACT SENT THE LETTER INSTRUCTING HDC TO WITHDRAW ON
SUNDAY. AS OF 1930 THE SITUATION WAS STILL UNCLEAR. END
NOTE.)
6. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED THE COORDINATING MINISTER IF HE
WAS AWARE OF THE MAY 9 ARRESTS OF THREE OF FIVE GAM
REPRESENTATIVES TO THE JSC'S BANDA ACEH HEADQUARTERS, TEUNGKU
KAMARRUZAMAN, AMRI, AND AMNI. YUDHOYONO ACKNOWLEDGED THE
ARRESTS AND NOTED THAT THE THREE MAY HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO
DEPART INDONESIA WITHOUT THE PROPER DOCUMENTATION. THE
AMBASSADOR REMINDED YUDHOYONO THAT THE COHA REMAINED IN
EFFECT AND THAT DETAINING THE THREE WOULD SEND A NEGATIVE
SIGNAL TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. THE AMBASSADOR URGED
THE GOI TO RELEASE THREE ARRESTED GAM MEMBERS. YUDHOYONO
SAID THAT HE WOULD LOOK INTO THE MATTER AND ENSURE THE THREE
WERE TREATED STRICTLY ACCORDING TO LAW.
COMMENT: DIVINE INTERVENTION?
--------------
7. (C) THOUGH YUDHOYONO'S PRAYERS FOR DIVINE INTERVENTION ARE
HEARTWARMING AND NO DOUBT GENUINE, THIS MAY BE A CASE OF
ACEH'S BEING TOO FAR FROM GOD AND TOO CLOSE TO INDONESIA. WE
STILL REGARD A MILITARY OFFENSIVE AS NEARLY INEVITABLE. ONLY
A DRAMATIC GESTURE BY THE GAM TO ACCEPT SPECIAL AUTONOMY AND
TURN IN ITS WEAPONS ON JAKARTA'S TERMS, WHICH APPEARS
UNLIKELY, COULD FORESTALL THE GOI'S RETURN TO A MILITARY
OPERATION IN ACEH. THAT BEING SAID, WHEN THE STAKES ARE THIS
HIGH, LONG SHOTS ARE WORTH PURSUING, ESPECIALLY IF HEAVEN MAY
LEND A HAND.
BOYCE
NSC FOR HADLEY, MORIARTY, BROOKS
STATE FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY, EAP
SECDEF FOR DEPUTY SECRETARY WOLFOWITZ
E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2013
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV ID
SUBJECT: ACEH: YUDHOYONO HOPES FOR "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD"
1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY POLITICAL OFFICER TED LYNG FOR REASONS
1.5 (B) AND (D).
2. (C) SUMMARY. MINISTER YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR MAY 9
THAT HE HOPED FOR THE "INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD" TO SAVE THE
ACEH PEACE PROCESS. YUDHOYONO SAID THE WINDOW IS STILL OPEN
FOR DIALOGUE AND HE PRAYS FOR A BREAKTHROUGH. THE AMBASSADOR
LOBBIED YUDHOYONO TO POSTPONE THE WITHDRAWAL OF INTERNATIONAL
MONITORS AND TO RECONSIDER THE ARREST OF THREE GAM JOINT
SECURITY COMMITTEE (JSC) NEGOTIATORS. YUDHOYONO'S REMARKS
ARE ENCOURAGING BUT, SHORT OF GAM'S CAPITULATION, WE VIEW A
RENEWED MILITARY OFFENSIVE AS NEARLY INEVITABLE. END SUMMARY.
HAND OF GOD?
--------------
3. (C) COORDINATING MINISTER FOR POLITICAL AND SECURITY
AFFAIRS SUSILO BAMBANG YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR MAY 9
THAT HE HOPED FOR "AN INVISIBLE HAND OF GOD" TO SAVE THE ACEH
PEACE PROCESS. YUDHOYONO SAID THAT THE WINDOW FOR A
NEGOTIATED SOLUTION REMAINED OPEN. HE NOTED THAT PRESIDENT
MEGAWATI HAD ENDORSED THE EFFORT OF A GROUP OF ACEHNESE
PARLIAMENTARIANS TO LOBBY GAM TO BE FLEXIBLE. YUDHOYONO
INFERRED FROM THE PRESIDENT'S ENDORSEMENT OF THIS EFFORT THAT
THERE WAS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT RENEWED MILITARY
OPERATIONS COULD BE AVOIDED. YUDHOYONO SAID HE PRAYED FOR A
BREAKTHROUGH.
