MUNICIPAL POLITICS TESTING THE MDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001973

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
PARIS FOR C. NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR EAID ZI
SUBJECT: MUNICIPAL POLITICS TESTING THE MDC

REF: A. HARARE 01935

B. HARARE 1731

C. HARARE 1555

D. HARARE 1491

Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d


1. (C) SUMMARY: Saddled with the responsibility to provide
services in often far-flung communities, new MDC mayors' and
councils' effectiveness will be constrained by legal battles,
a lack of resources, and the threat of interference from the
Ministry of Local Government. The MDC's victories in recent
mayoral and urban council elections represent notable
political victories, but it is unclear how prepared the
opposition party is to exploit them. So far, the government
has continued to hamstring the MDC mayor of Harare but has
not acted significantly against newly elected officials. END
SUMMARY.

MDC Municipal Gains
--------------


2. (U) Though the overall voter turnout in the August 30-31
mayoral and urban council elections was low, the MDC won six
out of eight mayoral slots and 135 urban council seats to
ZANU-PF's 132 (Ref B). The modest margin of MDC's majority
of urban council seats understates its relative popularity
vis-a-vis the ruling party. First, of the 132 seats that
went to ZANU-PF, 44 were uncontested after MDC candidates
were prevented from registering and running (Ref D). In
addition, the MDC had important wins in the largest
population centers -- six of the nation's seven largest urban
centers. The council seats which MDC won nationwide
represent about 1.5 million people, whereas the council seats
that ZANU-PF gained represent only about 500,000 people.
(Comment: Comparatively large councils appear to be skewed in
favor of ZANU-PF strongholds. End Comment.)

Harare Mayor Hemmed in by Legal Wrangles,
Limited Party Support
--------------


3. (C) On September 17, the High Court deferred a decision
on Minister of Local Government IGNATIUS Chombo's application
to confirm a provisional order barring suspended MDC Mayor
Elias Mudzuri from performing council duties - effectively
solidifying the Mayor's suspension (Ref A). Mudzuri has been
trying to meet with councilors and other partners informally,
at least to keep abreast of city business; it is unclear to
what extent he will continue those efforts given this recent
ruling. He is still living in the official residence, and
has the official car and fuel, but is not receiving his
salary.


4. (C) The head of the Ministry-appointed commission to
investigate Mudzuri, Jemison Kurasha, told poloff on
September 20 that the problem between the Minster and the
Mayor was not simply a personal one but a cultural one as
well. The Minister and Mayor appeared to clash over
patronage in the culture of corruption within Harare's city
government. The commission, though in existence since April,
first called Mudzuri in for an interview only on September

19. Kurasha said they should issue their report in a month
or so; however, Mike Davies, Chairman of the Combined Harare
Residents' Association (CHRA),said there was absolutely no
pressure on the commission to complete its investigation.


5. (C) Compounding Mudzuri's difficulties are his strained
relations with the MDC leadership. In a conversation with
Ambassador Sullivan on September 17, the Mayor criticized the
party leadership for not doing more to support him. He
complained that they were largely quiet about his travails
publicly, and had done nothing to rein in the Deputy Mayor.
According to MDC Director for Presidential Affairs Gandi
Mudzingwa, a close protege of party leader Morgan Tsvangirai,
the MDC leadership had questions about the professionalism of
Mudzuri's decisions on hirings and firings, and tender awards
while he was in office. Mudzingwa suggested that at the very
least Mudzuri might have been overzealous - incontinently
angering ZANU-PF officials.


6. (C) In August, Chombo postponed indefinitely elections for
a new Deputy Mayor - previously scheduled for that month -
pending the outcome of an investigation into Mudzuri's
activities as mayor. This was generally viewed as a maneuver
to keep the current MDC (but GOZ-friendly) Deputy Mayor in
office and effectively controlling the city's affairs.
Mudzuri told Ambassador Sullivan on September 17 that the
Deputy Mayor had refused to communicate with him for some
time. The Ministry of Local Government also attempted to
suspend six Harare city councilors, the new heads of several
important committees, in a move seen as intended to undercut
the MDC-led administration of city affairs and to prevent a
vote on a new Deputy Mayor. On September 11, the High Court
ruled against the Ministry and nullified the councilors'
suspensions.


7. (C) A September 25 council meeting descended into a
shouting match and was prematurely adjourned over the
suspension and reinstatement of three council employees.
Davies said Deputy Mayor Sekesai Makwavarara recently
reinstated the suspended employees with the support of a
GOZ-friendly faction of about 10-12 councilors led by Mt.
Pleasant councilor Chris Mushonga. The council's executive
committee, which has authority for hiring and firing,
authorized the suspensions over the past year but not the
reinstatements. Davies said there are about 10-12 councilors
who are toeing the MDC line, and an additional 20 or so who,
probably from inexperience, are susceptible to political
pressure. Of the 45 Harare city councilors, 44 are from the
MDC, one is from ZANU-PF.

