EMBASSY ELECTION OBSERVATION: DISORGANIZATION, NOT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 GUATEMALA 002942

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID KDEM GT
SUBJECT: EMBASSY ELECTION OBSERVATION: DISORGANIZATION, NOT
VIOLENCE, THE REAL PROBLEM



1. Summary: Guatemalans refused to be intimidated by
predictions of violence and fraud, and braved the
disorganized election process to vote in record numbers.
Thirty-nine Embassy observers of the November 9 national
elections witnessed this display of democratic participation
by Guatemalans who turned out in droves, despite rampant
predictions of electoral violence and fraud. The turnout
(58% est.) is all the more impressive in light of
disorganization in the voter registration system, which
caused some voters outside the capital to wait up to 10 hours
to cast their ballots; the average wait in the capital was
closer to two hours. Separating voters by those who updated
their registration caused confusion nationwide, and had the
perverse effect of adding to the wait for those voters who
had gone to the trouble to update their voting information.
Poorly planned line management, compounded by poor procedures
to address problems encountered on voting day, caused many
voters outside the capital to become frustrated; it also
disenfranchised a number of intending voters, who gave up
before voting. EmbOffs did not witness the widespread fraud
and violence that many Guatemalans had feared. Instead,
administrative difficulties at the voting booths were the
major impediments to voting. End Summary.

Background: Embassy Participation in OAS Observation
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2. Thirty-nine Embassy officers observed the Guatemalan
elections, under the umbrella of the OAS Election Observation
Mission. The Embassy sent five teams to observe the
electoral process outside the capital and to participate in
the OAS quick count. Those teams visited the demographically
and geographically diverse provinces of San Marcos,
Esquintla, Alta Verapaz, El Progresso, Jutiapa, Sacatepequez,
and Chimaltenango. Twenty other Embassy observers, including
three EmbOffs from Embassy San Salvador, observed the
elections in and around Guatemala City and in the indigenous
communities west of Guatemala City. RSO provided security
for the team which visited Escuintla province, where
electoral violence was expected in several municipalities.
On Election Day and at an election observation post-mortem
held November 12, Embassy election observers shared their
impressions, which included common themes and also stark
contrasts particular to the sites they visited.

Bad Planning/Implementation, Esp. Outside the Capital
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3. While most voting stations opened on time on Election
Day, the first and strongest impression that struck our
observers was of disorganization. The Supreme Electoral
Tribunal (TSE),responsible for organization and training of
election volunteers, set up separate voting tables for voters
who had and had not updated their registration. However,
each voting table was designed to receive 600 registered
voters. As a result, the lines at tables for non-updated
voters were short, with only 150-200 people showing up in the
course of the day, while the lines at the updated voter
tables often exceeded 500. In addition, many voters did not
appear in the electoral register due to computer problems
with the lists. These voters were required to seek
verification of their status from local TSE representatives,
which were unprepared to deal with these requests
expeditiously. Most of our observers reported a generally
calm and even festive atmosphere. Others noted a more tense
atmosphere, with voters yelling at the poll workers and
expressing frustration over long lines. Line cutters were
roundly rebuffed (real democracy in the making!). Throughout
the country, partitioned voting stations where up to four
voters could mark their ballots at one time were too few in
number and had no screens to ensure privacy.


4. Outside the capital, polling stations seemed adequately
supplied but often were not adequately marked. Signs were
often not posted in a central or prominent location, and were
difficult to follow and impossible to understand by
illiterate persons. In some instances government officials
assigned to assist voters were themselves illiterate. There
was significant confusion about how to apply the indelible
ink. Some election officials helpfully provided tissues to
wipe the ink off voter's fingers immediately after
application. Others apparently did not shake the bottle, and
our observers and media reported complaints that the ink, as
a result, did not work. Due to confusion and lack of
guidance, voters often waited several hours in one line to
learn that they were not on the list at the table, were sent
to other tables where their names did not appear, and finally
were sent to the TSE office, where long lines and few
personnel added further to the wait. Some who put up with
this returned to the voting booth only to find it closed
after 6:00 p.m. EmbOffs estimate that in some remote towns,
up to 25% of voters left or could not vote because of the
disorganization.


