Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03ISTANBUL1409
2003-09-24 05:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Istanbul
Cable title:  

ISTANBUL REPUBLICAN PEOPLE'S PARTY: HOPING FOR

Tags:  PGOV PREL TU 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001409 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: ISTANBUL REPUBLICAN PEOPLE'S PARTY: HOPING FOR
ELECTORAL FAILURE?


REF: A. A. ISTANBUL 1231

B. B. ANKARA 4862

C. C. ISTANBUL 1348


Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.5 (b & d)


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ISTANBUL 001409

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL TU
SUBJECT: ISTANBUL REPUBLICAN PEOPLE'S PARTY: HOPING FOR
ELECTORAL FAILURE?


REF: A. A. ISTANBUL 1231

B. B. ANKARA 4862

C. C. ISTANBUL 1348


Classified By: Consul General David Arnett for Reasons 1.5 (b & d)



1. (C) Summary: Istanbul Republican People's Party (CHP)
contacts report widespread internal discontent with CHP
Chairman Baykal and the CHP's performance over the last
several months. Although Baykal has successfully taken firm
control of the Istanbul party organization, the party has so
far been unable to put forward any candidates for Istanbul
City Hall that promise to mobilize and reinforce their
eroding support base. Resigned over their party's inability
to increase its public support, our contacts openly admit
that they expect a CHP failure at the polls in next spring's
local elections to open the way for internal change within
the party.


Baykal Strengthens Hold on Istanbul Organization
-------------- ---

2. (C) Istanbul has long been a major battleground within the
CHP organization, and this year's Istanbul Congress was
further confirmation of that fact (ref A). In the face of
opposition and criticism, Baykal made a strong push to ensure
that his people dominated the delegate list that Istanbul
will send to the National Congress and would continue to
control the Istanbul organization. Mehmet Boluk, a former
Istanbul Chairman and the principal challenger to Baykal's
candidate in the August 3 Congress, argued that the party is
losing its base on the left and has not been sufficiently
vocal in opposition. Although Boluk's challenge failed, he
told poloff that "most" of the party faithful are "unhappy"
with Baykal, but are keeping their opposition quiet until
next spring's local elections. Once the elections are over,
Boluk predicted a sea change within the party ranks. (Note:
Boluk has also filed a court case alleging that Baykal
illegally stacked the August 3 Istanbul Congress with
supporters by falsifying local residency documents.)


The Big Prize: Istanbul Mayoralty
--------------

3. (C) None of our CHP interlocutors expect major
developments at the upcoming CHP Congress (see also ref B),
with all eyes focused instead on next spring's municipal
elections. Most agree that the Justice and Development (AK)

Party commands significantly more local support than CHP, and
that the electoral math leaves CHP with only a narrow
opportunity to take the Mayoralty (note: this would require a
split among potential AKP supporters between
still-independent Istanbul Mayor Ali Mufit Gurtuna and an
unnamed AKP candidate). Local CHP insiders Boluk and Sisli
District Mayor Mustafa Sarigul were somewhat defeatist about
CHP's electoral prospects and even eager to use a failure
(defined as anything less than the 19 percent CHP polled
nationally last year) to bring about internal change in the
party.



4. (C) Sarigul said that although he had been approached
about running for the Istanbul Mayoralty (note: he is widely
considered one of CHP's best potential candidates),he has
since decided that his chances of winning do not justify a
decision to run. Former State Minister and Istanbul MP Kemal
Dervis' name continues to be floated, but close confidante
and fellow Istanbul MP Damla Gurel downplayed that
likelihood. Former Foreign Minister and current New Turkey
Party (YTP) Chairman Ismail Cem has also been mentioned as a
possible candidate (in the unlikely event that CHP and YTP
could cement a pre-election alliance),but few take that
prospect seriously.


Failure in 2004 = Chance for Change?
--------------

5. (C) Assessing CHP's performance as the country's only
opposition party since last year's elections, former Istanbul
Chairman Mehmet Boluk said that this must be one of the only
parties in recent history to "lose public support while in
opposition." Istanbul MP Damla Gurel (a newcomer to CHP who
joined the party last year with former State Minister Kemal
Dervis) admitted candidly to poloff that "most party members
are unhappy." Professing to have good personal relations
with Baykal, Gurel nevertheless criticized him for not
promoting party teamwork, for failing to "follow through" on
commitments, and for a total inability to "communicate" his
vision and plans both within the party and to the general
public.



6. (C) Sisli Mayor Sarigul also criticized Baykal and the CHP
leadership, particularly for failing to challenge AKP by
appealing directly to the voters. Rather than criticize
AKP's plans for a property amnesty and sale of forest lands,
for example, Sarigul argues that CHP should have embraced the
proposal and taken it even further (see also ref C). We are
supposed to be the social democrats, but we are doing nothing
to reach out to the people who need us, Sarigul complained.
(Note: Boasting of having received the largest number of
votes among all of the Istanbul delegates to the National
Congress, Sarigul clearly sees himself as a potential future
leader of the party).



7. (C) Former CHP Chairman Altan Oymen (who was defeated by
Baykal when he returned to the party chairmanship in 2001)
was more supportive of Baykal and his performance, but
conceded that CHP had failed to increase its support among
the general public. Oymen attributed this to the party's
failure to bring together the other left and center-left
parties, many of which are dominated by former CHP members.
Gurel, Sarigul, and Oymen all agreed that anything less than
19 percent of the vote in the upcoming elections would
trigger an internal movement for change within the party.
Asked how such change would materialize in a party that is
tightly controlled by the chairman, Sarigul and Oymen
separately explained that an electoral failure would prompt
discussions and debate in the party ranks and would embolden
other power brokers to push for change (perhaps Baykal
himself would resign, Oymen added).


ARNETT