VOTERS IN JALAPA SET TO CAST BALLOTS FOR "ANYBODY

UNCLAS GUATEMALA 002802

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM GT
SUBJECT: VOTERS IN JALAPA SET TO CAST BALLOTS FOR "ANYBODY
BUT RIOS MONTT"



1. Summary: Man-on-the-street interviews with voters in the
Department of Jalapa suggest a strong backlash against the
ruling FRG party and its candidate Efrain Rios Montt in the
November 9 election. Jalapa voted overwhelmingly for the FRG
in the past two elections, but respondents said the current
FRG government is doing a bad job, and Jalapanecos are poised
to throw them out. There was little enthusiasm expressed for
either GANA candidate Berger or UNE candidate Colom, but most
respondents said they would vote for Berger as he is the
candidate best positioned to unseat the FRG. The local
representative of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal said he
expects the elections will be pulled off without fraud or
violence in much of the department, but said one municipality
is bracing for protests after the results are known. End
Summary


2. While the Department of Jalapa is only about 60 miles east
of Guatemala City, it is a rural area with a reputation as a
cowboy town. Jalapa represents less than 3% of the Guatemalan
electorate, but its vote results in the last national
election virtually mirrored national results. As in other
areas of the country that strongly supported Rios Montt is
the past two elections, voters in Jalapa are increasingly
turning to other parties.


3. On October 30, PolCouns, ConOff and IM specialist visited
the country seat of Jalapa and Sansare, a small town in the
same department, to meet with representatives of the Supreme
Electoral Tribunal (TSE),the Supreme Electoral Council for
the Department, and to get the viewpoints on the elections of
the people in the streets. The TSE workers said they were
preparing for a large voter turn-out; this was supported by
the fact that 97% of the people interviewed informally said
that they would vote on November 9th. The TSE workers claimed
all of the pieces were in place for a smooth election day.
According to them, problems with the electoral registry would
be no worse than in past years.


4. The TSE reps downplayed fears of election-day violence
overall, but were unified in citing one exception: San Luis
Jilotepeque, a small mountain town with a history of election
day violence. In 1995, the losing mayoral candidate and his
supporters took over the town's municipal building the day
after the election, alleging that they had been deprived of
victory by fraud. That same candidate is running again this
year, and is now a member of the FRG. The TSE reps told us he
has threatened similar actions this year if he does not win.
Compounding the issue are racial tensions in the town. The
FRG candidate is an indigenous Mayan, running against a
"ladino," which is seen by some observers as cause of more
election run-up tensions. EU observers have already visited
San Luis Jilotepeque and plan to be there on election day.


5. Man-on-the-street interviews conducted in Sansare and
Jalapa revealed that voters were not enthusiastic about any
of the candidates, but were determined to remove the FRG from
power. Only two respondents (roughly 5% of the sample) said
they would cast a ballot for FRG candidate Rios Montt.
Several people said they were going to vote for "anybody but
Rios Montt." Oscar Berger (GANA) appealed to most of the
people, garnering 53% in the informal poll. Alvaro Colom
(UNE) followed with 25%; Leonel Lopez Rodas (PAN) got 9%.


6. 53% of the respondents cited combating crime and
insecurity as the greatest challenge for the next party in
power. 38% said that unemployment was the greatest problem
currently facing the country. People also mentioned the
economy, and lack of quality education and/or health care as
issues that most concerned them.


7. Interestingly, the majority of the people on the street
(62%) said that they thought this election would be more
transparent, and have less fraud than in elections past. This
perception, along with the fact that 97% of the people
interviewed vowed to vote, point to probable high voter
turn-out in Jalapa.
HAMILTON