TSVANGIRAI FACES NEW TREASON CHARGES, AWAITS BAIL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 001171

SIPDIS

NSC FOR SENIOR AFRICA DIRECTOR J FRAZER
LONDON FOR C. GURNEY
PARIS FOR C. NEARY
BANGKOK FOR WIN DAYTON
DS/OP/AF

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/09/2008
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PINR ASEC ZI MDC
SUBJECT: TSVANGIRAI FACES NEW TREASON CHARGES, AWAITS BAIL
HEARING: MUGABE DERIDES MDC, CONDEMNS OUTSIDE INTERFERENCE

Classified By: POLITICAL OFFICER PEGGY BLACKFORD FOR REASONS 1.5B/D

SUMMARY
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1. (C) AFTER A WEEK OF MASS ACTION WHICH PRODUCED LESS THAN
THE OPPOSITION WOULD HAVE LIKED, MDC LEADER, MORGAN
TSVANGIRAI FOUND HIMSELF UNDER ARREST FOR TREASON ONCE AGAIN.

SIPDIS
HE SPENT THE WEEKEND IN JAIL AND IS CURRENTLY AWAITING A
RULING IN A BAIL HEARING. PRESIDENT MUGABE SOUNDED
TRIUMPHANT IN SPEECHES OVER THE WEEKEND GLOATING OVER HIS
GOVERNMENT'S ABILITY TO PREVENT DEMONSTRATIONS AND PLACING
THE BLAME FOR "ILLEGAL" ACTIONS ON THE MDC AND ITS
SUPPORTERS, THE BRITISH AND US EMBASSIES. NEGOTIATIONS MAY
BE MORE DIFFICULT IF THE GOZ BELIEVES IT NOW HAS THE UPPER
HAND.

MDC LEADER PUTS POSITIVE SPIN ON WEEK'S EVENTS
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2. (U) AT A PRESS CONFERENCE HELD EARLY ON THE AFTERNOON OF
JUNE 6 AT THE HOME OF THE MDC LEADER, MORGAN TSVANGIRAI TOLD
JOURNALISTS AND DIPLOMATS THAT HE VIEWED THE WEEK'S MASS
ACTION AS A SUCCESS. THE STAYAWAY HAD BEEN WIDELY SUPPORTED
AND THE GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE HAD ONLY PREVENTED MASS
DEMONSTRATIONS BY MASSIVE AND WIDESPREAD USE OF THE POLICE
AND MILITARY. HE PROMISED THAT ROLLING MASS ACTIONS WOULD
CONTINUE WITHOUT NOTICE.

TSVANGIRAI ARRESTED ANEW ON FRESH TREASON CHARGES

SIPDIS
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3. (C) SHORTLY AFTER THE CONCLUSION OF THE PRESS CONFERENCE,
TSVANGIRAI WAS PICKED UP BY POLICE AND CHARGED WITH TREASON

SIPDIS
FOR ALLEGEDLY CALLING ON ZIMBABWEANS TO OUST MUGABE FROM
POWER IN A NUMBER OF PUBLIC GATHERINGS OVER THE LAST FEW
MONTHS. HE WAS INCARCERATED AT THE BORROWDALE POLICE STATION
OVER THE WEEKEND. ACCORDING TO SPECIAL PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR,
GANDI MUDZINGWA, SEVERAL HIGH RANKING GOZ OFFICIALS INCLUDING
THE MINISTER FOR STATE SECURITY AND THE HEAD OF THE CENTRAL
INTELLIGENCE ORGANIZATION SOUGHT TO TALK TO TSVANGIRAI BUT HE
WAS ALLOWED NO VISITORS EXCEPT FOR HIS WIFE. FATHER FIDELIS
MUKONORI, WHO HAS BEEN TRYING TO FACILITATE DIALOGUE BETWEEN
TSVANGIRAI AND MUGABE, ALSO SOUGHT TO SEE THE MDC LEADER AND

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TOLD MUDZINGWA THAT HE WAS TRYING TO ARRANGE A MEETING
BETWEEN TSVANGIRAI AND MUGABE FOR THURSDAY. MUDZINGWA WAS
SKEPTICAL THAT SUCH A MEETING WOULD TAKE PLACE. WELSHMAN
NCUBE, SECRETARY-GENERAL OF THE MDC, WAS ALSO BEING SOUGHT
AND, AFTER STAYING OUT OF SIGHT FOR THE WEEKEND, HE PRESENTED
HIMSELF FOR QUESTIONING BY THE POLICE MONDAY MORNING IN THE
COMPANY OF HIS ATTORNEY.