Mayor Working Again in Chegutu
--------------


8. (C) On July 31 the previous ZANU-PF-dominated city council
of Chegutu voted to suspend MDC Mayor of Chegutu Francis
Dhlakama and to withdraw all benefits of his office (Ref C).
But the High Court on August 6 decided that the suspension
was illegal. The Mayor took a vacation, and on September 1
was physically threatened by the then Deputy Mayor when he
tried to return to work. Dhlakama spoke to Minister Chombo,
who in turn called the Chegutu Deputy Mayor and ordered him
to allow Dhlakama to return to work.


9. (C) The Ministry of Local Government had audited the
previous council's books and in a July report exposed rampant
corruption. The report implicated members of the previous
Chegutu council who Dhlakama said were involved in a scam to
skim tax funds without the blessing of ZANU-PF higher-ups
(Ref C). According to Dhlakama the Minster approved the
auditing procedure because he wanted to root out rogue
corruption. The audit was more damning than the Minister
expected, however, and it raised questions about the
Minister's own connections to some of the malfeasance. As a
result, the GOZ has taken no corrective action except to
effectively replace the entire council with a new ZANU-PF one
in the August local elections (Ref D). (Comment: It is
possible that Chombo facilitated Dhlakama's return as Mayor
to ameliorate a backlash against ZANU-PF in Chegutu from the
audit. End Comment.)

MDC Municipal Strategy/Seminar
--------------


10. (C) On September 20, three MDC provincial heads met with
eleven existing and newly elected MDC mayors in Matopos
(outside Bulawayo) for a strategy seminar. The newly elected
Mayor of Gwanda (Matabeleland South),Dr. Thandeko Mnkandhla,
said that the seminar covered basic topics such as how to
work with the city council, mayoral authority under the Urban
Councils Act, and advice on cooperating with the Ministry of
Local Government while not submitting to irregular
Ministerial demands. Bulawayo Mayor Japhet Ncube told us
that the mayors agreed they should avoid fights with the
Ministry which could disrupt city operations, since it would
be the MDC mayors who would be blamed for the resulting
paralysis of city government. Earlier this month, Mudzingwa
said the basic message would be to stick together, not to
lose focus, and to choose carefully how to react to likely
GOZ interference to disrupt civic administration. (Note:
Although the Minister stated publicly that he would be
meeting with all new mayors, so far, he has yet to call any
meetings with the MDC mayors. Furthermore he has not
responded to invitations from MDC mayors to attend their
inauguration ceremonies. End Note).


11. (C) A common concern at the seminar was the abhorrent
financial situation each Mayor inherited from the previous
ZANU-PF mayors - all their city treasuries were in the red -
and how to deliver basic city services while in debt. (Note:
The August 30 - 31 elections were the first in those towns
which the MDC contested since the party was formed in 1999.
End Note.) MDC leaders stressed that the mayors should focus
on visible deliverables, and seek outside assistance from
NGOs and Embassies, as the traditional grants from the
Ministry were unlikely to be forthcoming or sufficient. All
acknowledged that with today's inflation, local taxes on
residents would not cover the cost of basic city services.

COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) In many ways, municipal politics can be expected to
reflect the larger relationship between the parties here,
with the ruling party employing legal and administrative
harassment and its command of the purse-strings to undermine
MDC effectiveness. (The Urban Councils Act gives wide scope
for the Ministry of Local Government to intervene in
municipal affairs.) Although the Ministry of Local
Government has been relatively inactive against most newly
elected, MDC-led municipalities so far, that may change once
it has taken the measure of each and evaluated respective
vulnerabilities. Some local officials may attract ruling
party efforts at co-opting; given the difficult operating
environment and constituency pressure to deliver, some will
likely be enticed, which could contribute to intra-party
tensions. As the capital city, Harare's MDC presence can be
expected to attract special pressure from the ruling party,
as evidenced by Mudzuri's continuing woes.


13. (C) Municipal politics will be an increasingly important
battleground. Because so many municipal seats are occupied
by the opposition, both parties recognize that relevant
municipalities can be taken as a laboratory for the MDC's
capacity to govern. In the finger-pointing between
municipalities and the Ministry that inevitably will emerge
over municipal services, media management will be crucial to
the MDC in getting its message to the electorate. The
silencing of The Daily News and other government suppression
of independent media will handicap MDC efforts in that
respect. The MDC leadership's relative lack of support for
Mayor Mudzuri -- the most powerful elected position held by
the MDC -- is curious. The missed opportunities to make more
political hay of the Mayor's plight may be attributed in part
to personality differences, but may also reflect troublesome
institutional neglect by a distracted party.
SULLIVAN