FEBRUARY 25 DINNER WITH PRESIDENT PORTILLO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 000511

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL CU ELAB PHUM SNAR GT
SUBJECT: FEBRUARY 25 DINNER WITH PRESIDENT PORTILLO


Classified By: JOHN R. HAMILTON for reason 1.5(b)

Subject: February 25 Dinner with President Portillo


1. (S) Summary: In a one-on-one dinner, President Portillo
committed to making his decision on the UNHRC Cuba issue "in
a calm moment," promised to energize his Labor ministry on
issues of labor justice, issued instructions to his
Agriculture Minister (by phone during dinner) to get the
Mediterranean Fruit fly program moving, sounded positive (not
altogether convincingly) on the proposal to create a
commission to investigate clandestine groups, and discussed
drug issues extensively. He said General Rios Montt appears
determined to be the FRG presidential candidate and gave an
inside account of the state of play on the month-long
teachers, strike that shut down Guatemala's ports and
international airport February 25. End summary.


2. (S) The dinner was in Portillo's home, at his invitation.
The meeting took place against a backdrop of Portillo having
been absent from public view for the better part of a month,
generating rumors that he has either effectively abdicated
his responsibilities for governing to Vice President Reyes or
that he has been on a drinking binge. Portillo was sober,
and looked well, however, and well informed on all the issues
the Ambassador raised. To wit:

Teachers, Strike
--------------

3. (S) Portillo ran down the issues at play knowledgeably:
the government cannot afford the pay raise being demanded, as
it would break the IMF standby agreement. Negotiations,
suspended since February 21, had resumed late in the day
February 25, and had "gone well a much improved atmosphere."
The government had made an extensive presentation on the
state of public finances, to which the teachers had
reportedly listened. Portillo said the government would not
back off on an innovative pilot program of educational reform
that the teachers feel threatened by (the PRONADE program,
which USAID has supported) but felt there were some other
areas of teachers, demands where the government could give
ground. The Ambassador told him that his absence from view
was generating rumors that no one was in charge and had
combined during the day February 25, when ports, border and
international airport were shut down, to produce a sense that
events were spinning out of control. Portillo said he
recognized the need to surface soon, commenting that he had
almost done so the weekend before, before reconsidering when
the negotiations took a bad turn.

Drugs
--------------

4. (S) The Ambassador briefed the President on the state of
the Embassy,s engagement on narcotics issues with the
Guatemalan team headed by Foreign Minister Gutierrez. This
produced nothing new, but Portillo showed himself to be well
briefed by Gutierrez and engaged. He was still pushing his
idea of ceding at least partial control of Guatemalan ports
to U.S. authorities; the Ambassador encouraged him to
consider a port concession, in which he showed interest.
Portillo mentioned that he had spend last weekend in Mexico
with the Mexican Attorney General, who agreed to train a
first tranche of 25 civilian intelligence agents as part of
a long-term plan to supplant military intelligence.

Labor issues
--------------

5. (S) The Ambassador said the USG would decide on/about
April 15 whether to accept an AFL-CIO GSP labor petition. He
said the key issues are several unresolved cases of murder
against labor leaders, severe backlogs in the system of labor
justice, and the inability of the system of labor justice to
enforce its decisions to impose fines and to order workers
illegally fired to be rehired. Portillo said he would get on
his Labor Minister to address these areas.

Clandestine Groups Investigation
--------------

6. (S) Portillo said he had invited Human Rights Watch
director for the Americas Jose Miguel Vivanco to facilitate
agreement on a proposal to stand up a mixed commission to
investigate so-called clandestine groups because of
Vivanco,s demonstrated probity and commitment to human
rights. He expected to receive a proposal from Vivanco
momentarily and said he would "make it his own." He also
said he had that day signed a letter giving the Human Rights
Ombudsman (the official sponsor of the proposal) a response,
thus meeting a February 28 deadline that the Ombudsman has
made public. The proposal would respond more on process than
it would on substance, he admitted. At the Ambassador,s
suggestion, he said he would make personal contact with the
Ombudsman to see if they could overcome mutual mistrust.

Cuba
--------------

7. (S) The Ambassador asked, "what in the world is going on
with Cuba?" alluding thus to the bizarre admiration that the
normally rightist Vice President Reyes expressed for the
Cuban system on returning from a weeklong visit to Havana.
Portillo said "two things: resentment over de-certification
and the impression that the U.S. is going all out to prevent
a Rios Montt presidency." The view is the (ruling) FRG is
that "we gave the U.S. loyal support (on Cuba) and this is
how they repay us." The Ambassador replied that pique is
exactly what it looks like and that that is not a posture for
a serious government to be caught in. Is Guatemala, he
asked, really going to throw away the hard-earned respect it
won for taking the right stand on a human rights issue of
real importance because of resentment over unrelated issues?
Explaining our position on the Rios Montt candidacy (that
Rios Montt,s reputation is such that bilateral relations
would become unmanageable if he were elected and that the FRG
should know this in advance of making a decision on its
candidate),the Ambassador asked if it would help for him to
engage senior FRG congressional leaders directly. Portillo
said no, to leave the issue to him and FM Gutierrez,
promising that they would make a considered decision "when
things calm down." The Ambassador said that, out of
consideration for the political difficulties it could
generate, we would not be pressing the GOG to co-sponsor the
Cuban resolution, but that we wanted a "yes" vote. In
response, Portillo was officially non-committal but the body
language and tone were more encouraging than we had expected.

Moscamed Go-ahead
--------------

8. (S) The Ambassador briefed Portillo on the delay in the
startup in this year,s spraying of the Mediterranean fruit
fly bait (an insecticide),expecting that he would have to
lay out the facts in some detail. Portillo was up to date on
this issue, too, however, commenting that it had been
discussed in a cabinet meeting the day before. A bit for
show, but hopefully for real, Portillo phoned his Agriculture
Minister on the spot, giving him instructions to &cut
through the BS, and get the program moving.8 The AG
minister could be heard saying "si senor Presidente."
Comment: We'll see.


9. (S) Meeting of Central American Presidents with the
President: Portillo confirmed that an April 11 date works
just fine for him.

Politics and personalities
--------------

10. (S) Portillo is convinced that Rios Montt will seek to
run. Whether he will succeed is another question, but his
intention to be President is genuine. Rios Montt has told
me, Portillo laughed, that he is not about to repeat the
"Portillo experience," by which he meant that creating
another president who then asserts his independence.
Portillo said that he feels a lot of respect, affection and
gratitude toward Rios Montt, who is more flexible, moderate
and more of a democrat than generally believed. &It is his
wife and daughter who are the authoritarians,8 Portillo
said, recalling how the two of them drew up the cabinet that
they wanted him to name five days before he took office.
Life with the two Rios Montt women has been an ordeal, he
said.


11. (S) Inserting a caveat to the forgoing, however, Portillo
said that Rios Montt is impetuous, and conceivably could, for
reasons of health and general fatigue, decide suddenly not
run. But he repeated that all signs point toward a Rios
Montt candidacy.


12. (S) Comment: In ending the evening, Portillo expressed
interest in getting together informally every two to three
weeks. That may amount to too much of a good thing, but the
Ambassador is on the hook to host the next such occasion.


HAMILTON