BERGER AND COLOM BEGIN SECOND ROUND CAMPAIGN; FRG

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002889

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR EAID PHUM GT
SUBJECT: BERGER AND COLOM BEGIN SECOND ROUND CAMPAIGN; FRG
DOES WELL IN CONGRESS AND MUNICIPALITIES


Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Guatemalan voters turned out in
history-making numbers on November 9 to say "no" to General
Rios Montt's presidential bid, but gave his FRG a large bloc
in Congress and a majority of the municipalities.
Preliminary vote results, with 94% of tables counted, give
Berger 35% of the vote, followed by Colom with 27% and Rios
Montt with 19%. The FRG has reacted to its defeat with
relative silence, though two party leaders said that the FRG
would concentrate its efforts on the legislative and
municipal fronts in expectation of the 2007 elections.
Challenges to the vote are expected in some municipalities,
and the FRG is talking about filing an injunction against the
results in Guatemala City, although we expect it realizes a
challenge would not prosper. Berger and Colom have already
begun the second round campaign. There is a palpable sense
of relief throughout Guatemalan society that the General is
no longer a contender. End summary.

The Presidential Vote
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2. (U) With 94.4% of the votes counted, GANA coalition
candidate Oscar Berger consolidated his hold on first place
in Guatemala's November 9 presidential election with 34.6% of
the vote. Alvaro Colom, who will face off against Berger in
a runoff election on December 28, received 26.5%. FRG
candidate Efrain Rios Montt came in a distant third with
19.2% of the vote, and PAN candidate Leonel Lopez received
8.3%. Berger was the big winner in Guatemala City (49%),but
the provinces were split with Colom and Rios Montt taking
much of the indigenous western highlands, and Berger and
Colom splitting the Spanish-speaking provinces of the south
coast and eastern Guatemala.

Record Voter Turnout
--------------

3. (SBU) Preliminary reports indicate that 58% of registered
voters cast a ballot on November 9. Since many intending
voters were either discouraged by the long lines or were not
able to vote because of problems with the voter registry,
actual voter turnout was even higher. Voter turnout only
reached 46.2% in 1999 and 53.3% in 1995. The high voter
turnout in this election (coupled with the low vote for the
FRG) is widely interpreted as motivated by voters'
determination to punish the FRG for its corruption and poor
performance on the economy and crime during its four years in
office. The elections will have to be held again in eight
small municipalities where ballots were burned on election
day. The results of those new elections will affect only
their own municipal races.

FRG Takes First Place in Congress and Municipal Elections
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4. (U) Preliminary results show the FRG winning 42 seats in
Congress (out of 158),giving it the single largest bloc.
The GANA coalition (made of three parties) won 49 seats, but
it is not clear if these parties will eventually form one
bloc, as in some Departments the GANA parties ran competing
candidates. UNE (the party of second place presidential
candidate Alvaro Colom) won 33 seats, followed by
center-right parties PAN with 16 seats and Unionistas with 6.
The far left party ANN expanded its presence to 6
legislators at the expense of the far left URNG, which lost
all but two of its seats. Preliminary vote counts also show
the FRG winning 37% of the mayoral races, compared to 25% for
the GANA coalition and 11% for UNE. The legislative and
municipal vote counts are still preliminary, and there may be
some variation once the vote counts are final.

FRG Reaction to Their Electoral Defeat
--------------

5. (SBU) The FRG has been relatively silent following the
announcement of the overwhelming defeat of its presidential
candidate. Rios Montt himself has not spoken. Vice
Presidential candidate Edin Barrientos told reporters that
the FRG will not comment until the final votes are counted,
but said the FRG would respect the will of the voters.
Congressional majority leader Aristides Crespo told reporters
that the FRG would continue to be an important political
force in the country, and would use its large bloc in
Congress to "defend the interests of the people."
Congressman Haroldo Quej told reporters that the FRG is
considering the possibility of filing an injunction against
the election results in Guatemala City, alleging that many
FRG voters were not allowed to vote because of "manipulation
of the voter registration list," but the FRG has not
initiated any action so far (Note: injunctions are filed in
all Guatemalan elections against some results, especially at
the municipal level, but these tend to be pro forma ways of
objecting to the outcome, and rarely result in recounts. End
note).

6. (C) FRG leaders delayed responding to our early attempts
to meet with them to gauge their reaction to the elections;
however, we will be meeting with Zury Rios, Antonio Arenales
and Minister of Finance Eduardo Weymann on November 13.

TSE Congratulates Itself, While Editorials Criticize it

SIPDIS
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7. (U) President of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE)
Bolanos held a press conference on November 10 to say that
the TSE was "profoundly pleased" with the organization and
carrying out of the elections. Editorials in all the
newspapers uniformly criticized the TSE for poor planning,
which led to eight-hour long lines at many tables, leading
many intending voters to go home without voting. They also
criticized the TSE for the large number of errors in the
voter registration list and problems in the application of
the indelible ink (many voting table officials had tissue on
hand to enable voters to dry their fingers, and this resulted
in stains that were barely noticeable).

Berger and Colom Begin Their Second Round Campaigns
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8. (U) With seven weeks left before the second round
election, GANA candidate Berger and UNE candidate Colom have
already begun their second round campaigns. Colom met with
representatives of the nine losing small parties in an
attempt to win their support in the second round. A smear
campaign has already begun against Colom, through the media
and e-mails, accusing him of being an alcoholic and of being
an ally of the FRG.

Comment:
--------------

9. (C) There is a palpable sense of relief throughout
Guatemalan society that the elections were held with a
minimum of violence and that General Rios Montt will not be a
contender in the second round. The 2003 elections put an end
to 20 years of Rios Montt's pivotal role in Guatemalan
politics. The large margin between second place candidate
Colom and third place Rios Montt all but slammed the door on
any intentions the FRG might have had to contest the national
results. The results of the Congressional and municipal
elections ensure that the FRG will remain an important
political force in Guatemala and preserve its space for the
2007 elections, but it will not have the strength on its own
to block legislative initiatives of the new government that
require a two-thirds majority. Berger and Colom will both
need the legislative support of the other to govern Guatemala
after January 14, 2004, and we are using our initial,
post-election contacts with both to impress upon them the
need to run a clean second round campaign that preserves
their ability to work with each other after the final
election.
HAMILTON