TSVANGIRAI BAIL HEARING PENDING

SIPDIS
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4. (SBU) AS OF LATE THIS AFTERNOON, JUNE 9, JUDGE GARWE WHO
IS PRESIDING OVER THE ONGOING TREASON TRIAL BEFORE THE HIGH
COURT DISMISSED THE GOVERNMENT'S APPLICATION TO AMEND CURRENT
BAIL CONDITIONS WHICH WOULD HAVE PREVENTED TSVANGIRAI FROM
SPEAKING IN PUBLIC. HE REFUSED, HOWEVER, TO ENTERTAIN THE
DEFENSE'S APPLICATION FOR BAIL ON THE NEW CHARGES SAYING THAT
THE MAGISTRATES COURT HAS JURISDICTION IN SUCH MATTERS UNLESS
THERE IS CONCURRENCE WITH THE ATTORNEY GENERAL'S OFFICE. THE
DEFENSE AND THE A.G. REACHED AGREEMENT ON THIS ISSUE AND BAIL
WILL BE CONSIDERED TOMORROW MORNING BY THE HIGH COURT JUDGE
ON DUTY.

MUGABE CLAIMS VICTORY, WARNS OUTSIDERS ABOUT INTERFERING
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5. (SBU) BY LAST WEEK'S END, PRESIDENT MUGABE WAS CLEARLY
FEELING THAT HE HAD COME OUT AHEAD. AT A RALLY IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE ON FRIDAY, JUNE 6, HE JOKED WITH AN AUDIENCE OF
SUPPORTERS ABOUT THE MDC AND WAS SCORNFUL OF TSVANGIRAI'S
ASPIRATIONS TO THE PRESIDENCY. ACCORDING TO THE GOVERNMENT
OWNED HERALD, HE WAS QUOTED AS LIKENING THE MDC LEADER TO A
MAN REJECTED BY A WOMEN WHO NONETHELESS CONTINUES TO PURSUE
HER. ON SATURDAY AT THE FUNERAL OF MAMA MAFUYANE, WIDOW OF
THE LATE VICE-PRESIDENT JOSHUA NKOMO, THE PRESIDENT TOOK THIS
RATHER INAPPROPRIATE OPPORTUNITY TO TELL THE BRITISH AND US
EMBASSIES TO STOP HELPING THE MDC ACHIEVE AN ILLEGAL
OBJECTIVE AND TO WARN THAT "THEIR INSTIGATION CANNOT BE
TOLERATED FOREVER BY MY GOVERNMENT." A THOUSAND OR SO
ZANU-PF SUPPORTERS IN THEIR BRAND NEW "NO TO MASS ACTION"
T-SHIRTS APPLAUDED ENTHUSIASTICALLY.

COMMENT
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6. (C) ALTHOUGH LAST WEEK'S MASS ACTION WAS SUCCESSFUL IN
CLOSING DOWN MOST BUSINESS IN HARARE AND OTHER CITIES, IT WAS
SOMETHING OF A PR FAILURE. TSVANGIRAI APPARENTLY
OVERESTIMATED HIS SUPPORTERS' COURAGE IN THE FACE OF PROBABLE
VIOLENCE. HIS ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE MDC HAD CANCELED
DEMONSTRATIONS FOR FEAR OF INJURY TO THE PUBLIC SEEMED TO BE
SPINNING THE NEWS AS BEST HE COULD. CERTAINLY MUGABE IS
REACTING AS THOUGH HE IS FIRMLY IN CHARGE AND CAPABLE OF
DEALING WITH ANY PESKY OPPOSITION THAT MIGHT ARISE. IF HE
SINCERELY BELIEVES THIS, IT DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR SERIOUS
NEGOTIATIONS. NONETHELESS, THE TRAIPSING OF ZANU-PF AND
GOVERNMENT OFFICIALS TO TSVANGIRAI SHOWS THAT THE REGIME
RECOGNIZES THAT IT HAS NO WAY OUT OF THE COUNTRY'S CRISIS.
IN THAT CONTEXT, HEIGHTENING PRESSURE ON TSVANGIRAI AND THE
MDC THROUGH NEW TREASON CHARGES AND DETENTION CAN BE ANOTHER
WAY TO WEAKEN THE OPPONENT PRIOR TO UNAVOIDABLE DIALOGUE.
END COMMENT
SULLIVAN