TEACHERS STRIKE DEEPENS, TESTING GOG

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 000537

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE

DEPARTMENT FOR DRL/IL WHA/PPC AND WHA/CEN
DEPARTMENT OF LABOR FOR ILAB: ROBERT WHOLEY
USTR FOR BUD CLATANOFF

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: ELAB PGOV KDEM ASEC CASC GT
SUBJECT: TEACHERS STRIKE DEEPENS, TESTING GOG

REF: A. GUATEMALA 507


B. GUATEMALA 473


1. (SBU) Summary: February 26, Day 38 of the national
teachers strike affecting 80,000 public schoolteachers and
over 2 million students, saw blockades of major airports,
ports, border crossings, and oil refineries, and the
indefinite suspension of Congress due to the protests. After
receiving a conciliatory message from President Portillo
later that day, however, strikers abandoned protests blocking
Guatemala's two international airports on February 27.
Wrangling between strikers and the GOG now appears back to
the bargaining table, mediated by Archbishop Quezada Toruno.
The Archbishop told the Ambassador early on February 26 that
the GOG's ability to increase the budget is constrained.
Strike leaders told LabAtt they are committed to non-violence
and do not seek to destabilize the GOG by collaborating with
opposition groups including the organized private sector.
Nevertheless, the teacher strike occurs at a moment of
vulnerability for the GOG and governing FRG, and could spur
additional protests if it continues. End Summary.

Teachers Give Their Side of Conflict
--------------


2. (SBU) On February 26 LabAtt met with a group of strike
leaders including Nery Barrios, Secretary General of the
Unity of Social and Popular Action (UASP) labor federation,
and Teachers Association leaders Roberto Madrid, Romualdo
Maldonado, Joviel Acevedo, and Julio Solano. LabAtt stated
USG concerns over the blockage by protesters of airports,
ports and border crossings, which we do not view as
legitimate means to impel dialogue in a democracy. Strike
leaders responded that throughout a long and frustrating
process that originated over a year ago, they have strictly
maintained a policy of non-violence and has striven mightily
to prevent their members from responding in kind to
intimidation, threats and provocations from anti-strike
agents. Acevedo said he had received threats explicitly
sourced to the Presidential Guard (EMP),and that his home
has been invaded and family members threatened. Solano said
he had also suffered similar threats. Strike leaders agreed
to keep this meeting with LabAtt confidential, and did not
ask for any public Embassy role in their conflict. Madrid
suggested, however, that the Consultative Group might
helpfully address the issue of educational reform directly in
its May meeting resolutions.


3. (SBU) Strike leaders said that strikers had received and
rejected many offers by opposition political parties and
other groups including university students, campesinos and
the private sector to join the teachers' protests. The
teachers said they rejected these offers, most recently from
the president of the main employer association (CACIF)
because the do not want to lose control, be used for partisan
political ends, or for the situation to threaten the
democratic stability of the country. LabAtt praised this
stance. Madrid summarized the origins and motivation of the
teachers' demands, which the GOG and media have distorted by
portraying the conflict as essentially about salaries/budgets
instead of the educational reforms blocked by the FRG in
Congress in August 2002, which provoked the current
escalation of direct action by teachers. However, key
demands that must be addressed for the teachers to return to
class include an agreement on the budget increase for the
education ministry, and a GOG commitment to desist from
reprisals against strikers. (Note: A labor court judge
declared the strike illegal on February 20 and gave strikers
five days to report to work, which was promptly appealed by
strikers. If upheld, strikers who refuse to return to work
could be legally dismissed. End Note.)

CACIF Denies Meddling
--------------


4. (SBU) Upon hearing of teachers' allegations of CACIF
offers to support teachers with a "general strike,"
EconCouns, on Ambassdor's instructions, expressed concern to
Roberto Castaneda, current Chamber of Agriculture President
and CACIF Vice President, who will be named CACIF's new
President starting March 3. Castaneda agreed that, if true,
Nuetze was "out of line," and he reconfirmed what CACIF
leaders told the Ambassador on February 25: they are
concerned over apparent escalation of agitation against the
government and have the perception that situation could
spiral out of control. Calm and leadership, not inciting
passions, was what the country needed, they told the
Ambassador. Castaneda promised to look into this and get
back to us.

