MANPADS THREAT CONSIDERED MINOR IN GUATEMALA

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 000427

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/11/2013
TAGS: MCAP PTER ETTC GT PARMS
SUBJECT: MANPADS THREAT CONSIDERED MINOR IN GUATEMALA

REF: STATE 38880

Classified By: Robert E. Copley for reason 1.5 (d).


1. (C) The information below is keyed by paragraph number
to reftel questions.

Paragraph 7. General Information: To our knowledge, the
Government of Guatemala (GOG) does not possess MANPADS.
However, black and gray arms markets exist in Guatemala and
exotic weapons systems are said to occasionally move
through them. Given the involvement of a Guatemala-based
arms dealer in the recent diversion of Nicaraguan assault
rifles to Colombian rebels and rumors of surplus MANPADS in
the region due to internal conflicts, we cannot rule out
the possibility that a very small number of MANPADS may be
held or obtained by non-state groups in Guatemala.

Paragraph 8. Government Cooperation: The GOG can be
expected to cooperate in the effort to control MANPADS,
especially if we can provide it with specific information
about the existence of such weapons. Guatemala's export
control regulations would technically prohibit transfers
but enforcement mechanism are inadequate and further
limited by rampant corruption at all levels of the GOG.

Paragraph 9. Feasible Arguments: The GOG will be receptive
to the need for responsible action against the MANPADS
threat and will appreciate the magnitude of liability if a
successful MANPADS attack were to be traced to its failure
to take action. Guatemala does not have a state-sponsored
air carrier, but depends heavily on tourism for foreign
exchange earnings.

Paragraph 10. Financial Incentives: Not applicable since
Guatemala does not have an official MANPADS stockpile to be
destroyed.

Paragraph 11. Other Incentives: The bilateral relationship
is currently more fluid than usual. This is an election
year and Guatemala was recently decertified for lack of
cooperation against narcotics. Some, but not all, parts of
the GOG are anxious to cooperate with the USG. The GOG
faces large and growing internal dissent which will tend to
focus its attention on elections above all else.

Paragraph 12. Government Contacts and Engagement
Activities: The Ministers of Defense, Interior, and
Foreign Relations are the appropriate officials to contact
regarding this initiative. Guatemala has appointed an
Inter-Institutional Coordinator for Security, roughly
equivalent to a Terrorism Czar. The May 2003 Special
Conference on Security in Mexico would be an excellent
venue for approaching Guatemalan officials on this issue.
Hamilton