Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03GUATEMALA2916
2003-11-13 22:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Guatemala
Cable title:  

FRG CONGRESSMAN COMMENTS ON ELECTORAL DEFEAT

Tags:  PGOV PINR PREL EAID GT 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002916 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL EAID GT
SUBJECT: FRG CONGRESSMAN COMMENTS ON ELECTORAL DEFEAT

REF: GUATEMALA 2889

Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002916

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL EAID GT
SUBJECT: FRG CONGRESSMAN COMMENTS ON ELECTORAL DEFEAT

REF: GUATEMALA 2889

Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: FRG Congressman-elect Antonio Arenales told
the Ambassador on November 13 that the FRG accepts its
electoral defeat and will not challenge the election results.
The FRG will not endorse a candidate in the second round
elections. Within the party there are those who want the FRG
to play the role of loyal opposition and those who want to
make it difficult for the next government to govern
successfully. It is unclear at this point which of the two
factions will predominate. We will continue to use our
contacts with the FRG to urge them to support the democratic
process in Guatemala, consistent with the values they claim
to uphold. End summary.


2. (C) In a breakfast with the Ambassador, DCM and PolCouns
on November 13, FRG Congressman-elect and soon-to-be former
Ambassador to the U.S. Antonio Arenales said that the FRG
accepts its defeat in the November 9 presidential elections
and will not challenge the results (Note: There were reports
on November 12, per reftel, that the FRG might lodge a legal
challenge. End note). He said some in the party (including
himself) expected the loss of the presidential election, but
that others are disappointed and "have their swords drawn" to
continue the political confrontation that has characterized
the past four years. Arenales suggested that the party's
national leaders (including Zury Rios and Aristides Crespo)
are beginning to focus on the FRG's legislative strategy,
after winning the largest single party bloc in Congress,
while some of the leaders in rural areas are not yet
reconciled to the party's presidential defeat. He said
General Rios Montt himself is quite at peace ("tranquilo")
about the loss, but suggested the General's wife and daughter
are less so. Arenales said some in the party believe the FRG
will be better positioned in the next election if the
government that takes office on January 14, 2004 is a
failure, and they are arguing for a frontal opposition to the
new government to ensure it is not a success. He urged us to
weigh-in with our other FRG contacts to convince them of the

wisdom of not waging an opposition that could make Guatemala
ungovernable.


3. (C) Arenales said the FRG would not endorse a candidate in
the second round. He said that if the FRG picked wrong and
endorsed the loser, there would be no space for them to reach
compromises with the new government.


4. (C) Arenales believes that there is space for the FRG to
work with the new government, whoever is elected on December
28, on very concrete issues where there is a mutual interest.
He is not sanguine, however, that the new government will
reach out to the FRG and fears they may start the
relationship off with a confrontation. He said that if the
new government tries to repeal the minimum wage raise decreed
by President Portillo following the FRG's electoral defeat,
it provoke a confrontation with the FRG from the start and
make it difficult to generate momentum for cooperation.
(Note: On November 11, President Portillo decreed the largest
minimum wage increase of his presidency -- 21% for
agricultural workers, 16% for all others. The increase was
announced after it was clear that the FRG would not inherit
the huge expense this will represent for the national budget,
and is widely viewed as the FRG's parting shot at the new
government and the private sector. End note).


5. (C) Arenales said many in the FRG blame President
Portillo's corruption for the party's electoral defeat, and
they would like to see him and his Private Secretary, Julio
Giron, behind bars. He added that Vice Presidential
candidate Edin Barrientos is not a member of the FRG's inner
circle and is already effectively marginalized from the
party's decision making. More surprisingly, he said that
Vice President Reyes Lopez has lost his standing with the FRG
leadership, and, along with his son, Juan Francisco Reyes
Wyld, has been exiled to the Central American Parliament,
where they will enjoy immunity (from possible new "Panama
Connection" investigations),but have no influence.


6. (C) Arenales expressed concern that Guatemala would become
"ungovernable" if Alvaro Colom wins the presidency in
December, arguing that his small base in Congress (roughly
20%),the lack of cohesion of his diverse team, and his
alleged ties to "shady businessmen" (a common, but
unsubstantiated, rumor) would represent a serious handicap
from the start. He said that Berger and his CACIF allies are
at least "rational and predictable" (Note: Conventional
wisdom is that the FRG favors a Colom victory, as they
believe Colom would pursue the FRG corruption in the courts
with less vigor than a CACIF-backed Berger government.
Arenales' professed preference for Berger may come from his
own strong pro-military, anti-left views, which make the
center-left Colom look like the red menace. End note).

7. (C) Comment: The FRG is slowly getting used to its
overwhelming defeat in the November 9 elections, and is
starting to look at how it can use its large presence in
Congress and its control of a large number of municipalities
to protect its interests during the next four years. It is
too soon to tell if the FRG will play the role of loyal
opposition or spoiler, and there are clearly forces within
the party pulling in both directions. We will continue to
use all contacts with the FRG to urge it to play a role
consistent with the democratic values it claims to represent.
HAMILTON