Archbishop Sees Difficult Negotiations Ahead
--------------


5. (SBU) Archbishop Rodolfo Quezada Toruno told Ambassador
in a courtesy call on February 26 that it would be very
difficult to resolve the conflict, which he was called upon
to mediate by both sides. Three early rounds of meetings
during the week of February 14 were getting nowhere, so on
February 24, Quezada told both sides that without a shift in
positions, he saw no reason to continue. When the GOG,
represented at the dialogue table by the Ministers of
Education, Labor, and Finance, expressed willingness to
consider an increase to the education ministry's budget,
Quezada asked strike leaders to reconsider their demand for
2.8 billion queztals and submit a more realistic proposal.
He had not received a response when Ambassador and LabAtt
called on him, but confided that he believed the most the GOG
could offer would be an increase of 1 billion, without having
to raise the consumption tax, which would be politically
impossible. That would permit a salary raise of 2-300
quetzals per month ($25-38) and money left over to improve
schools. Quezada Toruno noted that the Education Ministry
budget currently comprises 11% of the budget, the highest
amount after payment of government debt. Minister of Finance
Eduardo Weymann publicly defended the level of that budget,
saying it was now 40% higher than in 1999.


6. (SBU) On other issues, Quezada thanked the Ambassador
(three times) for his early visits to human rights defenders,
including the Archbishop's Office on Human Rights (ODHAG),
for the important signal that sent of U.S. interest.
Quezada's most difficult decision, he said, since taking
office in June 2001, was to continue the Church's status as a
plaintiff in the Gerardi case. The Ambassador praised that
decision as the right one, and asked whether Quezada believed
the justice system had revealed the truth of the Gerardi
killing. Quezada said no, but expressed confidence in the
Supreme Court ruling that the appeals (but not the original
verdict) be re-done. Asked by the Ambassador for his view on
the complicity of Mario Orantes, the priest sentenced to 20
years for his role in the crime, Quezada said he believed,
with the vast majority of the clergy, that Orantes knows more
than he is saying.

Comment
--------------


7. (SBU) The teachers' strike occurs at a moment of weakness
for the GOG and the governing FRG:

-- GOG intervention to save another failed bank (supposedly
to protect cronies) and continued efforts to pay off the
ex-PACs (former civil defense patrols whose votes the FRG
wants) contrast with its inability to meet teachers' demands.

-- The GOG seeks to stay in the good graces of the IMF, in
large part so it can attract more foreign bond buyers
(proceeds will go to projects that help the FRG's 2003
campaign),so its budget options are limited.

-- Just as the GOG's cave-in to ex-PACs in 2002 probably
encouraged the teachers to strike, a perceived capitulation
to the teachers would make it difficult to fend off a
transport strike (due to shrinking profits on bus fares due
to fuel price increases).

-- Portillo has hitherto absented himself from the strike
issue, fueling unfounded speculation and uncertainty.

-- With the election campaign to begin formally in May, there
is no incentive in other parties to oppose the strike.


8. (SBU) While strike leaders now tell us that the GOG's new
flexibility had brought dialogue "back from the brink," deep
divisions over money and many other issues remain on the
bargaining table, including the issue of lost wages for
strikers during this month out of class. Portillo's overdue
intervention to mollify protesters is typical of his crisis
management, and follows a similar move with campesino groups
earlier this week. Unfortunately, Portillo's history of
dealing with protests by announcing half-measures and
unfulfilled commitments have deepened skepticism and
prolonged protests to the point where they reach the crisis
point, as in this instance. This strike, which enjoyed broad
popular support, could prove the most politically costly to
Portillo and the FRG, alienating left-leaning teachers who
help shape public opinion in the provinces.


9. (SBU) While a major inconvenience to travelers and
serious drain on commercial activity, this conflict has not
to date directly threatened U.S. citizens nor has it risen to
a level of a threat to Guatemalan democracy. We will
continue to monitor protests with a view to U.S. citizen
security and other U.S. interests.
HAMILTON