Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
03GUATEMALA2728
2003-10-24 18:44:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Guatemala
Cable title:  

ELECTION SNAPSHOT #2: SOUTH COAST HOT SPOTS

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PHUM GT 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002728 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM GT
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT #2: SOUTH COAST HOT SPOTS


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GUATEMALA 002728

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM GT
SUBJECT: ELECTION SNAPSHOT #2: SOUTH COAST HOT SPOTS



1. Summary: Election officials in Suchitepequez and
Esquintla provinces generally anticipate a transparent
process, with minimal vote fraud. Election officials, OAS
observers, and men and women encountered in the street all
anticipate high voter turnout. Based on a tiny, unscientific
sample, Berger, Colom and Rios Montt, in that order, are the
front-runners at the presidential level; mayoral preferences
vary more widely by municipality. Election officials and
international observers are concerned about the potential for
isolated electoral conflict or violence in the municipalities
of Santa Lucia and Chicacao, two areas that have recently
experienced politically-motivated violence. Other areas of
concern to OAS observers are towns with incumbent FRG mayors
seeking re-election and rumors that the FRG has infiltrated
vote-counting centers (which TSE officials doubted). Another
unpredictable factor in the electoral brew is the strong
protest movement among disgruntled former paramilitaries
(ex-PAC) who await compensation from the government. End
Summary.

Background
--------------


2. On October 22 PolOff and ConOff visited the hot, densely
populated towns of Mazatenango (30,000 voters in 1999, 51%
participation) and San Antonio (16,000 voters in '99),
Suchitepequez province; and Santa Lucia Cotzumalguapa (37,000
voters, 33% participation) and Siquinala (7,300 voters, 65%
participation),Esquintla province. EmbOffs met with
election officials in Mazatenango and Santa Lucia, and OAS
election observation mission officials in San Antonio. All
these towns are located on the steamy southwestern coastal
plain dominated by sugar cane and rubber plantations, and
sugar mills. Although the FRG won in all these towns in
1999, Suchitepequez is a hotbed for anti-government protest
by former civil self-defense patrollers; and Santa Lucia
experienced anti-FRG electoral violence in 1999 when several
polling stations were attacked and the tabulated poll results
were burned. We also discussed electoral preferences with
random citizens encountered in the town centers of
Mazatenango and Siquinala.

Electoral Officials Prepared
--------------


3. TSE officials in Mazatenango and Santa Lucia reported few
concerns about electoral preparations. They enjoy close
coordination with local political organizers and parties,

police authorities and international observers to help insure
a smooth and fair electoral process. They reported no major
complaints received (some minor complaints about tearing down
rival campaign posters) and are confident the citizenry will
turn out in larger numbers. TSE officials in Santa Lucia
have concentrated all voting booths along one city block,
cordoned off by a reinforced police contingent, to prevent
attacks on dispersed voting centers from recurring. This
will permit better observation in the voting area, which will
be sealed at the close of the polls. Nevertheless, TSE
officials there are alert for possible attacks after the
polls close.


4. On another issue of recent concern at the national level,
TSE officials in Mazatenango discounted concerns in the

SIPDIS
capital about the availability of transportation to all
parties on election day. They report wide availability of
public and private bus lines as well as private van and truck
operators to transport voters on election day.

OAS Observers Concerned about the Vote Count
--------------


5. TSE and OAS observers generally express confidence that
the election will proceed smoothly on election day. However,
OAS observers in the region expressed concern about the
potential for electoral impropriety in towns in which FRG
mayors are seeking re-election (17 of 20 municipalities in
Suchitepequez). They also shared rumors that FRG has
infiltrated TSE election tabulation sites with its
supporters. TSE officials discounted this possibility,
citing redundant systems for vote tabulation at the
municipal, national and regional level. The TSE officials we
met were more concerned with monitoring and sanctioning cash
payments or other voter incentives offered on voting day.
All the people we met on the street planned to vote; few
expressed concern about electoral fraud.

