INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION CONTRIBUTES TO DECLINE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002937

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR EAID GT
SUBJECT: INTERNATIONAL OBSERVATION CONTRIBUTES TO DECLINE
IN ELECTORAL VIOLENCE



1. Summary: Protests, some violent, continue in communities
where dissatisfaction with the mayoral election results is
ongoing, but violence overall is much decreased from the 1999
elections. Allegations of 29 "political" murders during the
electoral campaign were disputed by international observers
who placed the figure at two to five. Even in these, the
motives were local and personal, though triggerd by politics.
Widespread fears of violence, bred by campaign incidents,
did not materialize. Ballot boxes were burned in a few rural
towns by crowds unhappy that they were denied the right to
vote after standing in line for many hours. The presence of
large numbers of international observers, especially in
communities where violence was widely anticipated,
contributed to a relatively peaceful election (by Guatemalan
standards). End Summary.

Heat and Poor Logistics Produce Isolated Violence on Election
Day
--------------


2. While protests against the election results continue in
some rural communities, the 20 cases reported so far in the
2003 elections is significantly down from the 38 cases
reported in 1999. Furthermore, in 1999 the violence extended
to relatively urban areas (like Chinautla and Santa Lucia
Cotzumalguapa),and in 2003 it has been limited solely to
remote villages. Most of the disturbances took place along
Guatemala's steamy south coast, in areas where temperatures
soared as thousands stood in excruciatingly long lines.
Ballots in 3 communities (El Quetzal, Cuyotenango and San
Sebastian) were burned when voters learned, after waiting in
line for up to seven hours, that they were not registered to
vote. Many voters who discovered they had been inadvertently
excluded from the registry were able to correct the error at
the local Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE) office and get
back in line, but in some communities frustrations boiled
over. In El Estor, Izabal, voters broke into the TSE office,
and in Chisec, Alta Verapaz, voters broke down doors and
windows to get into a voting center. In Chajul, Quiche, a
voting center opened late, resulting in a stampede that left
2 dead and 10 injured.

UNE Candidate Shot
--------------

3. Dr. Rolando Morales, a Congressional candidate for the
center-left UNE party, underwent surgery and is in stable
condition after being shot twice by three armed men outside
his home in a crime-infested neighborhood of Guatemala City,
early in the morning on election day. Initial reports
indicated that the motive of the assault may have been
robbery (the view of a top UNE official),but Morales' wife
has told the media that she believes the motive was political
as her husband was carrying nothing of value. The incident
is under investigation.

Campaign Violence Bred Unrealized Fears of Election Day
Violence
--------------

4. Press reports claiming 29 people had been killed in
pre-election violence and fears that the FRG would stage
violent protests in the event they lost (like they did on
July 24-25) fueled concerns that the potential for violence
on election day was high. MINUGUA and the OAS investigated
reports of pre-electoral violence and concluded that most of
the murders were not related to the elections. MINUGUA
believes that five of the murders could have been related to
the election campaign, and the OAS cited two. The Washington
Office on Latin America issued a report on the election
saying that most of the murders had been the result of common
crime, a judgement we agree with. Even in those cases where
politics clearly was a factor, the circumstances were local
and personal. For example, an FRG supporter shot and killed
an young opposition activist who was defacing FRG political
posters.

Reports of Post-electoral Violence
--------------

5. Protests against the results of local elections continue
as results are still being counted. No one party or civic
association has a monopoly on the often violent protests at
the municipal level so far. In Playa Grande, Quiche, crowds
refused to accept the URNG's victory in the Mayor's race and
continue to stage public protests. In Tamahu, Alta Verapaz,
a mob burned down the house of the re-elected FRG mayor and
clashed with police, resulting in 4 persons injured.
Siquinala and Masagua, both in Esquintla Department, report
non-violent demonstrations by GANA and Unionista supporters
against the outcomes in mayor's races there. In La Gomera
(also in Escuintla Department) GANA supporters reportedly
burned down the voting precinct when their mayoral candidate
lost.


6. Comment: Generalized fears that the tense confrontation
that characterized the 2003 elections would result in an
escalation of electoral violence proved unfounded. Election
day was relatively calm and acts of violence affecting voting
tables on election day or after the votes were counted were
less than in 1999. The large presence of international
observers (over 300 on election day) and their presence in
communities where violence was expected doubtless contributed
to reducing mob actions against voting tables.
HAMILTON