Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03HARARE1233
2003-06-16 14:52:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Harare
Cable title:  

MUGABE STILL PACKS A PUNCH

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PINR ZI MDC ZANU PF 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.

161452Z Jun 03
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001233 

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER
LONDON FOR C.GURNEY
PARIS FOR C.NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER
DS/OP/AF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2008
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI MDC ZANU PF
SUBJECT: MUGABE STILL PACKS A PUNCH


Classified By: Political Officer Peggy Blackford for reasons 1.5 b/d

Summary
----------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001233

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J. FRAZER
LONDON FOR C.GURNEY
PARIS FOR C.NEARY
NAIROBI FOR T. PFLAUMER
DS/OP/AF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2008
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ZI MDC ZANU PF
SUBJECT: MUGABE STILL PACKS A PUNCH


Classified By: Political Officer Peggy Blackford for reasons 1.5 b/d

Summary
--------------


1. (C) Robert Mugabe went on the offensive last week
following the previous week's mass action by the opposition
party, the MDC. Mugabe was pugnacious and triumphalist and
used every opportunity to demean his political rival, MDC
President, Morgan Tsvangirai. At the same time he took to
his political stronghold in the countryside and heaped
criticism on the West and local whites. Tsvangirai is still
being imprisoned on new charges of treason. At his bail
hearing, the State argued that thinking of treason is in
itself treason. The judge reserved her decision until
possibly this week. Mugabe's recent actions seem more reflex
than strategy. There seems little to be gained by kicking
his opponents while they are down but in the past he has
shown himself to be incapable of conciliation.

Mugabe: Getting younger and still punching
-------------- --------------

2. (C) On June 8 following a week of mass action organized
by the opposition MDC, President Robert Mugabe, in an
interview given to the South African Broadcasting Company,
declared that, "I am ready for a fight, I am getting
younger..., and I still can punch." In the week since he has
matched his actions to his words, demeaning the opposition,
incarcerating political opponents on the flimsiest of
charges, threatening diplomatic establishments, and stirring
up racial hatred. Avoiding urban areas which are MDC
strongholds, he went on the offense during a swing through
provinces and rural areas where ZANU-PF has traditionally
been strong.

Taking aim at the opposition
--------------


3. (U) On June 13, at a rally some 50 kilometers from
Zimbabwe's second city, Bulawayo, Mugabe vowed to crush any
future mass action. He warned that participation in
demonstrations would be "playing with fire" and added, "We
will never allow the MDC to hold another mass action. That

will never happen again." Mugabe derided MDC President
Tsvangirai saying sarcastically that the MDC planned to put

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Tsvangirai in State House (the President's home) by Friday

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and that he was glad that Tsvangirai was, in fact, in State
house (prison). Referring to members of the MDC, Mugabe
said, "We hope they have learned their lesson. If they
haven't, they will learn it the hard way." The GOZ moved to
enforce this crackdown by announcing that it had banned
strikes in the public sector. This would include doctors,
nurses, utility, transport, and communication workers,
firefighters and employees of the state radio and television.


And the British
--------------


4. (U) A day earlier, at a rally in Manicaland some 300
kilometers from the capital, Mugabe accused British High
Commissioner, Brian Donnelly and the British Government of
funding the MDC mass action and threatening to expel the High
Commissioner "if he continued interfering in the affairs of
the country by helping the MDC stage illegal and violent
demonstrations." Donnelly denied Mugabe's allegations of
funding or organizing the mass action while underlining
support for "the rights of Zimbabweans to freedom of
expression and association." This threat follows on remarks
made June 7 at the funeral of Joshua Nkomo's widow where
Mugabe criticized both the British and the American embassies
for their alleged "illegal activities."

And white Zimbabweans
--------------


5. (U) Mugabe also used both rallies to fan hatred of white
Zimbabweans. In Manicaland, he said, "These whites are not
deserving cases in regards to land allocation because they
are destabilizing our society. They are supporting a party
pursing an illegal course to power. If they have any land
left we will take it." He then singled out Roy Bennet, a
white commercial farmer and MDC MP for the Chimanmani
district of Manicaland, for disrupting the operations of
newly resettled farmers. Bennet, speaking to South African
news sources on June 15, reported that a separate farm in
Ruwa close to Harare had subsequently been occupied by
ZANU-PF supporters. At the rally near Bulawayo, Mugabe said
that whites "just wanted to take and refused to give. They
never accepted our rule ...They despise our government and
want to destroy it. We refuse to be destroyed. Instead, we
will destroy them."

Tsvangirai: He sinned in thought

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--------------


6. (U) On the concluding day of Tsvangirai's bail
application, after defense attorney Bizos showed that
Tsvangirai had never called for violent demonstrations, the

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prosecutor argued that Tsvangirai was guilty of treason
because "It's not a question of personally or physically
participating in a violent or physical manner. Merely
postulating or contemplating can be to commit treason." This
led one MDC supporter to say that given that criteria "we all
commit treason when we wake up in the morning." The
presiding judge said that she needed more time to render her
judgment and "could make a decision next week."

Mugabe's actions; Strategy or reflex
--------------


7. (C) Comment. Most observers agree that Mugabe and the
GOZ came out ahead during the mass action proving that they
still have firm control of the military and police. The MDC,
on the other hand, was limited to a relatively successful
stayaway, no small accomplishment but nothing they had not
accomplished before. With that in mind, it is hard to
understand why Mugabe has chosen to be so deliberately
provocative. A South Africa journalist speculated that it
might be early campaigning but that seems unlikely. Instead
it seems as though Mugabe is incapable of new tactics. Mugabe
has the power to lock Tsvangirai away, humiliate him in leg
irons and so he has done it Mugabe has always taken the hard
line and given nothing away. That has worked for him in the
past and he appears unable to see that in Zimbabwe's current
economic situation, there must be concessions if the country
is to avoid ruin.
SULLIVAN