GUATEMALAN ELECTION UPDATE: ONE WEEK TO BALLOTING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002794

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2013
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR KDEM EAID GT OAS
SUBJECT: GUATEMALAN ELECTION UPDATE: ONE WEEK TO BALLOTING

REF: A. GUATEMALA 2769


B. GUATEMALA 2705

Classified By: PolCouns David Lindwall for reason 1.5 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Polls show voter preferences largely
unchanged, with Berger ahead with 41%, followed by Colom
(22.3%) and Rios Montt (13.3%). Informal polling conducted
by Embassy in the countryside supports these results. The
OAS and EU Observer Missions say the TSE has addressed
problems with the voter registration list ("padron")
effectively by setting up special tables for "observed votes"
at all polling places. There is a growing concern of ours,
shared by the EU Ambassadors, that continuing (and
politically motivated) press reports publicizing rumors of
potential fraud and violence will undermine the credibility
of a relatively good electoral process. The Ambassador met
separately with candidates Lopez Rodas, Rios Montt (reftel)
and Colom to discuss election issues. With only a week left
before the elections, political tensions remain much lower
than their high point in July, but are, as expected, spiking
again in the runup to election day. End summary.

What the Polls Say
--------------

2. (U) A Noguera poll taken October 24-29 showed GANA
candidate Oscar Berger significantly ahead with 41.0% of
voter preferences, up only marginally from September. UNE's
Alvaro Colom rose significantly from 15.9% in September to
22.3% in the final week of October. FRG candidate Rios Montt
also rose slightly from 12.2% to 13.3%. Voters continued to
list violent crime as their most serious concern (46%),
followed by unemployment (40%),the economic situation (25%)
and corruption (13%). Eighty-four percent said they intended
to vote (which would be a record in Guatemala),and 57.9%
said they would never vote for Rios Montt (only 7.9% said
they would never vote for Berger). The poll also suggested
that votes for Congress would be much more divided than the
presidential vote, and that no party is likely to have a
working majority in Congress. Following are the voter
preference percentages:

- voting preferences as a percentage of respondents
- July August September Oct. 24-29
- -------------- --------------
Berger - GANA 30.5 39.6 40.7 41.0
Colom - UNE 12.6 16.7 15.9 22.3
Rios Montt - FRG 10.3 11.5 12.2 13.3
Lopez Rodas - PAN 3.4 4.2 4.9 6.2

OAS and EU Observers Say TSE On-Track
--------------

3. (SBU) The electoral observation missions of the EU and OAS
hosted a meeting for Ambassadors on October 29 in which,
among other things, they noted that the Supreme Electoral
Tribunal (TSE) will set up a special table at each voting
place to receive votes from properly credentialled voters
whose registration is not recorded or is recorded at a
distant voting place. This measure is to ensure that
technical difficulties with the voter registration list
("padron electoral") do not lead to the disenfranchisement of
voters. Regional offices of the TSE have told us that they
have reviewed the voter registration lists for their
departments, and that they do not expect any more problems
than previous years with voters being able to find their
voting places.


4. (SBU) At the same meeting, the EU Ambassadors, normally
outspoken in their fears of election day manipulation by the
FRG, expressed concern instead that the media (largely
anti-FRG) was generating an unfounded sense that there would
be significant violence on election day (an argument we have
attempted to counter through numerous public messages urging
voters to go to the polls),and that this message could
undermine voter participation and the credibility of the
electoral process. All agreed that the TSE was doing a good
job, and that it was above partisan manipulation. And while
violence after the election typically does occur at the local
level here, press headlines warning of the possibility of
election-day violence could scare Guatemalans into staying
home. An AID contractor with significant experience in other
Latin American elections recently noted in his evaluation of
the process in Guatemala that civil society, the opposition
and the media are so determined to keep one of the candidates
(Rios Montt) from winning, that they have lost their
objectivity to the detriment of the electoral process itself.
Their frequent sounding alarm over the potential for
violence on election day will establish their claim to
challenge the electoral outcome in the event the candidate
they oppose makes it into the second round.

Ambassador Meets with Candidates
--------------

5. (C) The Ambassador met at the Residence with PAN
presidential candidate Leonel Lopez Rodas on October 28, FRG
candidate Rios Montt on October 29 (reftel) and UNE candidate
Alvaro Colom on October 31. He had previously met with GANA
candidates Berger and Stein (ref B). Lopez Rodas, who was
accompanied by Congressional candidate Luis Rubio, said that
the PAN did not expect fraud on election day, but said he
does not have confidence that FRG members in remote areas
will respect the outcome of the election. He welcomed the
chance to dialogue with us on bilateral issues, should he
make it into the second round. Lopez Rodas (who has not
broken into double digits in all but his own polls),looked
tired and did not come across as expecting to make it into
the second round. In response to a query from the
Ambassador, Lopez Rodas said that he would ensure that PAN
members do not challenge the election results, should they
lose, by anything but legal means.


6. (C) UNE candidate Alvaro Colom, who was accompanied by
economic policy advisor Fernando Monroy, was upbeat,
recognizing that all the independent polls put him in a
relatively solid second place. Monroy told us that "second
place" status had brought with it significant contributions
from new campaign supporters, and that the party would have
the resources for its final push. Like the other candidates,
Colom expressed confidence about the elections being free and
fair, but qualified it by saying he could not guess how the
FRG would react to a first round defeat. He said that,
should UNE lose in the first round (which he virtually
discounted),he would challenge the results only by legal
means, and then only if it was clear that his loss was the
result of fraud. Pressed by the Ambassador, he pledged to
get the message to his supporters that "taking the streets"
on election night, in the event of a defeat, was
unacceptable. Colom said that organized crime figures were
seeking meetings with him, presumably to offer financial
support, and that he had avoided any contact with them and
instructed his advisors to do the same. Like the other
candidates, Colom said he would welcome a meeting between his
transition team and the Embassy to discuss in more depth the
bilateral agenda in the event he makes it into the second
round.

Comment
--------------

7. (SBU) Despite isolated acts of violence, potentially
related to the elections, political tensions overall are much
reduced from July, although, as one would expect, they are
spiking again in the runup to election day itself. There are
some technical problems with the "padron electoral," but the
international observation missions are satisfied that they
will not result in vote fraud, and the TSE has made provision
to ensure voters are not disenfranchised. The major
candidates have all told us they do not expect fraud to have
an impact on election day, and have pledged to get the word
out to their supporters that post-election violence is
unacceptable. With a week left before balloting, voter
preferences have not shifted significantly. In Guatemala,
surprises are always possible, but so far things look poised
for an orderly election on November 9.
HAMILTON