Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03GUATEMALA2787
2003-10-31 15:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Guatemala
Cable title:  

ELECTION SNAPSHOT #4: CONCERNS IN THE INDIGENOUS

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PINR GT 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002787 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR GT
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT #4: CONCERNS IN THE INDIGENOUS
HIGHLANDS

REF: GUATEMALA 2764

Classified By: Economic Officer Thomas Palaia for reasons 1.5(d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002787

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2013
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR GT
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT #4: CONCERNS IN THE INDIGENOUS
HIGHLANDS

REF: GUATEMALA 2764

Classified By: Economic Officer Thomas Palaia for reasons 1.5(d)


1. (SBU) Summary: EmbOffs visited the indigenous highland
areas of Quetzaltenango and San Jose Poaquil to continue to
meet with local and international election monitoring
organizations and test the pulse of the electorate outside
the capital. Our unscientific polling suggests widespread
frustration with the current government and the belief that
government resources are being used to manipulate voters.
Generally, people expressed faith in the safeguards and
procedures of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal (TSE).
Observers expressed concern with voter manipulation and
intimidation away from the polls. There was also a general
sense of insecurity and doubt regarding the ability and
willingness of the National Police (PNC) to control potential
election related violence. End Summary.

Background
--------------


2. (SBU) Quetzaltenango is Guatemala,s second largest city
with about 150,000 mostly indigenous inhabitants, and the
capital of the Western highland province of the same name.
It is also the only larger Guatemalan city with an indigenous
mayor, Rigoberto Queme, who withdrew from the presidential
race in August. San Jose Poaquil, also largely indigenous,
is a much smaller, poor rural town in the nearby province of
Chimaltenango. It suffered badly during the war and remains
stunted with bleak economic prospects. EmbOffs met in
Quetzaltenango with local TSE leadership, observers from the
Organization of American States (OAS) and the European Union
(EU) as well as the UN verification mission in Guatemala
MINUGUA, which has had a long-term presence in
Quetzaltenango. Although headquartered in Quetzaltenango
these groups are handling much of western Guatemala. "Man on
the street" interviews were conducted in both Quetzaltenango
and San Jose Poaquil.

TSE and International Observers

SIPDIS
--------------


3. (SBU) TSE officials were generally positive about
preparations for coming elections. The head career official
for Quetzaltenango foresaw no problems with election-day
events. However, the local president of the municipal
electoral commission claimed the commission's efforts

suffered from a lack of resources. He had yet to receive any
funds to pay workers and could not make necessary repairs to
prepare voting centers, most of which lack electricity which
might leave them in the dark for the nighttime ballot count.
They both expressed doubts whether the National Civil Police
(PNC) will devote sufficient resources and worried about the
possibility of election-day and post-election violence,
particularly in the more rural areas. Nevertheless, they
expressed general confidence that they would find a way
around these problems and the elections would be free and
fair.


4. (C) International observers and MINUGUA shared confidence
in TSE procedures and safeguards and did not anticipate
significant problems at the voting centers. However, they
were unanimous in their assertions that voter intimidation
and manipulation was already happening and even common in
many areas. They claimed to have witnessed intimidation and
efforts by the FRG to influence individual voters through
food, fertilizer and other "gifts". They were most worried
about rural, under-policed areas, specifically mentioning
traditional FRG strongholds in nearby Totonicapan and San
Marcos provinces.


5. (C) International groups also mentioned the looming
threat of organized crime elements supporting individual
candidates, particularly in the border areas of Huehuetenango
where narcotics, guns and human trafficking are prevalent.
However, they lacked evidence or intimate knowledge of the
interest of such groups in the elections. They also
expressed concern over recent threats to violently stop
elections, made by still unpaid former civil self-defense
patrollers (ex-PAC) who they estimated number almost 200,000
in the area. While some speculated that the PNC was
responding to FRG pressure to stay out of their pre-election
antics and others believed the PNC simply lacked adequate
resources, none expressed confidence in their ability to
safeguard the elections and mediate ongoing intimidation of
voters.

"Man (and woman) on the Street"
--------------


6. (SBU) The ruling FRG commanded almost no support in our
informal survey in Quetzaltenango even though they won a
substantial majority in the 1999 second round presidential
vote. Voters we spoke with were primarily divided between
Alvaro Colom (UNE) and Oscar Berger (GANA). Among 44
potential voters, Colom captured 39% and Berger 29%. The
remaining voters either did not plan to vote, were undecided,
or planned on voting for one of four other candidates. Colom
supporters generally cited his honesty as the reason they
would vote for him. There was almost unanimous
disappointment expressed in the current government,
particularly in its failure to address security and crime
issues, which interviewees cited as most important to them.
The majority anticipated fraud in the coming elections,
particularly in the surrounding rural areas.


7. (SBU) The FRG commanded significantly more support in
rural San Jose Poaquil than it did in Quetzaltenango, but
again Colom was strongest in our informal poll. Of 22
individuals interviewed, 36% said that they would support
Colom while 31% preferred Rios Montt. However, even those
who supported Rios Montt were generally not happy with the
current government, although Portillo and the FRG did very
well in the 1999 elections in San Jose Poaquil. Only one
person identified herself as a Berger supporter. Remaining
interviewees claimed to support several other parties,
including the Christian Democrat party (DCG) which does not
have a presidential candidate, although the current mayor is
a member. Supporters of the FRG told us that recent
government projects such as a road motivated their support.
Colom supporters again expressed an appreciation for his
honesty and lack of corruption.


8. (C) Comment: Surveys and discussions revealed high
levels of confidence in election-day procedures and TSE
safeguards. However, the lack of faith in the PNC's ability
to provide adequate security, whether real or perceived,
could impact voting behavior. While we focused our
questioning on the presidential race, it is local elections
that are of greatest concern to voters. There is little
faith and marginal interest in the national government in
this area. The utter lack of credibility of the current
government and the widely held perception that the vote is
being manipulated by government distribution programs and FRG
intimidation threaten the credibility of results in an area
of the country that already feels disenfranchised with its
national government.
HAMILTON