PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BERGER SUPPORTS CAFTA AND A

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000057

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/09/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ETRD MOPS SNAR GT
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BERGER SUPPORTS CAFTA AND A
REDUCTION OF THE MILITARY


Classified By: A/DCM David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a tour d'horizon with the Ambassador on
January 7, PAN Presidential candidate Oscar Berger said that
the PAN believes it will win the 2003 national elections, and
that their priorities as a government would be completing
negotiation of a free trade agreement with us, "rightsizing"
the military and implementing the 1996 Peace Accords (without
calling it that). The Ambassador told Berger that addressing
Guatemala's growing problem of violent common crime and the
influence of the criminal mafias would be critical for the
success of the next government, whoever is elected. End
summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador and A/DCM had breakfast with
center-right Partido Accion Nacional (PAN) presidential
candidate Oscar Berger, and his campaign manager Eduardo
Gonzalez on January 7. Most polls show Berger significantly
ahead of all other potential candidates in public preference;
Guatemalan polls are notoriously inaccurate, however, and the
elections remain almost ten months away. Gonzalez noted, in
that connection, that current polling is like asking a person
who isn't hungry what he wants for dinner, implying that the
PAN realizes current numbers are soft. Berger enjoys
considerable financial support from the private sector and
growing popular support from those opposed to the ruling
Frente Republicano Guatemalteco (FRG).

THE UPCOMING ELECTIONS
--------------

3. (C) Berger expressed confidence that the PAN will win the
2003 national elections, noting that the polls show him
considerably ahead of other potential contenders. He
believes FRG Secretary General and former strongman Efrain
Rios Montt will not be a candidate, choosing instead to
protect his legal immunity by running again for Congress
where he is certain to win a seat. Berger and Gonzalez both
expressed concern that the ruling FRG would use government
resources to leverage public support in the elections, and
argued that OAS election observation needs to begin long
before election day (Note: we understand the local OAS office
is already in talks with the Supreme Electoral Tribunal on
the possibility of an early OAS observation role in the
elections. end note). Berger believes the FRG will try to
use financial payments to the former civil patrol members
(ex-PACs) to buy their votes, and will manipulate the ongoing
census to increase the FRG's representation in the
legislature.


4. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question regarding
public divisions in the PAN, Berger remarked that he had
decided, against the advise of some of this collaborators, to
make concessions to party Secretary General Leonel Lopez in
order to heal the wounds still dividing the party from the
recent primary election. He implied that he is prepared to
offer Lopez much of the patronage he sought. It was apparent
from Gonzalez's reaction to this statement that the decision
to make concessions to Lopez continues to divide Berger's
team. Berger also commented that he is meeting with small
political parties from the full range of the political
spectrum seeking to build a broad base of support. He noted
that he has already had positive responses from emerging
political leaders Otto Perez Molina and Jorge Briz.


5. (C) Berger believes that his election would ensure that
all the countries of Central America have forward-looking
pragmatic leaders, commenting that, following the elections
of Maduro and Bolanos, the Portillo administration is last of
a breed of populist authoritarians that used to rule the
isthmus.

CAFTA
--------------

6. (C) The Ambassador told Berger that we believe a free
trade agreement between Central America and the United States
will revolutionize the countries of the isthmus, and will
offer unprecedented opportunities for economic growth and
poverty reduction. Berger agreed, and said his presidency
would fully support expedited negotiation of CAFTA, and
expressed regret that the Portillo government has not
invested more effort in the regional negotiation. Berger,
who travels frequently to El Salvador and maintains a strong
relationship with President Flores, opined that El Salvador
is significantly ahead of Guatemala in preparations for
CAFTA, and argued that Guatemala had suffered from "a poor
negotiating team" and lack of interest on the part of
Portillo. He promised that a PAN government would make CAFTA
one of its highest priorities.

THE FUTURE OF THE ARMED FORCES AND FIGHTING CRIME
-------------- --------------

7. (C) Prompted by the Ambassador, Berger mused about the
future of the military in Guatemala, arguing that they
currently have no role which justified their consumption of
such a considerable part of the government's budget. He said
his own inclination is to eliminate the military altogether
or turn it into a national guard "like in Costa Rica," but
his advisors disagree with him. He said that if the military
can not be abolished, it should be given a crime fighting
role "as in Honduras." He said Portillo has come up with a
plan to put 15,000 soldiers in a modified uniform on the
streets to control crime, and Berger thinks that is a good
idea. The Ambassador noted that using the military in a
police support role would violate the Peace Accords, and
asked if that job could not better be done by the police.
Berger took the point, but said that he believed military
discipline was necessary to confront the overwhelming problem
of violent crime.


8. (C) The Ambassador asked Berger how he envisioned
combating the organized crime mafias which currently have so
much influence with the government, noting that the success
of the next government will depend to a large extent on
bringing violent crime and organized crime under control.
Berger acknowledged that controlling the influence of
organized crime is not going to be easy. He said that when
he travels for campaign rallies to Peten, Izabal and Zacapa
(the heartland of narcotrafficking) he has to be very careful
about who offers him security and who wants to be
photographed with him, as he does not know to distinguish
between local supporters and local druglords. He said his
own local campaign organizers are totally intimidated by the
criminal mafias and often are scared to shield him from them
when they want to participate in his rallies. Berger said
that his campaign would set up an intelligence section which
would vet all names for public positions, so that his
government would not come to power with debts or promises to
give jobs to narco-traffickers.

IMPLEMENTING THE PEACE ACCORDS (BY ANOTHER NAME)
-------------- ---

9. (C) Berger said that the party is working diligently on
drawing up a plan of government, and that the basis for the
PAN campaign platform would be the "essence" of the 1996
Peace Accords. Berger commented that there was no national
consensus to back the accords, generating resistance to plans
which bear the "Peace Accord" label. He said that the PAN
platform would parallel the Peace Accords closely, but that
it would not make explicit reference to the Accords.

REGIONAL INTEGRATION
--------------

10. (C) Berger disparaged the Central American Parliament
(PARLACEN) for not being anything more than a hide out for
third rate politicians and crooks. He said that it was the
most worthless of the more than 60 Central American
integration organizations, and it absorbed more money than
all the other institutions put together. He said that
governments found it to be a convenient way of providing
patronage, however, and he does not see any initiative to
abolish it.

COMMENT
--------------

11. (C) Berger was very much at ease, and discussed his goals
for addressing national issues with greater depth and
self-confidence than in the earlier stages of his campaign.
He wanted to project himself as someone who shares many of
our same values, and someone we could work with to transform
Guatemala through free trade and greater cooperation against
transnational crime. Despite early poll results favorable to
Berger, the outcome of the election is far from predictable.
That said, disaffection with the current FRG government has
led many, at this early stage of the campaign, to see Berger
as the most viable alternative.
Hamilton