Potential for Violence: Ex-PACS and Tight Races
-------------- ---


6. TSE and OAS officials were most concerned about the
potential for electoral conflict and violence in the isolated
municipalities of Santa Lucia and Chicacao, which have both
experienced political violence. According to the local TSE
representative, Santa Lucia is number three on the Ministry
of Government's national list of potential problem areas on
election day. The TSE expects a larger police presence as a
result, but have not yet been informed of actual police
numbers. He blamed recent political violence, including the
burning of local National Civil Police headquarters, on the
volatile mix of residents in Santa Lucia, which has
experienced high in-migration of poor Guatemalans in search
of jobs.


7. In nearby Chicacao municipality, 2,000 disgruntled ex-PAC
burned down the municipal building on May 5 to protest
non-payment of expected compensation. In other nearby towns
on the same and the following day, ex-PAC sequestered a mayor
for 16 hours and the governor for 6 hours, for the same
reason. During their visit to Mazatenango, EmbOffs observed
a seething crowd of angry, sun-bitten campesinos which filled
the claustrophobic central square. The crowd of 150-200
ex-PAC was being harangued by a speaker accusing the
government of "trickery" and demanding payment for their
"national service" as paramilitaries during the internal
conflict. The protesters, a few armed with machetes, later
seized control of a local radio station for several hours.
Press reports accused a local government official of making
death threats to journalists for "anti-FRG" coverage. TSE
and OAS contacts discounted the notion that compensated
ex-PACs will vote solidly for any one party, saying the
motivation for their protests are pure self-interest. Other
parties have promised to respect the current government's
commitment to pay the ex-PAC in two further tranches. Our
TSE and OAS contacts claimed that members of the Democratic

SIPDIS
Social Participation Party of presidential candidate Miguel
Angel Lee are encouraging further protest by local ex-PAC in
Chicacao and Mazatenango.

Voter Preferences Vary Locally: Man in the Street
-------------- --------------


8. Electoral official and observer predictions and our
discussions with people in and around the central squares of
Mazatenango, San Antonio and Siquinala revealed great
variation between municipalities. In Mazatenango and San
Antonio, none of the people we met on the street said they
would vote for the FRG. In Mazatenango, some cited as their
reason the corruption of the current FRG mayor, who was
suspended for five months while under investigation. In
Siquinala, however, several people we met support the FRG at
the local level. Two women in indigenous clothing (rare in
this region, but Siquinala is home to a community of returned
Guatemalan refugees from Mexico) said they would vote for the
current FRG mayor and for Oscar Berger for President. Two
men told us they supported the FRG, and said the Unionista
and PAN candidates for mayor were also contenders. In Santa
Lucia, TSE officials told us the mayoral race is between the
FRG and URNG.


9. At the presidential level, Berger (6) and Alvaro Colom
(5) of the UNE were the most popular presidential candidates
in both towns, followed by Rios Montt (2). One man refused
to divulge his preferences, and another turned out to be a
Salvadoran attempting to migrate illegally to the U.S. The
TSE official in Mazatenango put the UNE in front, followed by

SIPDIS
the FRG and GANA. In Santa Lucia, the TSE predicted a Berger
win, with Rios Montt in second place over Colom. At the
national level, no one we met expressed a preference for the
PAN candidate, despite presidential candidate Lopez Rodas'
demagogic emphasis on citizen security. All the major
candidates had recently visited the region and most had
turned out good crowds of curiosity-seekers. OAS observers
predicted the region would favor, in descending order, the
GANA, UNE and FRG.

Comment
--------------


10. This visit reinforces the notion of a divide between
local and national politics. Electoral officials here seem
confident about pre-electoral preparations, convinced that
election violence is likely to be isolated at the municipal
level. Our interviews with men and women on the street also
revealed a separation in voter intentions, with some voters
planning to vote for one party for mayor and a different one
for president. This situation is linked to the performance
of local FRG mayors. Interestingly, even in towns with
popular FRG mayors, Rios Montt may not benefit from a
party-line vote. Also notable was the fact that, apart from
some voters' concerns with municipal corruption (in
Mazatenango) and differing opinions about public works, very
few of the voters we spoke with cited any national issues
motivating their presidential candidate preferences. All
agreed that jobs and security are important national issues,
but few cited these issues as reasons for their presidential
preferences.
HAMILTON