MDC LEADER TSVANGIRAI WELL AND DETERMINED TO MOVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L HARARE 001267

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AF/FO, AF/S
NSC FOR AFRICA SR DIR FRAZER
LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2013
TAGS: PREL PINS ZI MDC
SUBJECT: MDC LEADER TSVANGIRAI WELL AND DETERMINED TO MOVE
FORWARD

Classified By: JOSEPH G. SULLIVAN FOR REASONS 1.5B/D

1.(c) Tsvangirai released: The Ambassador met MDC President
Morgan Tsvangirai at his home on June 23. Except for a bad
cold, he was upbeat and determined following his June 20
release from prison after two weeks. Tsvangirai expressed
appreciation for the many messages of solidarity received and
for the public pressure for his release and for a political
solution to Zimbabwe's crisis. Tsvangirai was stoic and
strong and determined that neither he nor the MDC would be
broken through GOZ tactics of violence, intimidation or
humiliation. He acknowledged that his family had feared for
his fate inside prison, but said that he was not mistreated
by the guards and that the prisoners were very supportive.
He suffered only as other prisoners suffered, 150 to a large
cell with poor food and inadequate cover for the cold winter
nights. Tsvangirai hopes that this second treason charge
will never be taken to court and that the first treason
charge will be dismissed shortly based on a defense motion
following the conclusion of state testimony.


2. (c) MDC politics: Tsvangirai said that the MDC would never
be lured into ZANU/PF efforts to divide the MDC and to play
up to a supposed moderate group led by Sec Gen Welshman
Ncube. Tsvangirai said that all recognized that the MDC
derived its strength from unified positions and that anyone
acting outside the party had little weight. The Party would
be meeting in the next week to chart the way forward, but,
while mass action was still part of MDC options, Tsvangirai
did not anticipate any such action in the near term. Nor did
he believe that pressure for violent action would grow within
the MDC.


3. (c) President Bush's travel to Africa/ Need for a roadmap:
Tsvangirai was very focused on President Bush's upcoming

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travel to Africa and anxious that Zimbabwe be raised
prominently by the US during the visit. Tsvangirai said that
what was needed was a "roadmap for resolving the political
crisis. The first and most difficult was finding a dignified
way for Mugabe to step down. A transition process was next,
although its length would depend on the shape and content of
a transition. Elections were also critical to restore
legitimacy; their timing would depend on the transition.
Tsvangirai promised to keep us informed of the status of

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negotiations efforts in anticipation of President Bush's
visit.


4. (c) South African and other mediation efforts: Tsvangirai
described South African efforts to broker a solution so far
as "talks about the conditions and content of inter-party
talks. He did take some comfort in a reportedly tough
message delivered to Mugabe by Vice President Jacob Zuma
following President Mbeki's discussions at the G-8 meetings
to the effect that South Africa could not wait indefinitely
for a solution to the Zimbabwean crisis. Tsvangirai believed
that the South Africans had belatedly accepted that the MDC
was essential to a solution and that eventual elections were
also necessary. Nonetheless, the South Africans gave
preference to stability over democracy and would most like to
see the MDC absorbed as a junior partner in a ZANU-PF
government. Tsvangirai said he would also be open to any
efforts by Father Fidelis to arrange an "ice-breaking"
meeting between Mugabe and Tsvangirai. Similarly, Tsvangirai
viewed meetings between a Church delegation and senior
ZANU-PF leaders as potentially useful because of the
seniority of the ZANU delegation. However, Tsvangirai was
skeptical of apparently independent initiatives by State
Security Minister Goche seeking to talk with Welshman Ncube
during Tsvangirai's imprisonment and by Justice Minister
Chinamassa offering Tsvangirai the Vice Presidency in a
Mnangagwa Presidency. Tsvangirai noted that President Mugabe
appeared to show no urgency in finding a solution and to
continue searching for a succession formula dominated by
ZANU-PF.

5.(c) Comment: ZANU-PF's effort to take advantage of its
suppression of MDC-organized marches, its demonstrated
control of the security forces and its ability to imprison
and humiliate Tsvangirai have not succeeded. Tsvangirai has
emerged undeterred and ZANU-PF will have to recognize the
need to deal with him and the MDC in order to resolve the
national crisis.

SULLIVAN