5. In Guatemala City, by contrast, most voting places
finished processing long lines by closing time. At a few
sites, remaining voters were permitted to stay to vote after
6:00 p.m. but the doors were closed to new voters. The trend
throughout the city was that the lines and confusion were
much less than in the countryside, and although there were
still waits of several hours, all voters were able to cast
their ballots. Although performance varied, in general
Embassy observers found much higher levels of organization at
the capital's polling stations, which were generally larger,
with between four and 30 voting tables each. Some included
marimba bands and the atmosphere, initially tense as long
lines formed early, became more festive and relaxed as the
lines diminished. International and domestic observers from
the OAS, EU, University of San Carlos and Human Rights
Ombudsman's office were present in most capital voting
stations. Public Ministry personnel were also visible at
many voting stations in the capital. Most voting tables in
the capital were also being observed by party representatives
of the five larger political parties, who were generally
cooperative at the tables we observed. TSE officials at one
site complained of delays associated with elderly voters who
took time at the voting tables to mark their ballots.
Elsewhere, Embassy observers noticed that elderly and
handicapped voters were allowed to pass to the front of the
line by organizers.

Violence and Fraud Low, Despite Fears
--------------


6. Though initial tension and growing frustration with the
voting process was apparent through the course of election
day, our observers did not witness any violence. One of our
observer teams, visiting Purhula, Baja Verapaz province, left
the voting station at 6:00 p.m. on the advice of local
police, who could not guarantee security. Some voters there
had begun drinking (despite the ban on alcohol sales) after a
long and frustrating day waiting to vote.


7. Our observers did not witness fraud directly; however,
the general disorganization of the voting process fed
conspiracy theories and allegations of fraud against the FRG.
We heard hearsay reports of vote-buying by the FRG in the
towns of Rodeo, San Marcos and Villanueva, Guatemala
province. In Rodeo, political parties traded accusations of
selling beer and facilitating the use of false identification
cards ("cedulas"). A Christian Democratic Party mayoral
candidate in Rodeo claimed to have received a death threat
from the Progressive Liberator Party.

Big Turnout Makes Wait Longer
--------------


8. Guatemalans refused to be intimidated by predictions of
violence and fraud, and braved the disorganized election
process to vote in record numbers. Observers noted a high
turnout of women and young voters, even in rural areas. Some
voters waited up to 10 hours to vote. Long lines were caused
by the disorganized voting process combined with an
exceptionally high turn out. Lines were so long and closely
packed that one observer saw a line of nearly 100 voters fall
like dominoes after a man in the back of the line tripped;
the last man fell face first onto the voting table. Outside
the capital, where voting peaked between 9 a.m. and 2 p.m. it
was common to hear stories of people leaving their homes
early in the morning only to wait all day to vote. In the
town of Guanaguazapa, Escuintla province, a man told our
observers he had left his house at 5:00 a.m., walked 6 miles
to vote at the 7:00 a.m. opening, and still had not voted as
of 2:00 p.m. At 10:30 a.m. in the town of Puerto San Jose,
Escuintla, voters told us "we have moved 6 meters in 3
hours." In El Progreso, one of our observers saw an elderly
blind person vote after waiting for 3 hours in oppressive
heat. A man we spoke to in Iztapa, Escuintla province, told
us he had entered the line knowing that it was going to take
him a minimum of 4 hours before he would be able to cast his
ballot.

Comment
--------------


9. Despite these hardships, voters across the country voted
in record numbers, reflecting a ground swell of participation
in this controversial election. In hindsight, the
pre-election hype over possible violence and electoral fraud
may have distracted from planning for what turned out to be
the true culprit on election day: the disorganization of the
voting process. Our observers have some common-sense
suggestions and the OAS has already made recommendations
based on its observation for fixes to the TSE. With any
luck, the second round of voting, on December 28 to select a
president and vice president, will go more smoothly.
HAMILTON