YUDHOYONO PUSHES ZINNI MISSION
--------------
4. (C) YUDHOYONO TOLD THE AMBASSADOR THAT HE HAD PRAISED THE
ZINNI MISSION TO STOCKHOLM WITH PRESIDENT MEGAWATI. HE WENT
ON TO TELL HER THE AMBASSADOR THAT THE U.S., JAPAN AND EU
HAVE "ALWAYS BEEN THERE FOR INDONESIA." HE DID NOT DESCRIBE
MEGAWATI'S REACTION.
AMBASSADOR PRESSES ON WITHDRAWAL, ARRESTS
--------------
5. (C) THE AMBASSADOR NOTED THE CONFLICTING SIGNALS THAT THE
CENTRE FOR HUMANITARIAN DIALOGUE (HDC),WHICH HAS BEEN
BROKERING THE ACEH PEACE AGREEMENT, WAS RECEIVING ABOUT THE
WITHDRAWAL OF JSC INTERNATIONAL MONITORS. YUDHOYONO SAID HIS
OFFICE WAS PREPARING A LETTER INSTRUCTING HDC TO WITHDRAW ALL
INTERNATIONAL STAFF ON SUNDAY, MAY 11. THE AMBASSADOR
PRESSED YUDHOYONO TO POSTPONE THE WITHDRAWAL UNTIL THE
RESULTS OF THE ZINNI MISSION COULD BE ABSORBED, STRESSING
THAT EVEN THE GOI'S OWN DEADLINE EXTENDED UNTIL MAY 12.
YUDHOYONO REPLIED THAT THE AMBASSADOR'S REQUEST SEEMED QUITE
REASONABLE AND PROMISED TO SEE WHAT COULD BE DONE TO
ACCOMMODATE IT. YUDHOYONO ADDED THAT HDC STAFF NOT PART OF
THE FORMAL JSC STRUCTURE COULD STAY "FOR A FEW DAYS" OR MAYBE
LONGER. (NOTE: WE LATER RECEIVED A REPORT THAT YUDHOYONO'S
OFFICE IN FACT SENT THE LETTER INSTRUCTING HDC TO WITHDRAW ON
SUNDAY. AS OF 1930 THE SITUATION WAS STILL UNCLEAR. END
NOTE.)
6. (C) THE AMBASSADOR ASKED THE COORDINATING MINISTER IF HE
WAS AWARE OF THE MAY 9 ARRESTS OF THREE OF FIVE GAM
REPRESENTATIVES TO THE JSC'S BANDA ACEH HEADQUARTERS, TEUNGKU
KAMARRUZAMAN, AMRI, AND AMNI. YUDHOYONO ACKNOWLEDGED THE
ARRESTS AND NOTED THAT THE THREE MAY HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING TO
DEPART INDONESIA WITHOUT THE PROPER DOCUMENTATION. THE
AMBASSADOR REMINDED YUDHOYONO THAT THE COHA REMAINED IN
EFFECT AND THAT DETAINING THE THREE WOULD SEND A NEGATIVE
SIGNAL TO THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY. THE AMBASSADOR URGED
THE GOI TO RELEASE THREE ARRESTED GAM MEMBERS. YUDHOYONO
SAID THAT HE WOULD LOOK INTO THE MATTER AND ENSURE THE THREE
WERE TREATED STRICTLY ACCORDING TO LAW.
COMMENT: DIVINE INTERVENTION?
--------------
7. (C) THOUGH YUDHOYONO'S PRAYERS FOR DIVINE INTERVENTION ARE
HEARTWARMING AND NO DOUBT GENUINE, THIS MAY BE A CASE OF
ACEH'S BEING TOO FAR FROM GOD AND TOO CLOSE TO INDONESIA. WE
STILL REGARD A MILITARY OFFENSIVE AS NEARLY INEVITABLE. ONLY
A DRAMATIC GESTURE BY THE GAM TO ACCEPT SPECIAL AUTONOMY AND
TURN IN ITS WEAPONS ON JAKARTA'S TERMS, WHICH APPEARS
UNLIKELY, COULD FORESTALL THE GOI'S RETURN TO A MILITARY
OPERATION IN ACEH. THAT BEING SAID, WHEN THE STAKES ARE THIS
HIGH, LONG SHOTS ARE WORTH PURSUING, ESPECIALLY IF HEAVEN MAY
LEND A HAND.
BOYCE