OPPOSITION SCORES WELL IN ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HARARE 001731

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
PARIS FOR C. NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/31/2013
TAGS: PGOV PHUM SOCI ZI
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION SCORES WELL IN ZIMBABWE ELECTIONS
MARKED BY LESS INTIMIDATION

REF: (A) HARARE 1717 (B) HARARE 1711 (C) HARARE 636
(D) 2002 HARARE 2354

Classified By: Political Officer Audu Besmer for reasons 1.5 b/d


1. SUMMARY. (C) The MDC retained its parliamentary seat,
won six out of seven mayoral races, and gained more than
half of the urban council seats that were up for grabs in
local elections held August 30 - 31. Voting at polling
stations, observed by independent observers including
emboffs, was generally peaceful. Most irregularities
revolved around the run-up to the elections, with charges
of intimidation, vote-buying, and registration of ghost
voters. The election results generally went as expected,
although ZANU-PF machinations may have been decisive in at
least one instance. END SUMMARY.

Results Breakdown
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2. (U) Mayoral Urban Council

MDC ZANU-PF
1 Bulawayo 29 0
2 Chitungwiza 5 2
3 Gwanda MDC 6 3
4 Gweru MDC 9 1
5 Hwange 5 1
6 Kadoma 0 16
7 Kariba MDC 6 3
8 Karoi results pending
9 Kwekwe ZANU-PF 2 12
10 Marondera 0 11
11 Mashvingo 8 2
12 Mutare MDC results pending
13 Norton 4 8
14 Redcliff MDC 8 1
15 Ruwa 3 5
16 Shurugwi 0 13
17 Victoria Falls MDC 8 3
18 Zvishavane 5 5

TOTALS 6 MDC, 1 ZANU-PF 98 86

By-Elections

1 Harare Central MDC
2 Makonde ZANU-PF

Observing
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3. (C) Four Emboffs took part in an independent diplomatic
observing mission that covered most areas of the country
just before, and on the voting days themselves. While GOZ
never acted on repeated requests from the U.S. and other
diplomatic missions to be accredited as official election
observers, the Registrar General in Harare on the first day
of voting reportedly authorized diplomats to observe.
However, the authorization was not communicated effectively
to local authorities, who sometimes restricted access to
polling places and frequently refused to answer questions.
The Zimbabwe Elections Support Network (ZESN) reported that
its observers had difficulty gaining access to only about
ten percent of the polling stations, and they observed
irregularities in about five to ten percent of the polling
stations they entered. All ZESN observers eventually were
given access to their assigned polling stations, a marked
improvement over prior elections in which they were beaten
or otherwise obstructed in many instances.

Violence and Intimidation
--------------


4. (C) There were only a few reports of violence and
tension on the voting days, and Emboffs found the
atmosphere to be slightly more open to their presence than
in previous local elections. The MDC reported that ZANU-PF
youths stoned the car of the MDC mayoral candidate in
Kwekwe on August 30. Other reports had voters obstructed
from reaching polling stations. Emboff observed armed
police attempting to calm mostly MDC voters who were
shouting and shoving at a polling station in the Mutare
area when a ZANU-PF candidate tried to form a second line
for her voters only. There were other reports of violence,
unlawful detention, house stoning and burning during the
run-up to elections; however, there reports were fewer in
number and the incidents were less egregious than in
previous local elections (Refs). MDC officials generally
agreed that the atmosphere before and during the elections
was more peaceful than in the past.

Voters Rolls
--------------


5. (C) There were several reports from around the country
that there had been mysterious additions to voter rolls,
and voters with improper addresses. According to Renson
Gasela, MDC Shadow Minister of Agriculture, in about half
of the polling stations in the Gweru area, camp kitchens
were set up about 100 meters from polling stations to
apparently feed voters who had been bussed in from rural
areas. According to the MDC mayoral candidate in Gweru, on
August 30, a confused woman who was not on the voters roll
implored polling officials to let her vote, saying she'd
been brought in from a rural area for that purpose. The
candidate also relayed stories of hundreds of odd addresses
on the voters' roll, including a bus terminal, a P.O. Box
and 200 voters registered to one apartment alone.

Food Distribution
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6. (C) MDC officials in Bulawayo, Gweru, Gwanda, Mutare,
Marondera and Kwekwe alleged that during the pre-election
period, national youth service members ("Green Bombers")
sold maize meal in ten to fifty kilogram bags for about
Z$1,000 (US$0.20)--when the normal price for ten kilogram
bags has been about Z$14,000 (US$2.50) (Ref A).

Apathy
--------------


7. (C) The worst case of voter apathy seemed to occur in
Harare Central where 4036 votes were cast, or only about
eleven percent of registered voters, according to the
government-controlled The Herald. Emboffs observed lines
of hundreds of people in front of banks around the country
during voting hours, while voters arrived in trickles to
polling stations.

Results
--------------


8. (C) The results in almost all of these constituencies
were roughly consistent with expectations, and previous
elections in these areas. The only glaring difference so
far was in Kwekwe, where the ruling party swept the mayoral
and all council seats. In the 2002 Presidential elections,
the ruling party garnered only 36 percent in Kwekwe, and in
the 2000 parliamentary elections it got a paltry 34
percent.

Comment
--------------


9. (C) These elections were characterized primarily by low
voter turnout and reduced levels of violence. As in
previous elections, much of the ruling party's machinations
were disruptive but not decisive. It is difficult to say
how much low voter turnout at these local elections should
be attributed to intimidation or plain apathy -- daily life
for many in Zimbabwe leaves insufficient time, resources or
inclination to vote (witness the long bank lines often
within sight of empty polling stations). Reduced levels of
violence on a national level likely reflect in part
ZANU-PF's desire to improve its engagement with the
opposition and interested international players.
Nonetheless, intimidation through physical and economic
duress in several areas indicated that the party is
unwilling to lose even local areas in certain instances.
For example, Kwekwe -- site of Parliamentary Speaker
Emmerson Mnangagwa's embarrassing defeat in the last
parliamentary election -- saw a relatively high level of
intimidation and manipulation that may have been decisive
in the result. In any event, the overall results secure
the opposition's overall grip on urban electorates, which
have given the MDC control of six of the country's seven
largest urban centers and make it harder to ignore.
Largely expected as they were and marked by a gradually
growing civility between the parties, the results further
are unlikely to affect either the national imbalance of
power between the parties or progress on interparty talks.
SULLIVAN