TWO BY-ELECTIONS CRITICAL TO ZANU-PF PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000636

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
PARIS FOR C. NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ASEC ZI ZANU PF
SUBJECT: TWO BY-ELECTIONS CRITICAL TO ZANU-PF PRESIDENTIAL
SUCCESSION PLANNING

REF: A. HARARE 322

B. HARARE 159

C. HARARE 151

Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d

Summary:
--------------


1. (C) Upcoming parliamentary by-elections pit the MDC's
National Youth Chairman, Nelson Chamisa, against ZANU-PF
businessman David Mutasa in Kuwadzana, and MDC businessman
Pearson Mungofa against ZANU-PF heavy Joseph Chinotimba. The
pre-election period has been marred by violence perpetrated
mostly by members of the ruling party, and an estimated
19,000 voters have been added to the rolls in the two
constituencies. Given the importance of the two seats to
ZANU-PF in its bid to regain a two-thirds parliamentary
majority, and the tactics it has employed thus far, we fully
expect a ZANU-PF sweep of these two MDC strongholds. End
Summary.

The Candidates
--------------


2. (C) The upcoming parliamentary by elections on March 29 -
30 in two Harare high-density suburbs pit the MDC's National
Youth Chairman, Nelson Chamisa, against ZANU-PF businessman
David Mutasa in Kuwadzana, and MDC businessman Pearson
Mungofa against ZANU-PF heavy (and intellectual flyweight)
Joseph Chinotimba. Chamisa is the charismatic MDC national
youth leader, who has pressed for a more confrontational but
peaceful approach to the regime. David Mutasa is an
established Kuwadzana businessman / grain miller, who is
licensed to distribute maize, which he has done repeatedly to
ZANU-PF cardholders since the by-election was announced in
January. Mutasa told Poloff on March 25 that it was "a fact"
that he had already won the seat. Mungofa, the MDC candidate
for Highfield, owns a diamond cutting firm and stationery
supply house; he is an ex-ZAPU member, who lost a
parliamentary election bid for Hwedza in 2000. War Veteran
Chinotimba was the self-described leader of the farm and
factory invasions and the right-hand man of the late war vet
leader, Hitler Hunzvi.

The Carrot
--------------


3. (C) Even before the dates for the by-elections were
announced in January, the independent press reported that the
Grain Marketing Board (GMB) was distributing maize in
Highfield and Kuwadzana only to ZANU-PF cardholders. For
most of the campaign period, Mutasa reportedly distributed
maize at the controlled low price to ZANU-PF cardholders
only. According to ZANU-PF supporters at a March 25 rally
attended by Poloff, the message was clear--Mutasa's provision
of maize demonstrates that he is taking care of us.

The Stick
--------------


4. (C) The pre-election period in Kuwadzana and Highfield has
been marred by violence perpetrated predominately on members
of the opposition by ruling party supporters. National Youth
Service members ("green bombers") deployed months in advance
have operated out of ZANU-PF offices and public buildings, to
beat and harass dozens of MDC supporters, including some MDC
MPs, and the leadership of the USAID-funded Combined Harare
Residents' Association (CHRA). Agents of the Central
Intelligence Organization and police officers have also been
implicated in violence (Ref B). On March 27, Polchief
witnessed the stoning of a vehicle carrying the MDC
candidate's campaign manager.


5. (C) Of four rallies that the MDC scheduled for Kuwadzana,
only one took place without disruption. On March 16, when
ZANU-PF supporters tried to prevent an MDC rally from taking
place, and tensions rose, the police fired tear gas and live
ammunition into the air. In the ensuing melee the car in
which MDC candidate Chamisa was riding, overturned and struck
a pedestrian, killing her. ZANU-PF rallies have come off
almost daily without serious incident, save for people
jockeying in queues for maize handouts.

Extra Voters
--------------


6. (C) Despite numerous attempts to acquire copies of the
voters' rolls, the MDC was able to obtain them less than a
week before the elections after a High Court judge ordered
the Registrar-General to produce the rolls. According to a
preliminary MDC audit of the lists, there are 8,000
additional voters on the Kuwadzana roll, and 11,000
additional voters on the Highfield roll, as compared to the
rolls for the March 2002 presidential election. In addition,
the opposition party has found that many names have been
changed slightly--which would prevent those individuals from
voting--or stricken from the list altogether. While a
complete audit has been impossible in the limited time
between the release of the rolls and the polling days, MDC
officials have traveled door-to-door and confirmed that many
of the added voters were unknown at the residence addresses
provided, raising serious concern that large numbers of ghost
voters have been added.

Other Irregularities
--------------


7. (C) The MDC has also charged that the GOZ has delivered
large supplies of maize and sugar to the constituencies and
intends to sell these at the very low controlled prices on
the voting days at locations distant from the polling places
in an attempt to lure ordinary voters away from voting.
Another well-placed source has reported that residents in the
rural areas of Mount Darwin, Mutoko and Magunji have been
told by their village heads to be ready to travel to
Kuwadzana and Highfield in Harare to vote in the
by-elections.


8. (C) Officials of the government-appointed Electoral
Supervisory Commission (ESC) said they have been traveling
door-to-door in the constituencies explaining to residents
how, if they cannot read, they can vote anyway. The adult
literacy rate is 88 percent in Zimbabwe. Feigning illiteracy
has been encouraged by the ruling party as a way to allow
government polling officials to cast votes for the ruling
party on a voter's behalf.

Comment: Likely Outcomes
--------------


9. (C) The GOZ appears determined to regain a two-thirds
parliamentary majority in order to pass a constitutional
amendment allowing President Mugabe to appoint his successor.
We predict, therefore, that although the MDC won these
constituencies by huge margins in the 2000 parliamentary
elections and the 2002 presidential election, ZANU-PF will
undertake the necessary electoral manipulation to win both
seats this time around. Announcement of ZANU-PF victories in
the MDC strongholds on March 31--the day the results are
expected and the expiration of the MDC ultimatum to the
GOZ--could be a recipe for unrest. If the ruling party wins
Kuwadzana and Highfield and employs similar tactics in two
other by-elections to be held soon--Harare Central and
Zengeza--the ruling party would be one seat away from
regaining the two-thirds parliamentary majority. As the
ruling party has demonstrated on numerous occasions in the
past, it is prepared to use tactics necessary to force
by-elections in a MDC-held constituencies and to "win" these
seats. End Comment.
SULLIVAN