TURKEY: A NEW FRONT FOR INTERNATIONAL TERROR

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISTANBUL 001760

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/20/2013
TAGS: PTER PREL PGOV ASEC TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY: A NEW FRONT FOR INTERNATIONAL TERROR

REF: A) ISTANBUL 1703 & 1711 B) ISTANBUL 1744 & 1752


Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.5 (b & d)



1. (U) Summary: Istanbul is slowly recovering from the shock
of two separate sets of terrorist bombings that claimed over
50 lives and wounded 750 in one week. Although both the
synagogue bombings (ref a) and the latest bombings of the
British Consulate and HSBC Turkey headquarters (ref b) appear
to have had specific targets, there is little doubt among
public opinion that Turkey has become a new front for the war
against international terror. Even as investigators continue
their search for the perpetrators and their accomplices,
there is widespread speculation regarding the possible
motives, targets, and messages of the attacks. Despite some
calls for disassociating Turkey from U.S. policies in Iraq
and Israel, the attacks do not appear to have changed
people's minds, but only to have reinforced what people
already believed. End Summary.



2. (U) Who dunnit?: Public reaction to the attacks has moved
from shock to anger. The thrust of the anger appears to be
directed at a faceless, nebulous terrorist threat. Most
accept official government statements that the attacks were
carried out by Turkish citizens linked to extreme Islamic
groups like IBDA-C (the Great Islamic Eastern Anatolian
Raiders) and Hizbollah (an indigenous Turkish group,
reportedly sponsored by Iran). A majority also believe that
these groups probably had some support from the Al-Qaeda
international terrorist network. On the other hand, there is
a minority that questions whether Turks, or at least
Islamists, were involved at all. Some believe instead that
the terrorists may have been secretly funded and supported by
the U.S. or Israel in an effort to poison Turkey against
radical Islamic groups (this viewpoint has also been
articulated by several television commentators and printed in
the local Islamic press). Asked whether such a conspiracy
theory seems a little far-fetched, a shopkeeper and barber
separately told poloff cryptically that "anything is possible
in politics."



3. (U) Why?: Among those who accept the apparent links with
international terrorism, there is still widespread
disagreement over what motivated the bombers. Were the
attacks designed to send a message to Israel, the U.K. and
the U.S.? Or, were they aimed at Turkey for supporting those
governments and designed to destabilize Turkey's secular
democracy? This debate is likely to continue for some time.
Protestors at a "peace rally" over the weekend reflected the
diversity of opinions, with some calling for cutting ties
with the U.S. and others calling for greater international
cooperation against terrorism. Our sense from our contacts
here is that neither Turkey's democracy nor its relationship
with the U.S. is directly threatened in the wake of these
attacks.



4. (U) What now?: Hotels and shopkeepers are already
lamenting the negative impact that these attacks have had on
one of the city's economic mainstays: tourism. Shopkeepers
in the Grand Bazaar remarked that the flow of visiting
tourists had slowed to a trickle since the attacks. The Four
Seasons and other five-star hotels have already had numerous
cancellations. Most Turks here now anticipate, moreover,
that with these attacks some sort of invisible line seems to
have been crossed by international terrorists and that there
will be more such attacks in the future. Consequently, they
are supportive of the government's intentions and efforts to
investigate, apprehend, and prosecute the perpetrators as
quickly and efficiently as possible. Asked by poloff what
Turkey should do now, a taxi driver shrugged and said that
Turkey "must continue to work with other countries in the
struggle against international terrorism."



5. (C) Comment: Reaction to the attacks is still settling in,
but like Americans after September 11, many here see that
their world has changed and wonder what will happen next.
This reflectiveness does not characterize everyone, of
course: those who were previously anti-American and did not
believe that al-Queda carried out the September 11 attacks
have not abandoned their views, but now want to see a U.S.
hand either directly or indirectly causing the attack on
Turkey. But the mainstream of the population, including the
Government and Security Services, seems to recognize the
international cooperation is essential to fight this scourge
and that Turkey's western democratic orientation must
continue.
ARNETT