Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03HARARE546
2003-03-17 17:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

MDC MASS ACTION IMMINENT

Tags:  PGOV ASEC ZI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000546 

SIPDIS

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PARIS FOR CNEARY
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2013
TAGS: PGOV ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: MDC MASS ACTION IMMINENT

REF: HARARE 516

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (
B) AND (D).


MDC finally calls for mass action
----------------------------------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000546

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR CGURNEY
PARIS FOR CNEARY
NAIROBI FOR PFLAUMER
NSC FOR JENDAYI FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/17/2013
TAGS: PGOV ASEC ZI
SUBJECT: MDC MASS ACTION IMMINENT

REF: HARARE 516

Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MATT HARRINGTON. REASONS: 1.5 (
B) AND (D).


MDC finally calls for mass action
--------------


1. (C) After a year of careful planning, the opposition
Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) has, for the first time
since the flawed 2002 presidential election, issued a public
call for Zimbabweans to participate in mass action, beginning
on March 18 and 19. In full-page advertisements carried in
the independent newspapers, the MDC calls for "peaceful
action carefully calculated to express discontent and disgust
with the state of affairs within our nation...We must take up
the challenge and engage in the most visible form of
democratic resistance until our rights, freedoms, and dignity
and the right to live in peace are won back." The party has
gotten the message out in a number of ways, including via
special mass action structures established in most of the
country's urban centers and distribution of large numbers of
pamphlets. In a March 15 interview with the independent
weekly, "The Standard," MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai
confirmed that mass action had been called for March 18 and
19, but he declined to be drawn on what forms it would take.

Possibility of violence
--------------


2. (C) Concerned by reports that some elements of the MDC
were planning violent attacks against security service
installations (reftel),the Ambassador urged restraint in a
March 17 meeting with Tsvangirai. The Ambassador told the
MDC leader that the U.S. Government supported the right of
the MDC and civil society to engage in peaceful forms of
mass action but counseled strongly against violent
confrontation. Such an approach would take away any claim
the MDC had to the moral high ground and give the GOZ an
excuse to crush the opposition. Tsvangirai agreed, said the
party was encouraging only peaceful activities and that the
first phase to begin on March 18 was a work stayaway, with
the possibility of peaceful demonstrations in some
localities, but no march in downtown Harare as yet. The
party might proceed to broader demonstrations depending on
what happens on March 18 and 19.


3. (C) In a separate conversation with the DCM and

polchief, MDC Member of Parliament and National Executive
member Tendai Biti said he was not privy to all of the
activities planned. He reported, however, that MDC youths
are planning to stone or burn commuter omnibuses which
attempt to transport people to work in the city center. He
said the stayaway would likely be accompanied by
demonstrations in the high-density suburbs, and that some
groups of people might try to carry their protests to the
city center. Biti noted that the MDC is currently drawing up
a list of businesses owned by ZANU-PF officials or party
donors for the purposes of organizing a boycott. Organizing
a boycott of the Commercial Bank of Zimbabwe, run by ZANU-PF
stalwart Gideon Gono, would be fairly easy, Biti claimed, as
Zimbabweans have many other banking options. He pointed out,
however, that it might be more difficult to convince people
to shun other businesses which produce the basic commodities
which are in such short supply these days.

Stayaway participation
--------------


4. (C) Meanwhile, many businesses we have checked with have
confirmed that they plan either to close on March 18 and 19
or to allow employees to miss work without sacrificing pay,
motivated by concern for the safety of their workers who live
in the high-density suburbs. At the same time, some
businessmen with whom we spoke were wary of taking any action
that might be interpreted by ruling party enforcers as
support for the stayaway. Contemplating that many of our
FSN's who live in high-density suburbs might have difficulty
getting to work on these two days, the Embassy has announced
a liberal leave policy.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) The MDC has worked intensively during the past year
to establish structures in most of Zimbabwe's urban centers
capable of organizing mass action. The fact that Tsvangirai,
who has been under enormous pressure to take such a step for
much of the past year, has now called for mass action
suggests he believes that the necessary organization is in
place and that the eminently patient Zimbabwean population,
angered by political repression and the economic implosion,
are finally ready to demonstrate their displeasure. During
the past several months, the MDC has planned a number of
small-scale protests in Harare's high-density suburbs -- at
bus stations, police stations, and food queues -- and appears
ready to broaden these activities.


6. (C) Although it is impossible to predict the outcome of
the March 18-19 stayaway, the fact that some employers have
promised not to dock their employees' pay and the fact that
many Zimbabweans have been urging the MDC to organize such an
action for some time now, increase the chances for a
successful stayaway. While recent labor union calls for
stayaways have flopped, the MDC has prepared the current
action more carefully and is seen by more Zimbabweans as the
embodiment of hope for change. And while the MDC evinces
confidence about this action's prospects for success, the
party also is aware of the risks and high costs of failure.
We are concerned about the possibility of violence and have
counseled the MDC at many levels, from Tsvangirai down, not
to initiate violence. Although the MDC leadership regularly
insists to us that it is pursing political change through
peaceful means, we cannot rule out the possibility of
spontaneous outbreaks of violence associated with the
stayaway. Security forces are on high alert and will seek to
frustrate any organized MDC action.
SULLIVAN