BERGER AND COLOM WIN FIRST ROUND OF GUATEMALAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L GUATEMALA 002871

SIPDIS

EMBASSY SAN JOSE FOR WHA/DAS DAN FISK

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/10/2013
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM EAID GT
SUBJECT: BERGER AND COLOM WIN FIRST ROUND OF GUATEMALAN
ELECTIONS

Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (U) At 0630 hrs local time on November 10, the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal announced preliminary results of the
national elections. With 21% of voting tables reporting,
GANA presidential candidate Oscar Berger is ahead with 47.7%
of the vote, followed by UNE candidate Alvaro Colom with
26.4%. FRG candidate Efrain Rios Montt came in third with
11.2%. Berger won overwhelmingly in Guatemala City, and
Colom was the favorite in the Mayan indigenous provinces of
western Guatemala. These early results are heavily
urban-weighted and may well change as more vote counts come
in from rural areas.


2. (U) With 97% of tables in the Department of Guatemala
reporting, former Mayor of Guatemala City Oscar Berger
received 49% of the vote. UNE candidate Colom received 27%
and FRG candidate Rios Montt received 11%. Former President
Alvaro Arzu is ahead for Mayor of Guatemala City with 34% of
the vote, followed by GANA candidate Jorge Briz with 24% and
FRG candidate Luis Rabbe with 18%.


3. (C) The OAS quick count (which was given to us against the
instructions of the EOM chief -- please protect) also ranked
Berger and Colom as the two candidates who would advance to
the second round, but gave them different percentages, with
GANA candidate Berger obtaining 36.3%, UNE's Colom drawing
26.5% and FRG candidate Rios Montt trailing with 18.0% of the
vote. The domestic observation mission Mirador Electoral
quick count (also given to us in strict confidence against
Mirador's decision to release only to the TSE -- please
protect) shows similar trends, with Berger getting 35.7% of
the vote, followed by Colom with 27.5% and the FRG with
17.8%. Once the TSE has more results from rural areas, we
expect the final vote count results to be closer to the quick
count results.


4. (U) The OAS Election Observation Mission issued a press
statement in the early hours of November 10 noting that the
elections were characterized by significant citizen
participation, despite problems with the organization and
administration of the elections. It said the most salient
observation on the election was "the firm will of the
population to strengthen the country's institutionality
through the democratic mechanisms that are promoted and
defended by the international community." The OAS laments
the isolated acts of violence that marred the elections in
some communities, and notes that the massive voter turnout
overwhelmed the logistical and organizational arrangements to
allow citizens to vote. No evaluation is made on the results
of the election, saying that the OAS will withhold judgment
until the Supreme Electoral Tribunal has spoken and any
challenges are presented. The OAS statement closes by
"highlighting the committed attitude of the voters, who went
to the polls in massive numbers, in a clear demonstration of
the commitment of the Guatemalan people with democracy. This
is even more significant, taking into account the violence
and political confrontation that have accompanied this
process since the convocation of elections."


5. (C) Privately, and although they are withholding final
judgment for the moment, none of the ranking OAS, EU or
Mirador Electoral officials expect logistical problems or
problems of violence in some localities to change the
preliminary results as reported above.


6. (U) It is also worth noting that the fears of Guatemala's
opposition press and civil society -- that gangs tied to the
ruling FRG would engage in violence to keep the vote down;
that ex-PACs would block major highways and access to voting
centers; that the FRG would tie up access to public
transportation; to name just the most salient conspiracy
theories -- did not come to pass.
HAMILTON